Category: Global stocks

Global Stock refer to share that are traded on multiple exchanges with different currencies. For example, if a publicly-traded company issues shares in dollars on the New York Stock Exchange and in pounds on the London Stock Exchange, it is issuing global registered shares. Global stock to a portfolio offers diversification and may provide higher returns. Global stock markets may experience higher levels of volatility than other domestic markets with bigger swings to both the upside and downside.

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Digital Realty Continues Deepening its Global Footprint and Transitioning Away From Wholesale Only

power, and connection needs. Along with Equinix, we think this makes Digital Realty one of only two data center providers that can offer this breadth and set itself apart from the pack.

Before its acquisition of Telx in 2015, Digital Realty garnered almost 95% of its total revenue from wholesale data centers and had virtually no interconnection revenue. At the end of 2020, a year in which Digital Realty also acquired Interxion, a firm with almost exclusively co-location and interconnection revenue, we estimate that annualized rent from the largest customers–those taking greater than 1 megawatt of power–made up only about half of total annualized revenue, and interconnection revenue was about 9% of the total.

In Digital Realty’s data centers, tenants can directly connect to their cloud providers or other partners, resulting in reduced latency and superior security. Even when in different Digital Realty locations, customers can bypass the public Internet to connect with other Digital Realty data centers via direct fiber connections within cities or through a software-defined network between cities. 

Steady Performance in Q3 for Digital Realty as It Continues Pursuing New Opportunities 

Digital Realty’s third-quarter results were consistent with recent performance, with a solid level of new bookings and re-leasing spreads that remain sluggish. 

The firm’s 11% year-over-year revenue growth was significantly boosted by higher utilities revenue, which simply reflects higher energy costs that Digital passes on to its customers.Rental revenue, which excludes pass-through revenue, was up 6%. Renewal spreads remain under pressure as the firm continues working off below-market contracts with its larger deployments, but this quarter’s negative 6% cash re-leasing spread was misleading, as it was the result of a 30- megawatt renewal combined with a very large new lease.

New bookings totaled $113 million in annualized revenue, with space and power bookings just over $100 million for the third straight quarter, and interconnection bookings in the $12 million-$13 million range for the fifth straight quarter-every quarter since Digital acquired Interxion. While this level of bookings is solid, it is believed that the moves the firm is making will lead them to pick up in the future. Key moves Digital made during or after the third quarter include entries into both India and Nigeria, both through joint ventures. The firm also made an investment in AtlasEdge data centers in Europe to propel its edge ambitions.

Bulls Say 

  • Digital Realty’s shift toward connection and colocation exposes it to the most attractive parts of the data center business and the growth tailwinds of cloud providers and data connectivity. 
  • Digital Realty’s global offering and high exposure to cloud providers gives it an advantage over competitors that operate in more narrow geographies or can only offer retail colocation space.
  • Internet of Things, artificial intelligence, and other innovations that increase the public’s demand for data and connectivity require more hardware and connections in data centers.

Company Profile

Digital Realty owns and operates nearly 300 data centers worldwide. It has more than 35 million rentable square feet across five continents. Digital’s offerings range from retail colocation, where an enterprise may rent a single cabinet and rely on Digital to provide all the accommodations, to “cold shells,” where hyperscale cloud service providers can simply rent much, or all, of a barren, power-connected building. In recent years, Digital Realty has de-emphasized cold shells and now primarily provides higher-level service to tenants, which outsource their related IT needs to Digital. Digital Realty has also moved more into the co-location business, increasingly serving enterprises and facilitating network connections. Digital Realty operates as a real estate investment trust.

 (Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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ANN delivered solid FY21 performance with strong financial position

Investment Thesis

  • ANN is a reputable company with international production capability.
  • The 5-yr forward earnings estimates are on the conservative side and capture the moderating growth likely to be seen from the elevated levels experienced in FY21.
  • ANN’s share price trades at a >10% discount in comparison to DCF valuation
  • FX translation should be positive for the Company. 
  •  Raw material cost pressures can be shared with customers and suppliers.
  • ANN has a healthy financial sheet, allowing it to repay cash to shareholders or borrow money to fund acquisitions.

