Category: Global stocks

Global Stock refer to share that are traded on multiple exchanges with different currencies. For example, if a publicly-traded company issues shares in dollars on the New York Stock Exchange and in pounds on the London Stock Exchange, it is issuing global registered shares. Global stock to a portfolio offers diversification and may provide higher returns. Global stock markets may experience higher levels of volatility than other domestic markets with bigger swings to both the upside and downside.

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Global stocks Shares

QBE manages a sizable investment portfolio of about USD 27 billion as of June, 2022

Business Strategy & Outlook

QBE Insurance is an international property and casualty insurance company with around USD 20 billion of annual gross written premiums. It writes about 25% of its annual premiums in its home region of Australia and New Zealand, which accounts for more than half of the groups underwriting profit. Other key markets include North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific. QBE is predominantly focused on specialty insurance lines, but the offering is extremely wide ranging across property, auto insurance, agriculture, public/product liability, professional indemnity, workers compensation, marine, energy and aviation, and accident and health. The size and diversity of insurance is built on the back of hundreds of acquisitions made over decades. The extended period of global growth via acquisition failed to deliver the cost-synergies or scale benefits management had hoped. The strategy has rightfully shifted, and progress is being made in turning the business around. The balance sheet has been strengthened and operational efficiency improving. The way senior management has reshaped insurance portfolios, cut costs, tightened underwriting standards and increased accountability across the group is likable. In addition to divesting several businesses, a greater focus on returns has led to group wide improvement in attritional claims. While reducing premiums, decisions to reduce exposure to certain areas–for example, large commercial properties, and properties in higher risk areas–has improved profitability and reduced volatility.

The performance of investment markets brings another element of volatility to earnings. QBE manages a sizable investment portfolio of about USD 27 billion as of June 30, 2022, being both policyholder and shareholder funds. Around 90% is held in cash and fixed-interest investments, with the remainder spread across equities and alternatives. Consequently, the group’s profitability is at risk from changes in interest rates, credit spreads, and–to a lesser extent–equity market. The returns are to remain suppressed in the short-term but will gradually recover as global cash rates normalize.

Financial Strengths

QBE Insurance is in sound financial health. After a multi decade strategy of growth by acquisition, a much-needed period of consolidation has included the exit from Latin America, North American personal lines, a number of Asian markets where the group lacks scale, and underwriting agencies and travel insurance in Australia and New Zealand. QBE Insurance held USD 3 billion in gross debt with a debt/equity ratio of 32.4% at June 30, 2022. Debt/total capital of 24.5% is within management’s 15%-30% target. QBE’s prescribed capital amount, or PCA, multiple is 1.77 times, at the top of the group’s 1.6-1.8 times target range.

Bulls Say

  • Rising insurance premiums, underwriting discipline, productivity initiatives, and focus on profitable growth, to drive consistent excess returns.
  • The U.S. operations have significant upside potential. There could be few years of disappointment to eventually lead to premium rates reflective of the underlying insured risks.
  • The strong balance sheet and positive premium pricing supporting dividend growth and the return of surplus capital to shareholders.    

Company Description

QBE Insurance is an international property and casualty insurance company. It writes about 25% of its annual gross written premiums in its home region of Australia and New Zealand, which accounts for more than half of the group’s underwriting profit. Other key regions include North America and Europe. QBE Insurance offers a number of personal, commercial, and specialty lines, including property, auto insurance, agriculture, public/product liability, professional indemnity, workers compensation, marine, energy and aviation, and accident and health.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice. The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

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Global stocks

Qantas Frequent Flyer is essentially a capital-light business attached to a capital-intensive flying business

Business Strategy & Outlook

The COVID-19 pandemic has wreaked havoc on the global airline industry. Lockdowns, border restrictions, and social distancing measures have clipped Qantas’ wings. Stringent Australian entry requirements for international arrivals and an effective ban on noncitizen, nonpermanent resident arrivals decimated passenger revenue, and despite aggressive cost-cutting, operating deleverage led to significant after-tax losses in 2021 and 2022. Qantas remains well-positioned to participate in the recovery as skies gradually reopen. A continued easing of international border restrictions will lead to a boon in tourism. The domestic business, of which Qantas typically captures around two thirds market share, to exceed pre-COVID-19 levels around fiscal 2023. The international recovery is to be more gradual. Prior to the international border reopening in February 2022, Qantas’ international business was virtually grounded. While there is room for optimism over loosening restrictions and pent-up demand, it is believed the recovery will prove protracted, and expect Qantas’ international flying business to exceed pre-COVID-19 levels around fiscal 2024.

