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Dr. Reddy’s Continues to Weather Generic Drug Erosion in Core Markets

Business Strategy and Outlook

Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories is a global pharmaceutical company based in Hyderabad, India. It manufactures and markets generic drugs and active pharmaceutical ingredients in markets across the world, but predominantly in the United States, India, and Eastern Europe. Indian pharmaceutical manufacturers have seen success over the past decade in penetrating the U.S. market, where regulatory hurdles are lower than in Western Europe. With competition on price in a commodified space, the entry of low-cost manufacturers has facilitated a deflationary price environment for generic drugs since 2015, putting substantial pressure on the margins of established manufacturers. Conversely, in India and other countries with lower generics adoption, so-called “branded” generics have seen notable success. 

Generic manufacturers have taken different approaches to combat margin pressure over the past few years. While some manufacturers have addressed competition by rationalizing their U.S. portfolio and discontinuing low-margin or unprofitable drugs, Dr. Reddy’s has remained focused on expanding its U.S. market share. While its U.S. portfolio has experienced marginally higher deflation compared with peers, its pipeline is increasingly leaning toward injectables and other complex generics that command higher margins and exhibit relatively more price stability.

Financial Strength

Overall, Dr. Reddy’s reported a relatively uneventful third quarter, with higher revenue across the board largely due to new product launches and market share gain. The company’s revenue grew 8% to INR 53.2 billion ($715 million) on a year-over-year basis driven by new product launches and higher sales volumes in the global generics business. North America generics, which represents the largest share of company revenue (35%), was positively affected during the quarter by launches for four new products but negatively impacted by erosion within in generic drug portfolio. On a sequential basis, revenue fell 8%, largely due to price erosion in generics and reduction of volume of COVID-19-related products.

As of the fourth calendar quarter of 2021, Dr. Reddy’s holds gross debt of INR 28 billion ($370 million), which is more than offset by the cash on the company’s balance sheet. With very low leverage, the company faces little liquidity risk. This compares favorably with other global generic manufacturers like Teva and Viatris, which are saddled with high leverage as a result of an aggressive acquisition strategy over the past decade. The company pays an annual dividend of $0.34 per share, which translates to a dividend yield of under 1%.

Bulls Say’s 

  • Dr. Reddy’s low-labor-cost operations based in India and vertical integration likely provide a low-cost edge. 
  • In the U.S. and Russia, Dr. Reddy’s has grown quickly in OTC generics, which is an attractive segment of the market with slightly higher barriers to entry than conventional retail pharmacy drugs. 
  • Dr. Reddy’s strong branded generic presence in emerging markets provides significant growth opportunities with less price competition than typically seen in developed markets.

Company Profile 

Headquartered in India, Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories develops and manufactures generic pharmaceutical products sold across the world. The company specializes in low-cost, easy-to-produce small-molecule generic drugs and active pharmaceutical ingredients. Its drug portfolio in recent years has included biosimilar drug launches in select emerging markets and has shifted toward injectables and more complex generic products. Geographically, the company’s sales are well dispersed across North America, India, and other emerging markets. 

(Source: Morningstar)

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Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Demand for Construction Equipment Continue to Flourish, Benefiting Caterpillar

Business Strategy and Outlook

Caterpillar will continue to be the leader in the global heavy machinery market, providing customers an extensive product portfolio consisting of construction, mining, energy, and transportation products. For nearly a century, the company has been a trusted manufacturer of mission-critical heavy machinery, which has led to its position as one of the world’s most valuable brands. Caterpillar’s strong brand is underpinned by its high-quality, extremely reliable, and efficient products. Customers also value Caterpillar’s ability to lower the total cost of ownership. 

The company’s strategy focuses on employing operational excellence in its production process, expanding customer offerings, and providing value-added services to customers. Since 2014, Caterpillar has taken steps to reduce structural costs and its fixed asset base by implementing cost management initiatives and by either closing or consolidating numerous facilities, reducing its manufacturing floorspace considerably. Over the past decade, the company has continually released new products and upgraded existing product models to drive greater machine efficiency. Customers also rely on the services that Caterpillar provides, for example, machine maintenance and access to its proprietary aftermarket parts. Furthermore, its digital applications help customers interact with dealers, manage their fleet, and track machine performance to determine when maintenance is needed. 