Key Risk

  • Recall of a product.
  • Trade wars escalate, leading to higher tariffs.
  • Increase in competitive pressures.
  • Adverse movements in AUD/USD.
  • The expansion of emerging and developed markets both disappoints.
  • Any worse or better prices for raw materials.

Key highlights of FY21

  •  Sales of $2,027m, up by 25.6% (+22.5% in CC) with Healthcare organic growth of 34.8% and Industrial organic growth of 7.1%. 
  •  EBIT of $338m, up by 56.0% (+51.4% in CC) with margin improving 330bps to 16.7%, driven by higher production volumes, pricing/mix benefit and SG&A operating leverage, partly offset by elevated labour and freight costs combined with increase in inventory provision.
  •  Profit Attributable to ANN shareholders of $246.7m, up by 57.5% (+48.5% in CC) and EPS of 192.2cps (EPS would have been 193.9cps, without Cloud Computing accounting policy change), up by 59.9% (+50.8% I CC). 
  •  Operating Cash Flow of $49.2m (down by 74.3% over pcp) representing cash conversion of 60.9%, negatively impacted due to greater investment in working capital to support top line growth along with pricing impact as well as higher capex to increase capacity in a number of higher demanded products.
  • ROCE saw significant improvement (up +590bps to 19.8% pre-tax and up +550bps to 16.8% post tax), predominantly due to strong EBIT growth.
  • Final dividend of US43.6cps (up +54.3% over pcp), taking full year dividend to US76.8cps, up +53.6% over pcp and representing payout of 40%.
  • Strong financial position with ample liquidity of $464m (cash and committed undrawn bank facilities), conservative gearing profile (net debt/EBITDA of 0.7x vs 0.6x in pcp), well managed debt profile with net debt position below target leverage and no significant upcoming maturities in the next 12-months and investment grade rating of Baa2 by Moody’s.

FY 22 Outlook

Assuming net interest expense in the range of $20-21m, effective tax rate in the range of 22-23% and increased software investments where a portion will now be expensed rather than capitalised and amortised pursuant to the new cloud computing accounting policy resulting in 5-6cps adverse EPS impact, management anticipates EPS to be in the range of 175-195cps. Management further noted on the analyst conference call, “we expect continued demand for Mechanical, Surgical, Life Sciences and internally manufactured Single Use gloves, however, lower demand is expected in areas which benefited most during the onset of COVID-19 .

Company Profile

Ansell Ltd (ANN) operates two global business units: (1) Ansell’s Industrial segment manufactures and markets multi-use protection solutions specific for hand, foot, and body protection, for a wide-range of industries such as automotive, chemical, metal fabrication; (2) Ansell’s Healthcare segment (Medical + Single Use) offers a full range of surgical and examination gloves covering all applications, as well as healthcare safety devices and active infection protection products. The segment also manufactures and markets single use hand protection. Ansell recently sold its  Sexual Wellness Global Business Unit group.

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Global stocks

HT&E delivered strong results led by higher consumer confidence

Investment Thesis:

  • Improvement in radio advertising markets over the medium term and solid demand for radio as a medium for advertising agencies is expected
  • Further cost outs, specifically significantly lower corporate overheads costs
  • ATO (Australian Taxation Office) and HT&E settlement in due course is expected
  • Potential corporate activity due to amendment made in media ownership rules
  • Increase in the valuation of Soprano (25% interest)  
  • Ongoing capital management initiatives
  • Strong balance sheet

Key Risks:

  • Decline in advertising dollars (radio and outdoor), especially if the retail sector in Australia comes under pressure 
  • Radio experiences structural disruption
  • Increased competition from major player(s) on tenders
  • Execution risk which might arise due to international expansion
  • ATO tax liability materializes at a level above market expectation
  • Hong Kong could become a drag on group performance (Coronavirus or protests escalate)
  • New and extensive Covid-19 related lockdowns are reintroduced nationwide