The Qantas’ loyalty program, Qantas Frequent Flyer, to some extent cushion earnings volatility in the flying business. Despite a lack of flying activity, the loyalty business is to remain profitable and deliver stable cash flows. Qantas Frequent Flyer is essentially a capital-light business attached to a capital-intensive flying business. Consumers want to earn loyalty points when they fly, and status benefits are important to corporate passengers. The program generates earnings from the sale of points to hundreds of partners, including banks, supermarkets, telephone companies, and department stores. This offers more ways to redeem and earn points, attracting more customers, which in turn attracts new partners–a network effect but not enough to warrant a moat for the group.

Financial Strengths

Qantas’ balance sheet is in a strong position, bolstered by an equity raising in June 2020. While the dilutive impact of the raising has negative consequences for shareholder value, the additional capital positions the company in a comfortable position to navigate near-term challenges. Qantas boasts a cash balance of AUD 3.3 billion at the end of June 2022, a debt book with no covenants, and a further AUD 1.3 billion in undrawn facilities. Qantas has aggressively cut operating costs to weather the coronavirus storm, targeting AUD 15 billion in cost savings over the three years to fiscal 2023–largely temporary savings in rightsizing and operating costs amid a lack of flying activity. Qantas’ freight and loyalty have also cushioned earnings volatility. There’s a return to profitability and a reinstatement of dividends in late-fiscal 2023.

Bulls Say

  • Qantas’ earnings are highly leveraged to improving macroeconomic conditions and unrestricted air travel.
  • The two-brand Qantas and Jetstar strategy provides flexibility to align capacity and costs with prevailing demand and economic conditions, without affecting the Qantas brand and service perception.
  • The Qantas Frequent Flyer program continues to deliver strong earnings and cash flow, underpinning dominant domestic market share.   

Company Description

Qantas Airways is Australia’s largest domestic airline with typically a two thirds market share, effectively competing in a duopoly with Virgin. The company operates a multibrand strategy, with low-cost carrier Jetstar complementing the full-service Qantas brand. Its frequent-flyer loyalty program continues to expand with new partnerships, which are integral to retaining customer loyalty for its core airline business.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice. The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Global stocks Shares

News Corporation is better placed than peers in the publishing space to transition its print business to the digital age

Business Strategy & Outlook

News Corp operates in an industry undergoing significant changes, with the traditional print-based publishing business model being dismantled by proliferating news and information outlets in the digital space. This is compounded by ever improving means for consumers to access them, driven by mobility and continuing device innovation. Consequently, News Corporation faces enormous structural headwinds, with consumers migrating from newspapers to the digital arena and advertisers following suit. Having said that, News Corporation is better placed than peers in the publishing space to transition its print business to the digital age. It has some of the most venerable masthead brands in the industry (The Wall Street Journal, The Times), and boasts significant editorial resources, especially compared with those of its rivals, which have been dwindling. The company’s financial position is solid, having split in 2013 from Twenty-First Century Fox, with no debt on the balance sheet. Even with the recent consolidation of Foxtel’s debt and a string of acquisitions, News boasts sufficient financial strength to transition the business to the digital age while also exploring opportunities to diversify away from the traditional newspaper business. Recent efforts to simplify the group are also positive, while a USD 1 billion buyback was announced in August 2021. 

While News Corporation deals with the structural challenges facing its publishing business, the company was partly shielded by its Australian pay-television operations in 65%-owned Fox Sports and Foxtel. Unfortunately, these two businesses are also coming under severe pressure from digital streaming alternatives to pay TV. On the positive side, the 61%-owned REA Group’s growth outlook remains robust in the online real estate classifieds space and the Move (acquired in November 2014) is making strong progress in the U.S. digital property

Financial Strengths

News Corporation is in solid financial health. It currently has a net debt position of just USD 1.2 billion, or 0.7 times EBITDA. Furthermore, the legacy newspaper publishing business is still generating solid free cash flow, albeit at a declining rate, augmented by resilient earnings from REA Group. Consequently, the company is well placed financially as it attempts to transition the publishing business model to the digital age, while also exploring opportunities to diversify away from it. In November 2021, management began a share buyback. Even after closing several acquisitions in 2022, News can repurchase up to USD 1 billion worth of shares and still keep net debt/EBITDA below 1.5. However, the last time News instituted a buyback in 2013 due to a “lazy” balance sheet, it only repurchased 14% of the USD 500 million program, even though the stock price was much lower during that time.