Caterpillar has exposure to end markets that have attractive tailwinds. On the construction side, the company will benefit from legislation aimed at increasing infrastructure spending in the U.S. The country’s road conditions are in poor condition, which has led to pent-up road construction demand. In energy, the improvement in the price of oil since COVID-19 lows will encourage exploration and production companies to increase oil and gas capital expenditures, leading to increased sales of Caterpillar’s oil-well-servicing products. That said, it is believed mining markets will have limited upside, as fixed-asset investment growth in China starts to slow, likely capping commodity price upside.

Financial Strength

Caterpillar maintains a sound balance sheet. On the industrial side, the net debt/adjusted EBTIDA ratio was relatively low at the end of 2021, coming in at 0.2. Total outstanding debt, including both short- and long-term debt was $9.8 billion. Caterpillar’s strong balance sheet gives management the financial flexibility to run a balanced capital allocation strategy going forward that mostly favours organic growth and returns cash to shareholders. In terms of liquidity, the company can meet its near-term debt obligations given its strong cash balance. The company’s cash position as of year-end 2021 stood at $8.4 billion on its industrial balance sheet. It is comforting to find comfort in Caterpillar’s ability to tap into available lines of credit to meet any short-term needs. Caterpillar has access to $10.9 billion in credit facilities for the consolidated business (including financial services), of which, $2.9 billion is available to the industrial business. Caterpillar’s focus on operational excellence in its industrial operations and improved cost base has put the company on better footing when it comes to free cash flow generation throughout the economic cycle. The company can generate $6 billion in free cash flow in our midcycle year, supporting its ability to return nearly all its free cash flow to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. The captive finance arm holds considerably more debt than the industrial business, but this is reasonable, given its status as a lender to both customers and dealers. Total debt stood at $28 billion in 2021, along with $27 billion in finance receivables and $826 million in cash. In our view, Caterpillar enjoys a strong financial position supported by a clean balance sheet and strong free cash flow prospects.

Bulls Say’s

  • Increased infrastructure spending in the U.S. and emerging markets will lead to more construction equipment purchases, substantially boosting Caterpillar’s sales growth. 
  • Higher fixed-asset investment growth in China strengthens support for increased investment in mining capital expenditures, benefiting Caterpillar. 
  • A continued recovery from the temporary demand shock in oil prices will lead to increased oil and gas capital expenditures, leading to more engine, transmission, and pump sales for Caterpillar.

Company Profile 

Caterpillar is an iconic manufacturer of heavy equipment, power solutions, and locomotives. It is currently the world’s largest manufacturer of heavy equipment with over 13% market share in 2021. The company is divided into four reportable segments: construction industries, resource industries, energy and transportation, and Caterpillar Financial Services. Its products are available through a dealer network that covers the globe with over 2,000 branches maintained by 168 dealers. Caterpillar Financial Services provides retail financing for machinery and engines to its customers, in addition to wholesale financing for dealers, which increases the likelihood of Caterpillar product sales.

(Source: Morningstar)

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Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Improved near-term outlook for Eastman; shares slightly undervalued

Business Strategy and Outlook:

Through acquisition and internal development, Eastman owns a solid portfolio of specialty chemicals. Eastman’s specialty chemicals include plastics and components used in safety glass, window tinting, and specialty plastics, which offer a solid growth profile. To increase its specialty portfolio, the firm invests roughly 4% of sales from its additives and functional products and advanced materials segments into research and development, which is in line with its specialty chemical peers. Eastman is well positioned to meet growing demand for auto window interlayers, including heads-up displays, and specialty plastics.

Eastman also holds a solid position in acetate tow, which is primarily used to make cigarette filters. The acetate tow industry has experienced falling prices due to overcapacity in China over the past several years. However, a handful of players dominates the industry, a factor that led to disciplined capacity shutdowns by all of the major companies during the industry downturn. To offset some of the decline, Eastman has been investing in capacity for other uses for its fibers, including fabrics and apparel.

Financial Strength:

Eastman is in good financial health. As of Dec. 31, 2021, Eastman carried around $4.7 billion in net debt on its balance sheet. Management reported net debt/adjusted EBITDA was a little less than 2.2 times. With strong free cash flow generation and the sale of its adhesive resins portfolio for $1 billion in cash in 2022, it is assumed that Eastman will have no trouble meeting its financial obligations, including dividends. Assuming no major acquisitions are made, the company will be able to maintain leverage ratios within management’s long-term target of 2.0-2.5 times over a number of years. However, the cyclical nature of the chemicals business could cause coverage ratios to fluctuate from year to year.