Key highlights:

  • Core group revenue was up by 18.2% to $109.9m (a like basis revenue was up by 21%) 
  • Underlying EBITDA of $30.4m was up by 55.9%, and NPAT of $16.3m was up by 352.8%
  • The Board reinstated the dividend and declared a fully franked interim dividend of 3.5cps
  • Soprano (HT&E holds a 25% interest) which is to be sold to Link Mobility Group Holdings, a global CPaaS (Communications Platform as a Service) provider listed on the Oslo stock exchange, for a total consideration of approx. $560m. This values HT1’s share at approx. $139m.
  • 1H21 Radio revenue was up by 19% YoY, which was in-line with the market at 20.2%. This was a solid performance given ARN has reported significant market share gains over the past two financial years.
  • Cody Outdoor – HK. The segment saw a significant improvement in earnings (EBIT of $0.7m vs a loss of $2.7m in the pcp), driven by fewer lockdowns and a well progressed vaccination program, which has driven renewed advertiser confidence, with revenue up 28% on a local currency basis.
  • The commercial benefits will be fetched by building up the audience for the digital platform.

Company Description: 

HT&E Limited (HT1) is a media and entertainment company with operations in Australia, New Zealand and Hong Kong. The Company operates the following key segments: (1) Australian Radio Network (ARN) – metropolitan radio networks including KIIS Network, The Edge96.One and Mix106.3 Canberra; (2) Hong Kong Outdoor (Cody) – Billboard, transit and other outdoor advertising in Hong Kong, with over 300 outdoor advertising panels and in-bus multimedia advertising across 1,200 buses; and (3) Digital Investments – digital assets including iHeartRadio, Emotive and Conversant Media.

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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SUN reported strong FY21 result with plans to deliver a growing business through strategic initiatives

Investment Thesis

  • Management believes it will be difficult to achieve a ROE target of 10% in FY21 due to factors affecting both the underlying ITR and cost to income targets, as well as the historically low interest rate environment, but it hopes to maintain an ordinary dividend payout ratio of 60-80 percent of cash earnings.
  • SUN has a 2-year forward PE-multiple of 15.0x and a fully franked yield of 5.3 percent, which is excellent.
  • A $250 million share repurchase programme should help the company’s stock price.
  • SUN’s Bank has been granted advanced accreditation by APRA, resulting in capital relief.
  •  Banking and general insurance margins outperformed expectations (GI).
  •  The Royal Commission’s recommendations have resulted in positive changes in the sector.
  •  Maintaining net interest margins while maintaining good credit quality in its Bank and Wealth sector.
  •  Management has the ability to continuously maintain an underlying insurance trading ratio of 12 percent and a sustainable ROE of at least 10% in the future.

Key Risk

  • Competition in insurance lines is greater than predicted, affecting pricing, unit growth, and risk management.
  • Continuing high-intensity natural disasters, like the NSW bushfires, which will deplete reinsurance and have an impact on SUN’s profitability.
  • Key milestones for FY21, such as the rollout of the Company’s technology and digital platforms, have not been met.
  • Investment returns are lower than projected.
  • Net interest margins are lower or provisions are larger than projected.
  • An increase in the number of claims.

Key highlights of FY21

  • SUN reported strong FY21 results reflecting cash earnings of $1,064m, up by 42.1% and Group NPAT, up by 13.1% to $1,033m.
  • By segments: Relative to the pcp: (1) Insurance (Australia): PAT of $547m, was up by 42.4%.(2) Banking & Wealth: PAT of $419m was up +69% on net interest margins of 2.07%, up 13bps. (3)NZ: PAT of $200m declined by 18.4% driven lower by General Insurance PAT of NZ$177m, declining 19.2% (mainly due to higher natural hazard costs and lower investment income).
  • SUN reported better top-line growth, with Gross Written Premium (GWP) growth of 5.5 percent in Australia and 9.2 percent in New Zealand, respectively (best insurance top-line performance in almost a decade).
  • Suncorp Bank  home lending grew by 0.8 percent in the second half of 2021, and has grown home loans for six months in a row as of July 31, 2021.
  • The Board declared a fully franked final ordinary dividend of 40cps which brings FY21 total fully franked ordinary dividends to 66cps (on a 79.3% payout ratio, and up from 36cps in FY20, on 60.7% payout ratio), a fully franked 8 cent special dividend, and an on-market share buyback of up to $250m (which should support its share price).