Bulls Say

  • News Corporation’s strong financial position and still-solid free cash generation separate the company from its s
  • The solid balance sheet provides management with critical flexibility, as it attempts to navigate the treacherous
  • News Corporation also boasts a number of resilient online property classified assets in Australia and the U.S., ones that add to its cash flow profile and provide a template for the kind of businesses that management wishes to acquire as part of a diversification strategy.

Company Description

News Corporation is a diversified media conglomerate with a large presence in the U.S, the U.K., and Australia. Key brands include The Wall Street Journal, Herald Sun, and The Times. The company also has a strong presence in the Australian pay-TV market through Fox Sports and Foxtel (both 65%- owned), while its 62%-owned REA Group is the dominant real estate classified business in Australia. In addition, it owns HarperCollins, one of the largest book publishers globally, and also has a substantial digital property advertising business (Move) in the U.S.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice. The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Global stocks

Mercedes-Benz limit exposure to downturns suffered by mass-market auto companies because wealthier customers’ spending is less sensitive to recessions

Business Strategy & Outlook

Daimler AG completed the spinoff of its truck and bus operations on Dec. 10, 2021 and changed its name to Mercedes-Benz Group AG on Feb. 1, 2022. In 2021, the truck and bus business, now called Daimler Truck AG, accounted for 20% of consolidated revenue including discontinued operations and 11% of group adjusted EBIT. The remaining operations of Mercedes-Benz Group include premium and luxury passenger vehicles and light commercial vans as well as Mercedes-Benz Mobility, which includes financial services and other mobility services like ride-hailing. The highly regarded Mercedes-Benz brand is one of the top luxury automobile names in the world. The firm is also a European leader in commercial vans. Even so, Mercedes faces stiff competition in all of its markets. The company operates in the cyclical, capital-intense, highly competitive passenger vehicle industry where raw material commodity costs can be volatile and unionized labor can be expensive.

Geographically diverse sales reduce exposure to the economic conditions of any one region. Even so, premium brands such as Mercedes-Benz limit exposure to downturns suffered by mass-market auto companies because wealthier customers’ spending is less sensitive to recessions. Global population growth of high-net-worth individuals has averaged 5%, increasing Mercedes’ addressable market, faster than the 1%-3% rate it can be estimated for long-term global light-vehicle demand growth. New product is critical to spurring consumer interest and can help results even in an economic downturn. Mercedes-Benz launches new or significantly refreshed models in various markets around the world every year. Research and development spending, including capitalized development costs, is substantial, averaging roughly 6% of sales, which is a necessary part of a long-term strategy. Environmental legislation worldwide forces automakers to design vehicles with more efficient combustion engines and electrified powertrains. By 2030, the company says it will be “ready to go all-electric.”

Financial Strengths

Mercedes-Benz’ balance sheet to be in good shape. The company maintains a substantial cash balance and healthy availability on bank lines of credit. To remain competitive, automakers need high liquidity to fund R&D and capital investment to support product launches throughout economic cycles. At the end of 2021, the company had net industrial liquidity of EUR 21.0 billion (cash and credit line availability less debt). The company has healthy liquidity. The industrial business’ total adjusted debt/EBITDAR, which takes into consideration rent expense and operating leases, has averaged 0.7 times since 2011, which can be viewed as strong for a capital-intensive, cyclical passenger vehicle maker. Financial liability maturities, including financial services, appear to be well laddered and matched with maturing financial loan assets. Mercedes’ consolidated capital structure is complex from its captive finance operations, which support industrial operations’ sales by providing credit to dealers and consumers but also have banking operations and other financial services. Aside from its balance sheet cash hoard, the company relies mostly on notes and bonds for its funding requirements but also uses lines of credit, deposits from banking customers, and commercial paper. The consolidated capital structure’s total debt/total capital historical average since 2011 is 63.0%. Taking Mercedes’ substantial cash position into account, net debt/total capital averages 51.6%. With the financial-services business accounted for on an equity basis, Mercedes’ total debt/total capital averages 13.8%, while net debt/total capital averages only negative 11.5%, denoting an average net cash position.

Bulls Say

  • Mercedes-Benz is a highly recognizable, well-respected global luxury brand, giving the company a modest buffer against the cyclical downturns of auto sales.
  • Mercedes’ strong R&D capabilities and electrified powertrain technologies should prove valuable because of global clean-air legislation.
  • Management’s long-term return on sales targets are higher than the model, so upside potential exists to the valuation.