Bulls Say:

  • Eastman is well positioned to meet evolving chemical demands in auto window interlayers and tires through its best-in-class patented products. 
  • Eastman’s investments in plants that use sustainable based feedstocks, including recycled chemicals and wood pulp, should benefit from growing demand for specialty plastics made from these feedstocks. 
  • As Eastman continues to develop new patented products, it should expand its specialty chemicals business, which generates higher margins and commands some degree of pricing power.

Company Profile:

Established in 1920 to produce chemicals for Eastman Kodak, Eastman Chemical has grown into a global specialty chemical with manufacturing sites around the world. The company generates the majority of its sales outside of the United States, with a strong presence in Asian markets. During the past several years, Eastman has sold noncore businesses, choosing to focus on higher-margin specialty product offerings.

(Source: Morningstar)

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Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Celanese shares fall as company reports strong 2021 results; shares fairly valued

Business Strategy and Outlook:

Celanese is the world’s largest producer of acetic acid and its chemical derivatives, including vinyl acetate monomer and emulsions. These products are used in the company’s specialized end products and also sold externally. Celanese produces the chemical in its core acetyl chain segment (roughly 70% of 2021 EBITDA), which primarily serves the automotive, cigarette, coatings, building and construction, and medical end markets. It produces acetic acid from carbon monoxide and methanol, a natural gas derivative. Celanese produces its own methanol at its Clear Lake, Texas, plant, which benefits from access to low-cost U.S. natural gas. The company recently announced that it will expand acetic acid production capacity at Clear Lake by roughly 50%, which should benefit segment margins thanks to lower average unit production costs

The engineered materials segment (around 25% of 2021 EBITDA) produces specialty polymers for a wide variety of end markets. The automotive industry accounts for the largest portion at around one third of segment revenue; other key end markets include construction and medical devices. This segment uses acetic acid, methanol, and ethylene to produce specialty polymers. Celanese and other specialty polymer producers have benefited in recent years from automakers light weighting vehicles, or replacing small metal pieces with lighter plastic pieces. Celanese should also benefit from increasing electric vehicle and hybrid adoption, as the company makes battery separator components.

Financial Strength:

Celanese is currently in excellent financial health. As of Dec. 31, 2021, the company had around $4 billion in debt and $0.5 billion in cash. Celanese is undergoing a portfolio transformation, exiting legacy joint venture deals and acquiring new assets to increase its engineered materials portfolio, such as the Santoprene business from ExxonMobil, which resulted in slightly higher debt. However, it is generally expected that the company’s balance sheet and leverage ratios to remain healthy as Celanese should generate enough free cash flow to meet its financial obligations. The cyclical nature of the chemicals business could cause coverage ratios to fluctuate from year to year. However, Celanese should still generate positive free cash flow well in excess of dividends.

Bulls Say:

  • Celanese built out its core acetic acid production facilities at a significantly lower capital cost per ton than its competitors thanks to the scale of its facilities (1.8 million tons versus average 0.5 million tons).
  • Celanese should benefit from producing an increasing proportion of its acetic acid in the U.S. to take advantage of low-cost natural gas. 
  • The engineered materials auto business should grow more quickly than global auto production because of greater use of these products in each vehicle.

Company Profile:

Celanese is one of the world’s largest producers of acetic acid and its downstream derivative chemicals, which are used in various end markets, including coatings and adhesives. The company also produces specialty polymers used in the automotive, electronics, medical, and consumer end markets as well as cellulose derivatives used in cigarette filters.

(Source: Morningstar)

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Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Company books multiple records which results in increase of its fair value estimate

Business Strategy and Outlook:

Stifel Financial, along with other investment banks, had relatively strong revenue in 2020 that has been sustained in 2021 as economic uncertainty led to strong trading volume. Additionally, an initial need for capital in the recession and then low interest rates and a strong stock market led to high capital-raising activity.

Stifel Financial has a long history of being an active acquirer. The company ended 2020 with a Tier 1 leverage ratio of about 12% compared with a previously targeted 10%. With several hundred million dollars of arguably excess capital, the company could make some decent-size acquisitions. Barring growth through acquisitions, as valuations may be too high for most investment banks and investment managers, the company may see some growth from a renewed commitment to its independent advisor business.

