Category: Global stocks

Global Stock refer to share that are traded on multiple exchanges with different currencies. For example, if a publicly-traded company issues shares in dollars on the New York Stock Exchange and in pounds on the London Stock Exchange, it is issuing global registered shares. Global stock to a portfolio offers diversification and may provide higher returns. Global stock markets may experience higher levels of volatility than other domestic markets with bigger swings to both the upside and downside.

Categories
Global stocks

Kerry is one of the industry’s 10 major firms, which accounts for less than 50% of industry revenue

Business Strategy and Outlook 

Kerry Group has evolved from its humble roots as an Irish dairy co-operative into a global flavour and nutrition powerhouse serving the food, beverage, and food-service sectors. The wide economic moat rating is supported by intangible assets and switching costs stemming from the company’s wide range of ingredient solutions and strong service component, which contributes to partnership like client relationships. Kerry works with clients to find market opportunities that can be successfully delivered, in contrast to its flavour and fragrance competitors, which take a more transactional strategy that focuses on delivering bespoke taste solutions utilizing their considerable research and development resources.

These holistic collaborations with a range of customers from various end-use segments and geographies produce essential market and consumer insights that enrich Kerry’s service offering, a virtuous cycle at the heart of the company’s considerable competitive advantages. Post coronavirus, Kerry has unique exposure to the most dynamic segments of the global food and beverage business, since two thirds of its revenue comes from local and regional food and beverage clients and approximately one fifth is derived from the food-service market. Taste and nutrition accounts for over 92% of sales and is the primary growth engine for Kerry. The worldwide food ingredient and taste industry is fragmented, with projected sales of more than $70 billion and a growth rate of 2% to 3%. Kerry is one of the industry’s 10 major firms, which accounts for less than 50% of industry revenue. Kerry’s other section is a somewhat undifferentiated dairy business, after the recent sale of the company’s meals and meats division.

Financial Strength

Kerry is in strong financial health. The company has moderate financial gearing, with net debt/2021 adjusted EBITDA of 1.9 times, and consistently generates good amounts of free cash flow, though at a lower level than F&F companies and the leading consumer staple companies in general. Aggregate acquisition spending of around EUR 1.25 billion through the next five years based on the company’s strategy to lead consolidation in the fragmented food ingredient and flavour market. Due to Kerry’s acquisitive nature and above-average capital spending, discretionary cash generation (free cash flow will average close to 5% of sales over the next five years) is moderate. Typically, Kerry spends 3%-5% of sales on capital expenditures and around 6.5% (based on taste and nutrition sales) on average on bolt-on acquisitions. Although the former is to remain in line, the capital spending on acquisitions normalising a bit over the next five years, but still remaining adequate driven by the company’s core strategy to further develop its integrated solutions offering through a broader geographic presence and a wider range of ingredient solutions, catering better to both the food-service and developing markets. The dividend policy looks conservative, given a fiscal 2021 payout ratio of about 25% despite moderate financial gearing and good free cash flow generation. It appears Kerry may be deliberately keeping sufficient financial flexibility in case it decides to undertake a significant, transformational acquisition mostly paid in cash, though past experience.

Bulls Say’s

  • Kerry’s integrated solutions model is hard to replicate due to its high service component (based on decades of experience) and wide range of solutions offered. 
  • Kerry is one of the largest firms in a fragmented flavour and specialty food ingredient industry, which provides ample opportunities to consolidate and gain meaningful scale. 
  • Ingredient sales are expected to grow faster than food or beverage sales because of outsourcing, secular trends like clean labelling and health and wellness, and a rising number of applications and technologies (driving volume growth).

Company Profile 

Kerry Group is a global leader in taste and ingredient technology servicing the food, beverage, and pharmaceutical sectors. The company’s more than 150 manufacturing facilities supply clients in 150 countries with 18,000 food and ingredient items. It gets around 80% of its revenue from developed countries and 20% from the developing world, servicing a wide range of end-use sectors, such as meat, meals, snacks, dairy, drinks, and pharmaceuticals. Kerry has expanded through a combination of organic development and multiple tuck-in acquisitions.

 (Source: MorningStar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice. The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do, business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities. Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and is not liable for any unintentional errors in the document. The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Global stocks Shares

United Airlines will participate in the recovery of business and international leisure travel in 2022 and 2023

Business Strategy and Outlook 

United Airlines is the most internationally focused U.S.-based carrier by operating revenue, with almost 40% of 2019 revenue coming from international activities. Before the coronavirus pandemic, much of the company’s story focused on realizing cost efficiencies to expand margins. In the leisure market, United is to continue receiving yield pressure from low-cost carriers. While its basic economy offering effectively serves the leisure market, don’t expect the firm to thrive in this segment. United’s international routes will not be as pressured, but that international flights will be difficult to fill until border restrictions are lifted.