Guidance commentary: (1) FY23 Plan: “The plan intends to deliver a growing business with a sustainable return on equity above the cost of equity throughout the cycle.” The Group is investing in 12 major projects to achieve this, with the program’s advantages beginning to be realised in 2H22. (2) Natural hazard and reinsurance: SUN has increased its natural hazard allowance for FY22 to $980 million. (3) Releases of prior-year reserves: SUN continues to allow for prior-year reserve releases if inflation continues low, releases should be at least 1.5 percent of Group NEP. (4) Operating expenses: The Group’s operating expense base is estimated to be $2.8 billion, including project spending and restructuring charges in fiscal year 22. (6) Capital: SUN remains committed to a 60-80% dividend distribution ratio”.

Company Profile

Suncorp Group Ltd (SUN) provides general insurance, banking, life insurance, and superannuation products and related services to the retail, corporate, and commercial sectors in Australia and New Zealand. The company operates through Personal Insurance, Commercial Insurance, General Insurance New Zealand, and Banking segments.

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Bapcor delivered record results driven by increased revenue and earnings across all business segments

Investment Thesis:

  • Trading below analysts’ valuation 
  • Fundamentals for the vehicle aftermarket continue to remain strong (with increase in second hand vehicle sales; travellers seeking social distancing and hence moving away from public transport; with Covid lockdown measures in forced, more people are spending their holidays domestically utilising their vehicles)
  • Significant opportunities within BAP to drive growth (expanding network; increase market share by leveraging BAP’s Victorian DC; enhance supply chain efficiencies; driven own brand growth). 
  • Strong earnings growth profile
  • Further opportunity to grow gross profit margins from better buying terms with tier one and two suppliers
  • Significant distribution network across Australia to leverage from
  • Ongoing bolt on acquisitions and associated synergies
  • Growing BAP’s own brand strategy, which should be positive for margins
  • BAP is on track to reach their 5-year targets to supplement market leading brands with BAP’s own brand products
  • Weak macro story of leveraged Australian consumer and lower growth environment persisting
  • Thailand represents a meaningful opportunity 

Key Risks:

  • Rising competitive pressures 
  • Value destructive acquisition
  • Rising cost pressures eroding margins (e.g. more brand or marketing investment required due to competitive pressures)
  • Given the high trading multiples the stock trades at, a disappointing earnings update could see the stock price significantly re-rate lower
  • Integration (and therefore synergies) of recent acquisitions underperform market expectations 
  • Execution risk around Thailand

Key highlights:

  • BAP delivered a record result with FY21 revenue up +20.4% over the pcp, driven by increased revenue and earnings across all business segments
  • Pro forma EBITDA and NPAT, were up +28.8%, and +46.5% respectively, over the pcp.
  • The revenue and EBITDA generated by segments are:
  1. Trade: Delivered record revenue of $649m, up by 15.5% and EBITDA of $115m, which is up by 19%
  2. New Zealand: Revenue of $170m, was up 8.8% and EBITDA of $33m, was up 21.2%
  3. Specialist Wholesale (‘SWG’): Revenue of $660m, and EBITDA of $90m was up +26.8% and +42.2% respectively
  4. Retail: Revenue of $369m increased +26.1% and EBITDA of $65m increased +20.1%
  5. Asia: On BAP’s 25% investment in Tye Soon and Thailand, management highlighted revenue up by 26% and profit after tax of $2.2m

Company Description: 

Bapcor Ltd (BAP) is Australasia’s leading provider of aftermarket parts, accessories and services. The core businesses of BAP are: (1) Trade – Burson Auto Parts is a trade focused parts professional supplying workshops with all their parts and accessories. (2) Retail – Autobarn is the premium retailer of auto accessories and Opposite Lock specializes in 4WD accessory specialists. (3) Independents – supporting the independent parts stores via the group’s extensive supply chain capabilities and through brand support. (4) Specialist Wholesaler – the number 1 or 2 industry category specialists in parts supply programs. (5) Services – experts at car servicing through Midas and ABS.