Financial Strength:

Stifel’s financial health is fairly good. At the end of 2020, the company had approximately $1.1 billion of corporate debt and over $2 billion of cash on its balance sheet. Its next large debt maturity is $500 million in 2024.The company’s total leverage is less than 8, which is fair considering the mix of its investment banking and traditional banking operations. At the end of 2020, Stifel was at its disclosed target of a 11.9% Tier 1 leverage ratio. Given that its Tier 1 leverage ratio is above management’s previously stated target of 10%, the company should resume more material share repurchases or pursue acquisitions. Stifel has a history of making opportunistic acquisitions.

Bulls Say:

  • Stifel’s string of acquisitions has increased operational scale and expertise. 
  • Stifel is an experienced acquirer and integrator. A recession could provide ample acquisition opportunities. 
  • Net interest income growth over the previous several years at the company’s bank materially expanded wealth management operating margins, and the increased size of the bank and wealth management business provides diversification with its institutional securities business.

Company Profile:

Stifel Financial is a middle-market-focused investment bank that produces more than 90% of its revenue in the United States. Approximately 60% of the company’s net revenue is derived from its global wealth management division, which supports over 2,000 financial advisors, with the remainder coming from its institutional securities business. Stifel has a history of being an active acquirer of other financial service firms.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Rollins well positioned to fend off mounting inflationary pressures in 2022

Business Strategy and Outlook

Rollins’ strategy aims to further reinforce the density benefits afforded to its market-leading operations in the highly localized pest-control services markets, which it competes in, across North America. Ever-improving unit costs are offered by economies of density in each regional market in which Rollins operates. Rollins seeks to continue to amass these benefits via organic growth and continued focus on tuck-in acquisitions aimed at rolling up the fragmented North American pest-control service market. Recent investments in route optimization technology exemplify Rollins’ cost-out strategy, the continued roll-out of which is likely to widen EBIT margins. 

A sustainable cost advantage has accrued to Rollins as result of execution of the business’ strategy, leading to our wide-moat designation. Pest-control acquisitions and continuing focus on cost-out initiatives are key to the strategy. Nonetheless, Rollins remains equally focused on the defense of its leading North American market positions, noting the loss of customers quickly unwinds the operating-margin-widening benefits of density. Rollins requires annual training of all of pest-control technicians, while also limiting its own organic market share gains to maintain strong service levels and customer satisfaction.

Financial Strength

Rollins’ typically conservative balance sheet is in good health, sitting in a net debt position of $50 million at the end of 2021, or 0.1 times net debt/EBITDA. Rollins takes a highly prudent approach to the use of debt, typically using it only to act opportunistically when a quality acquisition target is in play and using subsequent operating cash flow to promptly retire debt. Alternatively, returning surplus capital to shareholders could also be considered. Rollins maintains $425 million in debt facilities, which provide the group with an additional source of liquidity. The facilities carry a leverage covenant of 3.0 times net debt/EBITDA and matures in April 2024.

Wide-moat Rollins capped off an already impressive 2021 performance with a strong fourth-quarter showing. 2021 adjusted EBITDA of $546 million tracked 2% ahead of our full-year expectations. On a constant-currency basis, full year organic sales grew at an elevated 8.7%, aligning with our expectations for a strong cyclical recovery in pest control demand in 2021. Tuck-in acquisitions added 2.7% in additional top-line growth in 2021 and drove the business’ modest outperformance relative to our revenue and earnings forecasts. Otherwise, Rollins’ late 2021 performance tracked in line with our long-term expectations for the U.S. pest control industry leader. 

Bulls Say’s 

  • The recent uptick in capital allocated to tuck-in acquisitions is likely to continue, supporting economies of scale and boosting operating margins. 
  • Phase 2 of the route optimization technology rollout looks to further widen Rollins’ EBIT margin. 
  • Increasing per-capita spending on pest control should support Rollins’ organic growth at a mid-single-digit clip.

Company Profile 

Rollins is a global leader in route-based pest-control services, with operations spanning North, Central and South America, Europe, the Middle East and Africa and Australia. Its portfolio of pest-control brands includes the prominent Orkin brand, market leader in the U.S.–where it boasts near national coverage–and in Canada. Residential pest and termite prevention predominate the services provided by Rollins, owing to the group’s ongoing focus on U.S. and Canadian markets. 