Company Description

Based in Stuttgart, Germany, Mercedes-Benz Group AG makes premium passenger vehicles and commercial vans. Brands include Mercedes-Benz, AMG, and Maybach. Mercedes-Benz Mobility provides the company’s dealers and its customers with vehicle financing as well as mobility services in ride hailing, car sharing, and charging. Mercedes owns 11.9% of Aston Martin and 9.6% of Beijing Automotive Group. Li Shufu, chairman of Chinese automaker Geely Automobile, owns 9.7% of Mercedes-Benz. Other major shareholders include Kuwait Investment Authority at 6.8% and Beijing Automotive group at 5.0%.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice. The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

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Global stocks Shares

Hilton has added several brands in the past few years including Tru, which launched in January 2016 and already has 212 hotels opened as of the end of 2021

fintech icon on abstract financial technology background represent Blockchain and Fintech Investment Financial Internet Technology Concept.

Business Strategy & Outlook

While the coronavirus pandemic and inflation present headwinds to industry travel demand in the near term, Hilton’s brand intangible asset (which underlies its narrow moat rating) is strengthening, along with improving travel demand in 2022. Hilton’s room share expansion to be among the industry’s fastest over the next decade because of an industry-leading pipeline, favorable next-generation traveler position supported by newer brands, and its highly rated loyalty program. The company currently has mid-single-digit share of global hotel rooms with 15%-20% share of all industry pipeline rooms under construction.

Further, its U.S. (70% of total 2021 room count) share of existing rooms is low double digits, with a pipeline share of rooms under construction at 20%-25%. Hilton’s room growth averaging mid-single digits over the next decade, above the 1.8% supply increase it is estimated for the U.S. industry, implying market share gains ahead for Hilton. In addition to an intangible brand advantage, Hilton has switching cost barriers (a second source of its narrow moat rating) through its asset-light model of mostly managed or franchised rooms. These asset-light rooms not only offer high returns on invested capital, but also contract lengths of 20 years that are costly to terminate. Hilton’s intangible brand asset and switching cost advantage to strengthen, driven by new hotel brands and its highly rated loyalty program. Hilton has added several brands in the past few years, including Tru, which launched in January 2016 and already has 212 hotels opened as of the end of 2021. Hilton also has a solid loyalty membership base at 139 million as of the end of June 2022, which drove around 62% of total room nights during the year.

Financial Strengths

Hilton’s spinoffs of owned assets at the beginning of 2017 has left the company with around 90% of its adjusted EBITDA derived from fees versus just 52% previous to the spinoff. Given the less capital-intensive nature of franchise and managed assets relative to owned ones, free cash flow as a percentage of sales and the cash flow cushion are now higher. Hilton’s financial health has improved, with its pre-pandemic 2019 debt/adjusted EBITDA at 3.5 times versus the 7.3 times ratio in 2015. Hilton’s financial health remains good despite COVID-19 challenges. Hilton asset-light business model allows the company to operate with low fixed costs and stable unit growth, helping it generate over $600 million in free cash flow to equity in 2020, despite a 57% decline in revPAR. Hilton improved its liquidity profile during the early stages of the pandemic outbreak, tapping the $1.8 billion that remained on its credit facility (which has since been paid), suspending dividends and share repurchases, with the former resuming in May 2022 and the latter having already started in March 2022), and raising and refinancing debt. As a result, Hilton has near $3 billion in liquidity, with no debt maturing in 2023-24. As travel demand rebounds it is expected Hilton’s debt/adjusted EBITDA to improve to 3.6 times in 2022 from the elevated 5.4 level in 2021 (as a result of COVID-19), ending 2023 at 2.8 times.

Bulls Say

  • Hilton’s current mid-single-digit share of hotel industry rooms is set to increase, as the company controls about one fifth of the rooms under construction in the global hotel industry pipeline.
  • Hilton is well positioned to benefit from the increasing presence of next-generation travelers though emerging lifestyle brands Home2, Curio, Canopy, Tru, Tapestry Collection, Motto, and Tempo.
  • Hilton has a strong loyalty program with 139 million members at the end of June 2022 that constitutes around 60% of total room nights.

Company Description

Hilton Worldwide Holdings operates 1,074,791 rooms across its 18 brands addressing the midscale through luxury segments as of Dec. 31, 2021. Hampton and Hilton are the two largest brands by total room count at 28% and 21%, respectively, as of Dec. 31, 2021. Recent brands launched over the last few years include Home2, Curio, Canopy, Tru, and Tempo. Managed and franchised represent the vast majority of adjusted EBITDA, predominantly from the Americas regions.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice. The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

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Global stocks Shares

Fastenal has a first-mover advantage in both vending and on-site services, introducing the former in 2008 and the latter in 1992