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Incitec Pivot’s Fiscal Second Half Enjoys Surge in Fertiliser Price AUD 3.00 FVE Unchanged

Business Strategy and Outlook

Incitec Pivot aims to expand its business around its strong global market share in explosives. This provides an increasingly stable earnings stream relative to volatile earnings from its fertiliser business. Competitive advantages include a duopoly Australian explosives business and global explosives operations. Incitec Pivot is also a dominant player in the Australian domestic fertilizer market and enjoys a degree of domestic fertiliser pricing power from its dominant market share in eastern states, but it is too small to influence global prices.

Explosives earnings are leveraged to mining volumes as much as price and should benefit from long-term global growth in demand for minerals and metals. Additionally, mining strip ratios are expected to increase over time, with more explosives required to mine the same amount of ore. Incitec Pivot is consequently focused on ensuring all new projects meet strict financial criteria. There will likely be an oversupply of ammonium nitrate in Western Australia to 2020 and in Eastern Australia to 2021. 

Financial Strength

IncitecPivot raised AUD 645 million in new equity at AUD 2.00 per share in the second half of fiscal 2020. In conjunction with positive free cash flows, net debt fell to AUD 1.3 billion at end September, down 45% from AUD 1.9 billion at end March 2020. As at end March 2021, net debt worsened slightly to AUD 1.48 billion, for comparatively modest leverage ND/(ND+E) of 22%, but somewhat elevated net debt/EBITDA just over 2.0. It is pleasing therefore that management has expressed an investment bias to capital-light and faster cash returning projects aligned to the strategy.The equity capital raised in fiscal 2020 increased the company’s liquidity and supports a continued investment-grade credit rating.

Our fiscal 2021 EPS forecast is little changed at AUD 0.10 with full-year results to be released on Nov. 15. The global explosives provider deliberately brought down its Waggaman ammonia plant in late August 2021 in anticipation of Hurricane Ida, with an NPAT impact of USD 21 million. Post-hurricane inspections did not identify any material damage to the Waggaman plant. Incitec Pivot ended March 2021 with net debt of AUD 1.48 billion, for comparatively modest leverage ND/(ND+E) of 22%, but somewhat elevated net debt/EBITDA just over 2.0.

Bulls Say’s

  • Investors enjoy bumper dividends at peak cycle times.
  • Continued growth of the explosives business will reduce earnings volatility.
  • Over the longer term, explosives earnings are favourably leveraged to mining volumes rather than prices, and mine strip ratios are expected to increase over time.

Company Profile 

Incitec Pivot is a leading global explosives company with operations in Australia, Asia, and the Americas. We estimate its share of the global commercial explosives market at about 15%. Explosives contributes 80% of EBIT. Incitec Pivot is also a major Australian fertiliser producer and distributor and is the only Australian manufacturer of ammonium phosphates and urea. Ammonium phosphates are sold in the domestic market and exported.

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Invocare solid 1H21 results reflect profits of $44m, a turnaround from -$18m loss

Investment Thesis 

We rate IVC as a Neutral for the following reasons:

  • Trades in-line with our blended valuation (DCF / PE-multiple). IVC is currently trading on a 12-mth blended forward PE-multiple of 36.4x and 1.7% dividend yield. 
  • IVC continues to be impacted by Covid-19 and associated lockdown/containment measures.
  • Potential for increased death rates.
  • Continued cost control from strategic review and operational efficiency.
  • IVC benefits from demographics and long-term population growth.
  • IVC holds leading market positions in its core markets.
  • IVC has strong cash flow conversion and generation.
  • High barrier to entry with quality assets and business model that is difficult to replicate.  
  • Increased competition from budget operators in Australia.