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Abbott benefits from Omicron surge, but Covid-19 could turn to headwind in 2022

Business Strategy and Outlook:

Since 2013, Abbott has continued to improve the profitability of its four segments: nutritionals, devices, diagnostics, and established pharmaceuticals. Although the company has made progress over the last nine years, it still lags key rivals on profitability measures despite competing in businesses that are characterized by attractive margins. Abbott’s efforts to improve efficiency, including streamlining its distribution channels and building facilities in lower-cost locations like China and India, have demonstrated some success. But there is still room for improvement as we look at the company’s consolidated profitability.

As with all medtech companies, Abbott’s big challenge, over the longer term, is to fuel innovation. The bar for securing reimbursement for new technology has risen as payers have become more stringent about clinical data before committing to payment. While Abbott has seen recent success with FreeStyle Libre, we’re less impressed with its historical record on new product launches. Compared with key medical device competitors, including Boston Scientific, Medtronic, and Edwards Lifesciences, Abbott hasn’t cultivated similar revolutionary advancements. The firm’s forte seems to focus on incremental improvements to the existing technology platforms it has acquired over the last 15 years.

Financial Strength:

The fair value estimate of Abbott remains same at $104 per share, which assumes rapid diagnostics revenue will decline by 23% in 2022 as COVID-19 transitions to an endemic disease. That decline will be offset by ongoing recovery in non-pandemic procedure volume, and Abbott’s latest new product launches, including Amplatzer Amulet for left atrial appendage closure.

Abbott’s balance sheet is a pillar of strength and can weather the COVID-19 crisis with ease. The large acquisitions of St. Jude Medical and Alere increased leverage, and Abbott enjoyed relatively less financial flexibility during 2016-17 but remained steady enough to meet its debt obligations and continued to raise its dividend. More recently, Abbott’s debt/EBITDA has hovered just over 2 times, which reflects the firm’s ability to generates $4 billion-$5 billion in annual free cash flow, and closer to $7 billion thanks to the COVID-19 windfall. This also means Abbott can handily engage in more tuck-in acquisitions while also supporting sizable increases in its dividend.

Bulls Say:

  • Abbott has been investing in structural heart products and recently entered the left atrial appendage closure market. 
  • Early results from an investigational clinical trial on the Tendyne transcatheter mitral valve were favorable. If the pivotal trial results are favorable, this could give a boost to Abbott’s structural heart unit. 
  • Abbott’s sale of its established pharma business in developed markets to Mylan and its acquisition of CFR and Veropharm have put the branded generics business in a strong position to benefit from growing demand in emerging markets.

Company Profile:

Abbott manufactures and markets medical devices, adult and pediatric nutritional products, diagnostic equipment and testing kits, and branded generic drugs. Products include pacemakers, implantable cardioverter defibrillators, neuromodulation devices, coronary stents, catheters, infant formula, nutritional liquids for adults, molecular diagnostic platforms, and immunoassays and point-of-care diagnostic equipment. Abbott derives approximately 60% of sales outside the United States

(Source: Morningstar)

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Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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IFF Positioned for Long-Term Success as the Largest Global Specialty Ingredient Producer

Business Strategy and Outlook

International Flavors & Fragrances is a global leader in the specialty ingredients space. The company has grown rapidly via acquisition, having added DuPont’s nutrition and biosciences business in 2021 and Frutarom in 2018. IFF holds an enviable asset portfolio focused on value-added products used in food and beverages, fragrances, personal care, enzymes, probiotics, and pharmaceuticals. Its legacy business operated in the $20 billion-plus flavors and fragrances industry with a roughly 25% market share. Key competitors include Givaudan (25%), Firmenich (16%), and Symrise (12%). These four flavor and fragrance companies command roughly three fourths of the global market. IFF’s products affect the desired taste, smell, or mouth feel based on customer specifications.

IFF has four reporting segments divided by end market. Nourish is the largest segment, which generates a little over half of revenue. This segment holds IFF’s legacy taste segment and DuPont’s ingredients business, including plant-based protein formulations and other vital ingredients like texturants and emulsifiers.

Health and biosciences, which generates a little over 20% of revenue, is mostly the legacy Danisco industrial enzymes and cultures (probiotics) businesses. IFF has a roughly 20% share in both the enzymes market and the cultures market. 