Business Strategy & Outlook

Since opening its first fasteners store in 1967, Fastenal has built one of the largest industrial distribution businesses in the United States. For many years, Fastenal’s growth story was driven by its branch count, which now stands just under 1,800. While this expansive footprint is still an important component of Fastenal’s business model, other strategies–including expanding its product portfolio, its vending and inventory management services, and, most recently, its on-site program–have become increasingly important growth drivers. The benefits of Fastenal’s vending, inventory management, and on-site services are twofold: Not only do these services drive incremental revenue, they also embed Fastenal in its customers’ procurement processes, which supports higher retention rates and pricing power. Fastenal has a first-mover advantage in both vending and on-site services, introducing the former in 2008 and the latter in 1992 (although the on-site strategy did not become a focused strategy until the past few years), and a long growth runway for both offerings can be seen. In addition to growth through its vending and on-site initiatives, Fastenal is well positioned to benefit from customer consolidation trends. 

In recent years, customers have been consolidating their maintenance, repair, and operations, or MRO, spending with large distributors to leverage their purchasing power and increase operational efficiency. With its national scale, broad product portfolio, and inventory management services, Fastenal can capitalize on this trend and take market share from smaller and less capable distributors. Because Fastenal’s sales mix is increasingly skewing more toward large national accounts, on-site programs, and more price-competitive MRO products, the company’s gross margins are likely to come under pressure. However, the combination of higher sales volume and containment of selling, general, and administrative costs provides Fastenal the opportunity to realize strong operating leverage and expand operating margins. Fastenal’s operating margin is to reach 21% by midcycle year.

Financial Strengths

Fastenal has an outstanding debt balance of approximately $390 million. It is leveraged at only 0.1 times 2021 EBITDA, which is very conservative relative to the other industrial distributors. Fastenal’s earnings provide substantial headroom to service debt obligations. During fiscal 2021, Fastenal incurred only about $10 million of interest expense and generated about $1.4 billion of EBITDA, which equates to an extremely comfortable interest coverage ratio. Even with its expansive store footprint and cyclical end markets, Fastenal has a proven ability to generate free cash flow (defined as operating cash flow less capital expenditures) throughout the cycle. Indeed, it has generated positive free cash flow every year since 2003. Given its conservative balance sheet and consistent free cash flow generation, Fastenal’s financial health is satisfactory.

Bulls Say

  • Vending and on-site programs should provide a long growth runway for Fastenal.
  • Fastenal can capitalize on its national scale, broad product portfolio, and inventory-management services to take market share from smaller and less capable distributors. 
  • Despite serving cyclical end markets, Fastenal’s business model generates strong free cash flow throughout the cycle. Fastenal is likely to continue to use its cash flow to fund a shareholder-friendly capital allocation strategy.

Company Description

Fastenal opened its first fastener store in 1967 in Winona, Minnesota. Since then, Fastenal has greatly expanded its footprint as well as its products and services. Today, Fastenal serves its 400,000 active customers through approximately 1,760 branches, over 1,400 on-site locations, and 14 distribution centers. Since 1993, the company has added other product categories, but fasteners remain its largest category at about 30%- 35% of sales. Fastenal also offers customers supply-chain solutions, such as vending and vendor-managed inventory.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice. The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Global stocks

Marriott has an attractive recurring-fee business model with high returns on invested capital and significant switching costs for property owners

Finance and Economy Chart for Dollar Gold Euro Currencies Trading View

Business Strategy & Outlook

While COVID-19 and inflation have potential to impact near-term travel demand in many regions of the world, Marriott can be expected to expand room and revenue share in the hotel industry over the next decade. The constructive stance is driven by a favorable next-generation traveler position supported by renovated and newer brands, as Marriott has added several new brands since 2007 and renovated a meaningful percentage of core Marriott and Courtyard hotels in the past few years. Also, Marriott is having an industry-leading loyalty program, with over 160 million members (as of the end of 2021), which incentivizes third-party hotel owners to join the company’s brands. Additionally, the acquisition of Starwood (closed in September 2016) has strengthened Marriott’s long-term brand advantage, as Starwood’s global luxury portfolio complemented Marriott’s dominant upper-scale position in North America. A room growth for Marriott can be seen averaging mi single digits over the next decade (above the 1.8% increase model for the U.S. industry the next 10 years), supported by the company having 18% of all global industry rooms under construction, well above its high-single-digit existing unit share, as of the end of 2021. 

With 97% of the combined rooms managed or franchised, Marriott has an attractive recurring-fee business model with high returns on invested capital and significant switching costs for property owners. Managed and franchised hotels have low fixed costs and capital requirements, along with contracts lasting 20 years that have meaningful cancellation costs for owners. Cyclicality and overbuilding in the industry present risks for shareholders. Typically, U.S. lodging recoveries last five to nine years, but the upcycle ending 2019 lasted 10 years.