Key Risks

We see the following key risks to our investment thesis:

  • Continued reduction in death rate compared to expectations/forecasted trend.
  • Increased competition especially around pricing.
  • Protect and Grow 2020 does not yield incremental returns as anticipated.
  • Underperformance of funds under management.

1H21 Results Highlights 

Relative to the pcp: 

  • Statutory Revenue of $260.9m, up +13%. 
  • Operating Revenue of $257.3m, up +13%. 
  • Operating EBITDA of $63.6m, was up +31% with IVC returning to positive operating leverage. 
  • Operating EBIT of $39.4m, was up +46%. 
  • Reported Profit After Tax of $44m, compared to a Reported Loss After Tax of $18m in the pcp. Operating EPS of 14.4cps, was up +57%. 
  • IVC retained a strong balance sheet with cash of $131.2m and net debt of $124.7m. Capital management metrics improved with leverage ratio of 1.1x, strong cashflow conversion of 102% and ROCE of 10.4%, up 1.8 points on FY20.
  • The Board declared an interim fully franked dividend of 9.5cps, up 73% over the pcp and equates to a dividend payout ratio of 66%, within IVC’s preferred dividend payout range.

Company Description  

InvoCare Ltd (IVC) is the largest private funeral, cemetery and cremation operator in the Asia Pacific Region. It has leading market positions in countries like Australia, New Zealand, and Singapore.

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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After a 54 percent dividend increase, Ansell’s stock is in the spotlight.

Investment Thesis

  • Based on our valuation, ANN’s share price trades at a >10% discount to our DCF valuation.  
  • ANN is a quality business with global manufacturing capabilities.
  • We believe our 5-yr forward earnings estimates are on the conservative side and capture the moderating growth likely to be seen from the elevated levels experienced in FY21. 
  • FX translation should be positive for the Company.
  • Raw material cost pressures can be shared with customers and suppliers.
  • ANN has a strong balance sheet position with flexibility to return cash to shareholders or borrowing capacity for acquisitions

Key Risks

We see the following key risks to our investment thesis:

  • Product recall.
  • Trade wars escalate, leading to higher tariffs. 
  • Increase in competitive pressures.
  • Adverse movements in AUD/USD.
  • Emerging or developed market growth disappoints. 
  • Any worst or better prices for raw materials.

FY21 key trading metrics 

  • Sales of $2,027m, up +25.6% (+22.5% in CC) with Healthcare organic growth of +34.8% and Industrial organic growth of +7.1%. 
  • EBIT of $338m, up +56.0% (+51.4% in CC) with margin improving +330bps to 16.7%, driven by higher production volumes, pricing/mix benefit and SG&A operating leverage, partly offset by elevated labour and freight costs combined with increase in inventory provisions 
  • Profit Attributable to ANN shareholders of $246.7m, up +57.5% (+48.5% in CC) and EPS of 192.2cps (EPS would have been 193.9cps, without Cloud Computing accounting policy change), up +59.9% (+50.8% I CC). 
  • Operating Cash Flow of $49.2m (down -74.3% over pcp) representing cash conversion of 60.9%, negatively impacted due to greater investment in working capital to support top line growth along with pricing impact as well as higher capex to increase capacity in a number of higher demanded products. Capex increased +36.5% over pcp to $82.7m, however, remained below management’s $95-105m guidance due to temporary delays to shipments and installation as a result of COVID-19, with management expecting FY22 capex spend to be $80-100m. 
  • ROCE saw significant improvement (up +590bps to 19.8% pre-tax and up +550bps to 16.8% post tax), predominantly due to strong EBIT growth.