The scent segment, consisting of IFF’s legacy fragrances business, generates a midteens percentage of revenue. IFF’s smallest component is pharma solutions, producing inactive ingredients such as excipients (pill binders) and time-release polymers.

 Proprietary formulations are critical drivers of revenue growth. For example, rather than supplying simple flavor solutions, IFF can deliver innovative solutions that modulate the consumer experience. These “fine-tuning” solutions can reduce costs for customers, allowing for the use of cheaper ingredients, extend a product’s shelf life, or add probiotic nutrition. Additionally, the company’s offerings help customers remove undesirable content (fat, sugar, and sodium) from a product without sacrificing the consumer experience.

Financial Strength

IFF has an elevated debt level, thanks to the roughly $10 billion in debt that the company raised to fund the DuPont nutrition and biosciences and Frutarom acquisitions. As of Sept. 30, 2021, total debt was a little over $11.5 billion and the company held roughly $0.8 billion in cash and cash equivalents. Management reported a net financial debt/adjusted EBITDA ratio of 4.1 times as of Sept. 30, 2021. However, management plans to use excess cash flow to repay debt, toward the goal of achieving a net debt/EBITDA ratio of less than 3 times by early 2024, or 36 months after the DuPont nutrition and biosciences acquisition closed. While IFF will carry elevated leverage, its indebtedness should prove manageable, given the relatively stable cash flows we expect the company to generate. Further, IFF is undergoing a portfolio review to divest noncore assets as a way to accelerate debt reduction, such as the microbial control divestiture in 2022 for $1.3 billion. As such, we believe IFF should be able to meet all of its financial obligations, including dividends, pensions, and postemployment benefit liabilities.

Bulls Say’s

  •  As the largest specialty ingredients producer globally, IFF holds an enviable portfolio of market-leading products spanning multiple industries.
  • The company is well positioned to capitalize on further growth in developing markets, where it generates the most sales.
  • IFF’s high R&D spending (around 6% of sales) acts as a barrier to entry, underpins innovation, and promotes future growth

Company Profile 

International Flavors & Fragrances produces ingredients for the food, beverage, health, household goods, personal care, and pharmaceutical industries. The company makes proprietary formulations, partnering with customers to deliver custom solutions. The nourish segment, which generates roughly half of revenue, is a leading flavour producer and also sell texturants, plant-based proteins, and other ingredients. The health and biosciences business, which generates around one fourth of revenue, is a global leader in probiotics and enzymes. IFF is also one of the leading fragrance producers in the world. The firm also sells pharmaceutical ingredients such as excipients and time-release polymers.

(Source: MorningStar)

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Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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American Airlines Group Inc. : An 80%-90% recovery in business travel that consequently increases at GDP levels over the average term.

Business Strategy and Outlook

American Airlines is the largest U.S.-based carrier by capacity. Before the coronavirus pandemic, much of the company’s story was based on realizing cost efficiencies from its transformational 2013 merger with U.S. Airways and strengthening the firm’s hubs to expand margins. While we think that American Airlines has done a good job at limiting unit cost increases, we note that the firm lagged peers in unit costs over the previous aviation cycle. Management sees the pandemic crisis as an opportunity to structurally improve the firm’s cost position relative to peers.

In the leisure market, it is expected low-cost carriers to prevent American Airlines from increasing yields with inflation. American’s basic economy offering effectively serves the leisure market, it is not expected that the firm to thrive in this segment. A leisure-led recovery in commercial aviation is anticipated, reflecting customers being more willing to visit friends and family and vacation in a pandemic than they are to go on business travel.

American Airlines will participate in the recovery of business and international leisure travel after a vaccine for COVID-19 becomes available. It is suspected that a recovery in business travel will be critical for American, as the firm’s high-margin frequent-flier program is closely tied to business travel. Business travellers will often use miles from a co-branded credit card to upgrade flights when their company is unwilling to pay a premium price. Banks pay top dollar for frequent-flier miles, which gives American a high-margin income stream.

The COVID-19 pandemic has presented airlines with the sharpest demand shock in history, and many of our projections are based on our assumptions around how illness and vaccinations affect society. We’re expecting a full recovery in capacity and an 80%-90% recovery in business travel that subsequently grows at GDP levels over the medium term.