Financial Strengths

Marriott’s financial health remains in good shape, despite COVID-19 challenges. Marriott entered 2020 with debt/adjusted EBITDA of 3.1 times, as its asset-light business model allows the company to operate with low fixed costs and stable unit growth, but reduced demand due to COVID-19 caused the ratio to end the year at 9.1 times. During 2020, Marriott did not sit still; rather, it acted to increase its liquidity profile, including suspending dividends and share repurchases, deferring discretionary capital expenditures, raising debt, and receiving credit card fees from partners up front. As travel demand recovered in 2021, so too did Marriott’s debt leverage, with debt/adjusted EBITDA ending the year at 4.5 times. If demand once again plummeted, Marriott has enough liquidity to operate at zero revenue through 2023. The banking partners will work to provide Marriott any additional liquidity as needed, given the company holds a brand advantage (source of its narrow moat), which will drive healthy cash flow as travel demand returns. Marriott’s debt/adjusted EBITDA is to average 2.0 times over the next five years. The company is generating over $15.0 billion in free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditures) over the next five years (2022-26), which it will use to reduce debt, fund dividends equal to around 35% of its earnings during that time (dividend payments have resumed in 2022), as well as repurchasing shares (repurchase activity has started again in 2022).

Bulls Say

  • Marriott is positioned to benefit from the increasing presence of the next-generation traveler through emerging lifestyle brands Autograph, Tribute, Moxy, Aloft, and Element.
  • Marriott stands to benefit from worker flexibility driving higher long-term travel demand. The constructive stance is formed by higher income occupations being the most likely industries to continue to work from remote locations. 
  • Marriott has a high exposure to recurring managed and franchised fees, which have high switching costs and generate strong ROICs. 

Company Description

Marriott operates about 1.5 million rooms across roughly 30 brands. At the end of 2021, luxury represented 10% of total rooms, while full service, limited service, and timeshares were 43%, 46%, and 2% of all units, respectively. Marriott, Courtyard, and Sheraton are the largest brands, while Autograph, Tribute, Moxy, Aloft, and Element are newer lifestyle brands. Managed and franchised represent 97% of total rooms. North America makes up two thirds of total rooms. Managed, franchise, and incentive fees represent the vast majority of revenue and profitability for the company.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice. The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Global stocks

Costa’s International segment operates farms in Morocco and China, and earns royalty income from licensing its blueberry genetics

Business Strategy & Outlook

Costa’s strong earnings growth to continue over the near term as expansionary investment in farms both domestically and in the firm’s China and Morocco businesses begins to bear fruit. However, Costa’s customer base is highly concentrated, and its products highly commoditized, and the company has carved an economic moat required to sustainably derive economic profits. Despite the potential for short-term fluctuations, which are inherent in an industry exposed to changes in weather and climate, the Australian fruit and vegetable industry has enjoyed a consistent trajectory, growing its value at an average of 3.4% per year over the past decade. Similar industry growth over the next decade is expected, underpinned by population growth, inflationary price increases, and some per capita increases in fruit and vegetable consumption.

It is expected expect Costa can outpace industry growth and capture market share, at least in the near term. Costa is growing its Australian market share to around 20% over the next five years, from 15% currently. However, this comes at a cost. With current projects such as the Monarto facility expansion increasing its footprint in mushrooms and ongoing berry expansion, Costa’s growth activities are capital intensive. The firm’s capital expenditure has expanded from around 5% of sales in 2016 to 11% in 2021, and the remaining is in the high single digits in the near term as the firm continues to ramp up growth with new projects. Costa’s International segment operates farms in Morocco and China, and earns royalty income from licensing its blueberry genetics. The Morocco operation is principally an export business, supplying blueberries to the U.K. and continental Europe, while China berry farming sales remain predominantly local. A significant growth is expected in the international segment over the short term as Costa continues to ramp up its international facilities. While labor costs are lower in these regions, without the biosecurity regulations of Australia, international farming is more exposed to import competition.