Company Description  

Ansell Ltd (ANN) operates two global business units: (1) Ansell’s Industrial segment manufactures and markets multi-use protection solutions specific for hand, foot, and body protection, for a wide-range of industries such as automotive, chemical, metal fabrication; (2) Ansell’s Healthcare segment (Medical + Single Use) offers a full range of surgical and examination gloves covering all applications, as well as healthcare safety devices and active infection protection products. The segment also manufactures and markets single use hand protection. Ansell recently sold its sold its Sexual Wellness Global Business Unit group.

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Cisco’s Software and Subscription Push Providing Investors with Greater Insight and Predictability

its strategic focus of increasing recurring revenue via selling software and services to supplement its hardware products. Software and services were more than half of fiscal 2020 revenue, up from 43% in fiscal 2017. In our view, Cisco embracing software from hardware disaggregation, and even selling networking chips, can help keep demand for its solutions high although some customers rely on cloud-based resources or generic hardware.

The company is the dominant supplier of switches, routers, cybersecurity, and complementary networking products. Cisco’s products are mission critical for network performance, stability, and security. Cisco is proliferating software, analytics, wireless, and security offerings to satisfy nascent trends, and we see Cisco as the only one-stop-shop networking vendor. Despite Cisco’s commanding position in switches and routers, IT professionals are increasingly shifting computer workloads to the cloud, in turn buying less data center hardware. Alongside changing its product offerings, Cisco is moving product sales toward subscription-based offerings, which is the preferred method of consumption for cloud-based resources.

Financial Strength

Cisco a financially healthy Company. With a fiscal 2021 debt/capital ratio of 22%, abundant free cash flow generation, and expected on-time debt payments. The company could safely lever back up to fund development projects, acquisitions, and shareholder returns if needed. Cisco has continually exceeded its commitment to return at least 50% of free cash flow, calculated as cash from operating activities minus capital expenditures, to shareholders. Cisco initiated its share repurchase program in 2001, has increased the authorization over time, had about $8 billion remaining at the end of fiscal 2021, with no termination date. 

Cisco has recurrently raised its dividend year over year, and modest annual increases. Even after shareholder returns and debt repayments, the company remains financially flexible with plenty of cash to support acquisitions and its large marketing and R&D expenditures. Growing recurring revenue will provide a steadier income stream, and we expect strong operational and free cash flow generation to continue in the future. Our view is that Cisco will manage its growing war chest with future cash deployments into strategic developments and acquisitions.

Bulls Say’s

  • Cisco’s one-stop-shop ecosystem, from switches to data analytics, should remain valued as more networking customers migrate to hybrid clouds.
  • Despite the rise of public clouds, Cisco should continue to grow its customer base via hybrid cloud and software offerings.
  • The expected rapid proliferation of devices to hit networks should drive customer demand for Cisco products. We foresee Cisco’s hardware as needed for access points, routing, and switching while software is crucial for analytics, security, and intent-based networking.

Company Profile 

Cisco Systems, Inc. is the world’s largest hardware and software supplier within the networking solutions sector. The infrastructure platforms group includes hardware and software products for switching, routing, data center, and wireless applications. Its applications portfolio contains collaboration, analytics, and Internet of Things products. The security segment contains Cisco’s firewall and software-defined security products. Services are Cisco’s technical support and advanced services offerings. The company’s wide array of hardware is complemented with solutions for software-defined networking, analytics, and intent-based networking. In collaboration with Cisco’s initiative on growing software and services, its revenue model is focused on increasing subscriptions and recurring sales.

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Sweetened Proposal for Sydney Airport Looks Like Enough; FVE Up to AUD 8.25, Shares Fairly Priced

Long distances between major cities in Australasia means flying is a preferred mode of travel. Despite a rival airport scheduled to open in 2026, we expect Sydney Airport to remain the favoured terminal for business and long-haul leisure travellers for the next decade. This is due to existing infrastructure which is costly to replicate, and proximity to the CBD, affluent suburbs and tourist areas, and connections to roads and public transport. 