Financial Strength

American is the most leveraged U.S.-based major airline due to its fleet renewal program and from the COVID-19 pandemic. As the pandemic has wreaked havoc on air travel demand and airlines’ business model, liquidity has become more important in 2020 than in recent years. American Airlines, more than peers, increased leverage, and diluted equity during the COVID-19 pandemic. We think American Airlines’ comparably higher financial leverage will make it difficult for the firm to maneuver going forward, and that management will have few capitals allocation options other than deleveraging post-pandemic. American Airlines came into the crisis with considerably more debt than peers, with gross debt to EBITDA sitting at roughly 4.5 times in 2019. American ended 2021 with $38.1 billion of debt and $13.4 billion of cash. It is expected that American Airlines will use incremental free cash flow to deleverage after the crisis. We anticipate EBITDA expansion and debt reductions will reduce gross debt/EBITDA to roughly two to three turns in the 2025-26 timeframe. The firm has $2.6 billion of debt coming due in 2022, and we expect that the firm will use cash on the balance sheet to pay the debt.

Bulls Say’s

  • American Airlines has the youngest fleet among U.S. major airlines, which should dampen fuel expense and maintenance going forward.
  • American Airlines has largely completed its fleet renewal, which should decrease capital expenditures going forward.
  • Leisure travellers are becoming more comfortable with flying during the COVID-19 pandemic

Company Profile

American Airlines is the world’s largest airline by scheduled revenue passenger miles. The firm’s major hubs are Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas/Fort Worth, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, Philadelphia, Phoenix, and Washington, D.C. After completing a major fleet renewal, the company has the youngest fleet of U.S. legacy carriers.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Long-Term Competition a Greater Concern for Five Below Than Near-term Supply Chain, Labor Costs

Business Strategy and Outlook

Five Below’s management team has generated consistent returns by leveraging a differentiated concept and prudent expansion strategy. The firm should be able to expand profitably, as its nimble supply and distribution network are well-suited to meeting the ever-changing demands of its customers (preteens, teenagers, and their money-wielding parents). Five Below offers a variety of items in a tailored store environment while giving parents a measure of cost-certainty, a concept that should remain attractive to shoppers under a range of economic scenarios. 

Still, online retailers’ cost leverage is rising, and as it is estimated that many of Five Below’s target households have access to an Amazon Prime membership, the digitization threat looms. Competitive pressure also comes from physical rivals, including mass merchants dedicating aisles to items priced at a given dollar amount or less. 

Financial Strength

Debt-free with ample cash generation, Five Below’s financial health is strong. Shifting its assortment to include more cleaning and essential products kept the stores open even as infection rates soared in late-2020. Store growth should remain a capital priority (albeit with a continued reliance on leased locations) during our 10-year explicit forecast, with our estimates suggesting Five Below will exceed its 2,500-unit nationwide target toward the end of that time frame. Five Below’s cash generation should lead to share repurchases, escalating as its distribution center build-out is completed. It is estimated that the firm eventually uses roughly 65% of its annual cash flow from operations to buy back equity. Alternatively, it could pursue acquisitions of regional chains to accelerate its growth, though we do not incorporate such purchases into our forecasts because of their uncertain timing and nature.

Bulls Say’s 

  • Five Below’s differentiated concept gives its core customers access to a wide range of items while providing parents cost certainty, a combination enabled by its efficiency and flexible merchandising. 
  • One of the few sizable retailers we cover with significant room for expansion, Five Below should build cost leverage as it grows, helping to protect margins from competitive erosion. 
  • Strategically entering new markets with several stores opened concurrently, Five Below has rapidly gained an ability to spread distribution, supply chain, and advertising costs over a large local sales base.

Company Profile 

Five Below is a value-oriented retailer that operated 1,020 stores in the United States as of the end of fiscal 2020. Catering to teen and preteen consumers, stores feature a wide variety of merchandise, the vast majority of which is priced below $6. The assortment focuses on discretionary items in several categories, particularly leisure (such as sporting goods, toys, and electronics; 47% of fiscal 2020 sales), fashion and home (for example, beauty products and accessories, home goods, and storage solutions; 36% of fiscal 2020 sales), and party and snack (including seasonal goods, candy, and beverages; 17% of fiscal 2020 sales). The chain had stores in 38 states as of the end of fiscal 2020.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.