Financial Strengths

Costa’s balance sheet is in good shape. Net debt/EBITDA lifted to 1.8 in calendar 2021 as elevated capital expenditure, including the AUD 237 million 2PH Farms acquisition, was partially offset by the AUD 185 million equity raise. Costa’s AUD 176 million equity raising in calendar 2019 has placed the firm in a much more conservative position–suitable for a firm needing to ride out short-term fluctuations, which are inherent in an industry exposed to changes in weather and climate. Costa’s fiscal 2019 net debt/EBITDA would have ballooned to over 3.6 without the raising. This is much higher than the firm’s target range of 1.5-2.0, and would breach the estimate of the firm’s covenants, it is expected to be in the vicinity of 3.5. Costa’s balance sheet is well placed to underpin a dividend payout ratio of around 60% of underlying earnings per share. Conservative management of the balance sheet is also prudent considering the capital requirements ahead of the firm. With current projects such as the Monarto facility expansion increasing its footprint in mushrooms, investment in the Guyra tomato glasshouse, continued berry expansion, and ongoing international expenditure, Costa’s growth activities are capital intensive. The firm’s growth capital expenditure has expanded from around AUD 30 million in 2016 to AUD 128 million in 2021. While growth expenditure dipped to AUD 50 million in calendar 2020 as the firm tightened growth expenditure amid COVID-19 uncertainty, this expanded to more elevated levels around AUD 80 million in calendar 2021, not including acquisitions. A near-term growth capital expenditure of above AUD 60 million as the firm continues to ramp up expansionary projects.

Bulls Say

  • Costa’s strong market share in key categories mitigates its high customer concentration risk
  • International berry expansion to China is running according to Costa’s original five-year plan, and appears set for significant growth. 
  • Costa is well positioned to capitalize on high growth in emergent product categories, such as blackberries.

Company Description

Costa Group is the largest fresh produce company in Australia, with an estimated market share of over 15%, principally supplying fresh fruit and vegetables to the major Australian supermarkets. While supplemented by third-party growers, the firm’s products are predominantly sourced from around 5,000 planted hectares of farmland, 30 hectares of tomato glasshouse facilities, and mushroom-growing facilities across Australia. Costa also operates berry farms in Morocco and China as part of its international business.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice. The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

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Global stocks Shares

Insurance Australia Group is a general insurer with around AUD 13.5 billion of annual gross written premiums, operating in Australia and New Zealand

Portrait of handsome man smiling and listening to female manager while discussing contract in meeting, copy space

Business Strategy & Outlook

Insurance Australia Group is a general insurer with around AUD 13.5 billion of annual gross written premiums, operating in Australia and New Zealand. Insurance Australia Group is a custodian of well-known heritage brands which include NRMA, CGU, SGIO, SGIC, Swann Insurance in Australia; and State, NZI, AMI, Lumley in New Zealand. Some brands are specific to certain states, but at a group level the insurer carries concentrated weather and earthquake risk in Australia and New Zealand. General insurance in Australia and New Zealand is mature, with limited organic growth opportunities. The group’s strategy is focused on enhancing the digital offering to ensure simpler and faster quotes, claim processing, and to ensure the large insurer remains competitive on price. In response to changes in the way customers engage with their insurer, productivity improvements remain a key priority. Competition across both the direct-to-consumer and the broker channels is intense. A number of large global insurers are increasingly targeting the broker channel, such as AIG, Zurich, and Chubb. Others have meanwhile leveraged already established brands by offering white labeled products, or gone direct to market with their own low-cost offering.

Large insured events occur without warning, and Insurance Australia Group lacks meaningful geographic diversification outside of Australia and New Zealand. Reinsurance protection mitigates risks to some extent, but can be expensive, particularly following large events. The performance of investment markets brings another element of volatility to earnings. Insurance Australia Group manages a sizable investment portfolio of about AUD 12 billion, being both policyholder and shareholder funds. The majority is held in cash and fixed-interest investments, with the remainder spread across equities and alternatives. Consequently, the group’s profitability is at risk from changes in interest rates, credit spreads, and– to a lesser extent–equity markets.

Financial Strengths

Insurance Australia Group remains in good financial health following an equity raising in November 2020. As of June 30, 2022, the company had gross debt and hybrids of about AUD 2.0 billion, representing a gearing ratio (debt and hybrids/tangible capital) of 40%, within its 30%-40% target range. As of June 30, 2022, IAG’s prescribed capital amount multiple was 1.8 times, the top-end of the group’s long-term benchmark of 1.6-1.8 times. The common equity Tier 1 multiple was 0.97 times, within the target range of 0.9-1.1 times and well above the regulatory minimum of 0.6 times. After an additional release of business interruption provisions and AUD 350 million share buyback, the common equity Tier 1 multiple is closer to 1 time. Insurance Australia Group issued Berkshire Hathaway with 90 million new shares at AUD 5.57 per share in June 2015, which gives Berkshire a 3.7% position in the group. Berkshire is limited to a maximum holding in Insurance Australia Group of 14.9% and must at least maintain its initial 3.7% stake during the term of the 10-year quota share.