Revenue is about evenly sourced from aeronautical and other operations. Aeronautical fees are mostly on a per-passenger basis, with base charges negotiated with airlines every five years. Retail is the largest non-aeronautical contributor, accounting for about 23% of pre-COVID-19 revenue. Duty-free and luxury shopping has threats, given the ability for e-commerce sites to offer lower prices than duty-free, and ESG risks given the reliance on tobacco and alcohol sales. However, in the long run, risks materialising in any particular sub-category should be offset by passenger growth boosting defensive categories such as food, car-rental, parking, souvenirs, and holiday items

Regulators have no power to intervene other than to recommend more regulation. Rather than pushing for more onerous regulation, government and regulators could foster more competition via the new Western Sydney Airport, though we believe this will take more than a decade. 

Catering to the growing middle-class in neighbouring countries remains a growth opportunity. Population and passenger growth should aid Sydney Airport as it can increasingly allocate slots away from domestic and toward international flights. International flights account for about 40% of passengers, but about 70% of passenger revenue.

Sweetened Proposal for Sydney Airport Looks Like Enough; FVE Up to AUD 8.25, Shares Fairly Priced:

Sydney Aviation Alliance has sweetened its pitch for Sydney Airport, now proposing a deal at AUD 8.75 per share. While the new price is only 3.5% higher than the previously rejected AUD 8.45, this time Sydney Airport granted due diligence and said it would support a binding offer at that price. A conclusion is unlikely until 2022 given it will require 4 weeks of due diligence, a binding bid from the consortium, a shareholder vote, and regulatory investigations. A lot could happen between now and then; however, the most likely outcome is a takeover proceeding at the proposed price.

We raise our fair value estimate to AUD 8.25, ascribing a 75% probability a deal proceeds at AUD 8.75, and a 25% weighting to our underlying valuation in the absence of a bid, which is unchanged at AUD 6.70. 

We understand the need for due diligence given the hefty price tag, however, we think it unlikely the due diligence process will uncover anything to disrupt the offer. Sydney Airport is well run, and its assets and books have been scrutinised closely by many parties, and its now public listing. It also has a huge debt load that attracted close scrutiny from creditors in 2020, as well as air safety and security bodies scrutinising its physical assets.

A more likely disruptor is economic or coronavirus news. We maintain our view that regulatory authorities are unlikely to throw up insurmountable concerns about aviation safety, national security, foreign investment, or competition. Competition is the most likely hurdle, if any, given consortium member stakes in other airports.

Bulls Say

  • Sydney Airport’s convenience to the business district and coastal suburbs of Australia’s largest city makes it near impossible to replicate. Rising incomes in nearby nations, and Australia’s growing population bodes well for long-term passenger numbers.
  • A light regulatory regime is unlikely to become significantly more onerous.
  • Sydney Airport has spare landing slots, plus the ability to reallocate slots away from domestic and toward more lucrative long-haul international flights, as passenger traffic grows.

Financial Strength

Financial Strength Sydney Airport’s financial health is fair, with relatively defensive income offset by high debt.Net debt/EBITDA was a high 14 times in fiscal 2021, up from 7.2 in 2019.Management acknowledged the high debt and took appropriate actions to reduce leverage, including cancelling distributions in 2020, delaying capital expenditure, securing additional bank facilities, and raising AUD 2 billion in equity in the September quarter of 2020. We expect calendar 2021 to be the low point for EBITDA, with 2022 forecast to be significantly higher due to fewer and less strict lockdowns. 

Company Profile

Sydney Airport has a lease to operate the facility until 2097. As Australia’s busiest airport, it connects close to 100 international and domestic destinations, and handled more than 40 million passenger movements annually until COVID-19 border restrictions in 2020. Regulation is light, with airports setting charges and terms with airlines, and the regulator monitoring the aeronautical and car park operations to ensure reasonable pricing and service. Retail and property operations are free from regulatory oversight, though political and commercial pressure limits Sydney Airport from overly flexing its pricing muscle, particularly as the government owns the rival Western Sydney Airport, set to open in 2026.

(Source:Morningstar)

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Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.