and operating challenges for utilities like Edison International. But California’s aggressive clean energy goals also offer Edison more growth opportunities than most utilities. Edison’s plans for $5 billion of annual capital investment and good regulatory support will generate 6% annual earnings growth beyond 2021. But this growth trajectory could be lumpy as regulatory delays, wildfire issues, and California energy policy changes lead to shifts in spending and cost recovery.
New equity issuances in 2019 and 2020 in part to fund its $2.4 billion contribution to the state wildfire insurance fund and a higher allowed equity structure in rates weighed on earnings the last two years. But Edison now has most of its financing in place to execute its large growth plan, which ultimately will drive earnings and dividend growth.
Growth opportunities at Southern California Edison address grid safety, renewable energy, electric vehicles, distributed generation, and energy storage. Wildfire safety investments alone could reach $4 billion during the next four years. In August, regulators approved nearly all of Edison’s 2021-23 investment plans. Ongoing regulatory proceedings will address wildfire-specific investments and Edison’s 2024 investment plan.
Financial Strength
Edison’s credit metrics are well within investment-grade range. California wildfire legislation and recent regulatory rulings have removed the overhang that threatened Edison’s investment-grade ratings in early 2019. Edison has kept its balance sheet strong with substantial equity issuances since 2019. Edison issued $2.4 billion of new equity throughout 2019 at prices in line with our fair value estimate. This financing supported both its growth investments and half of its $2.4 billion contribution to the California wildfire insurance fund. The new equity in 2019 also allowed Southern California Edison to adjust its allowed capital structure to 52% equity from 48% equity for ratemaking purposes, leading to higher revenues and partially offsetting the earnings dilution. The board approved a $0.10 per share annualized increase, or 4%, for 2021, the same increase as it approved for 2020.
Bull Says
- With some $5 billion of planned annual investment during the next four years, it is projected 6% average annual average earnings growth in 2021-24.
- Edison has raised its dividend from $1.35 annualized in 2013 to $2.65 in 2021, demonstrating management’s commitment to meeting and maintaining a 45%-55% target payout ratio on utility earnings.
- California’s focus on renewable energy, energy storage, and distributed generation should bolster Edison’s investment opportunities in transmission and distribution upgrades for many years.
Company Profile
Edison International is the parent company of Southern California Edison, an electric utility that supplies power to 5 million customers in a 50,000-square-mile area of Southern California, excluding Los Angeles. Edison Energy owns interests in nonutility businesses that deal in energy-related products and services. In 2014, Edison International sold its wholesale generation subsidiary Edison Mission Energy out of bankruptcy to NRG Energy.
(Source: Morningstar)
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