Bulls Say

  • The firm’s underwriting discipline, productivity initiatives, and focus on profitable growth will see returns consistently return its cost of capital. 
  • IAG has collectively removed downside risk from 32.5% of its business while retaining exposure to earnings upside via profit share arrangements
  • A benign claims environment with a lower incidence of major catastrophes considerably boost underwriting profits.

Company Description

Insurance Australia Group is the largest domestic general insurer by gross written premium operating in Australia and New Zealand. The key general insurance markets in which IAG operates are home and contents, motor vehicle and compulsory third-party, and short-tail commercial. IAG sells insurance under several brands, including NRMA, CGU, SGIO, SGIC, WFI, and Swann in Australia, and NZI, State, AMI, and Lumley in New Zealand.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice. The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Global stocks Shares

Booking has built a leading network of hotel properties and other services, which drives an increasing user base

Business Strategy & Outlook

While COVID-19, inflation, and currency concerns continue to be overhangs on Booking’s near-term travel demand, the company is exhibiting solid financial health. Further, Booking’s global online travel agency leadership position is to increase over the next decade, driven by a healthy position in Asia-Pacific, continued leadership in Europe, and an expanding presence in vacation rentals, restaurant bookings, experiences, flights, and payments, all of which are backed by leading marketing and technology scale. Booking has built a leading network (the source of its narrow moat) of hotel properties and other services, which drives an increasing user base. This network effect is continuing to expand in both developed and emerging markets, as well as vertical markets such as rentals, attractions, flights, and payments (where it looks to focus near-term investment) resulting in a full connected trip offering. In developed markets, replicating Booking’s leading network in Europe is proving costly and time consuming for key competitors, given around 60% of all hotels in the region are small boutique establishments. In emerging markets, the firm has a presence in China with its Trip.com and Meituan-Dianping partnerships, and in its own Booking.com and Agoda.com platforms, which is crucial. This expanding network positions Booking well for the increasing global shift to booking via mobile applications. Booking.com is a top-10 travel iOS application in 157 markets versus 73 for Airbnb, and 28 for Expedia, according to App Annie on Oct. 3, 2022.

Focused entry from Google, Facebook, Alibaba, Amazon, and others could double the current handful of players that have dominant scale, leading to a meaningful impact on profitability. That said, replicating Booking’s network would require significant time and expense, and most of the aforementioned operators are to deploy a metasearch model (don’t control hotel relationships) versus directly competing against Booking’s OTA model (control hotel relationships).

Financial Strengths

Booking’s financial health is extremely sound, and the company has enough liquidity to operate at anemic travel demand levels while still investing in key growth areas into 2024. Debt/adjusted EBITDA was 1.5 times in 2019, but spiked to 13.7 times in 2020, due to incremental debt raised and weaker industry demand caused by the COVID-19 outbreak. That said, the ratio quickly declined to 3.8 times in 2021 and it is to reach 1.8 times in 2022, as the company pays down debt and travel recovers as the pandemic is contained.

Although Booking suspended share repurchases in 2020-21 due to near-term demand uncertainty stemming from COVID-19, it has resumed this shareholder return activity in 2022. The company is to complete its $15 billion authorization announced in May 2019 over the next few years. It is expected Booking to continue to generate strong free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditures) totaling almost $32 billion the next five years (2022-26). In addition to repurchases, Booking is to begin paying out 35% of its income in a form of a dividend starting in 2026, at that point the company will have solidified its position in current growth areas of the industry (vacation rentals, experiences bookings, payment facilitation, flight content, emerging market regions, and mobile applications). Finally, the firm could swallow a large acquisition in the space, should one present itself, given its free cash flow generation, cash, and untapped revolver position.

Bulls Say

  • Outsize online travel bookings growth witnessed the past few years in emerging markets should continue over the next 10 years, given low penetration levels and increased online usage, and Booking is well positioned.
  • Mobile application usage is increasing rapidly, and Booking has a dominant global position, which aids the 50%-plus of room nights that comes from direct traffic.
  • Booking is strengthening its network effect through organic initiatives and in fast-growing markets like experiences, vacation rentals and payments, resulting in a fully connected trip.

Company Description

Booking is the world’s largest online travel agency by revenue, offering booking and payment services for hotel and alternative accommodation rooms, airline tickets, rental cars, restaurant reservations, cruises, experiences, and other vacation packages. The company operates a number of branded travels booking sites, including Booking.com, Agoda, OpenTable, and Rentalcars.com, and has expanded into travel media with the acquisitions of Kayak and Momondo. Transaction fees for online bookings account for the bulk of revenue and profits.

(Source: Morningstar)

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