United Airlines will participate in the recovery of business and international leisure travel in 2022 and 2023. A recovery in business travel will be critical for United to maintain the attractive economics of the frequent-flier program. Business travellers will often use miles from a cobranded credit card to upgrade flights when their company is unwilling to pay a premium price. Banks are willing to pay top dollar for these frequent-flier miles, which provides a high-margin income stream to United. The COVID-19 pandemic has presented airlines with the sharpest demand shock in history, and much of the projections are based on assumptions around how illness and vaccinations affect society. A full recovery is expected in capacity and an 80%-90% recovery in business travel that subsequently grows at GDP levels over the medium term. United has considerably greater regulatory uncertainty than peer carriers due to its increased exposure to international travel, and summer of 2022 will be a critical test of international travel recovery for United.

Financial Strength

United has a roughly average debt burden relative to peer U.S. carriers, but an average airline balance sheet is not strong in absolute terms. United carries a large amount of debt, comparatively thin margins, and substantial revenue uncertainty. As the pandemic has wreaked havoc on air travel demand and airlines’ business models, liquidity has become more important than in recent years. The primary risks to airline investors are increased leverage and equity dilution as airlines look to bolster solvency while demand is in the doldrums. United’s priority after the pandemic will be deleveraging the balance sheet, but this will take several years because of the firm’s thin margins. United came into the pandemic with a reasonable amount of debt, with the gross debt/EBITDA ratio sitting at roughly 4.5 times in 2019. United, like all airlines, has materially increased its leverage since February 2020 and has issued debt and received support from the government to survive a previously unfathomable decline in air traffic. As of the fourth quarter of 2021, United has $33.4 billion of debt and $18.3 billion of cash on the balance sheet. Roughly break-even levels of profitability are in 2022 and profitability in 2023 and beyond, there is no leverage to increase considerably from here on out.

Bulls Say’s

  • United has renewed its frequent-flier partnership with Chase, potentially creating room for long-term margin expansion.
  • An increasing focus on capacity restraint across the industry, combined with structurally lower fuel prices, should boost airlines’ financial performance over the medium term. 
  • Leisure travellers have become more comfortable with flying during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Company Profile 

United Airlines is a major U.S. network carrier. United’s hubs include San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Denver, Los Angeles, New York/Newark, and Washington, D.C. United operates a hub-and-spoke system that is more focused on international travel than legacy peers.

 (Source: MorningStar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice. The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do, business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities. Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and is not liable for any unintentional errors in the document. The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Global stocks

Sherwin-Williams is the largest provider of architectural paint in the United States

Business Strategy & Outlook

Sherwin-Williams is the largest provider of architectural paint in the United States. The company has approximately 4,800 stores and sells premium paint at higher price points than most competitors. Sherwin-Williams also sells its products in big-box stores and provides coatings for original equipment manufacturers. More than three fourths of Sherwin’s business occur in North America, with much of its international exposure acquired during the 2016 purchase of Valspar. The acquisition of Valspar has bolstered its previously modest retail presence, as Valspar’s long-standing relationship with Lowe’s led to an exclusive partnership for Sherwin in 2018. Sherwin also obtained Valspar’s industrial business, expanding its performance coatings segment. 

In Sherwin’s largest segment, the Americas group, it has maintained strong growth, even in developed markets, as it rolls out nearly 100 new stores every year throughout the Americas. Its strategic focus on building this segment has created a strong value proposition for contractors. Jobsite delivery, in-app ordering, and a capacity for high-volume orders save time for customers and allows for premium product pricing. Roughly 90% of sales in the Americas group are to professional painters with the remaining 10% to do-it-yourself consumers. The consumer brands segment markets Sherwin’s paint brands through retail channels, such as Menards, and is the exclusive provider of coating products to Lowe’s. It owns a variety of widely known brands such as Valspar, Purdy, Minwax, Krylon, Thompson’s WaterSeal, and Dutch Boy. The performance coatings business produces a diverse product mix and accounts for much of the firm’s global exposure. The segment sells everything from marine paints to airplane and fire-resistant coatings, many of which are custom-formulated to suit client needs.

Financial Strengths

The Sherwin-Williams has a sound capital structure, and its consistent free cash flow generation should easily support its debt-service requirements and future capital-allocation decisions. The firm’s leverage increased following its 2016 acquisition of Valspar. Management has made progress in reducing its debt, with net debt/EBITDA coming down to roughly 3.0 from 4.4 in 2017. Following Sherwin’s acquisition of Valspar and PPG’s 2018 acquisition of Comex, there are few North American paint companies that could be potential acquisition targets for Sherwin. One doesn’t anticipate Sherwin will make any sizable acquisitions in the near future as the firm focuses on its retail stores and Lowe’s partnership. Sherwin leverages its commercial paper program and credit facilities to fund a portion of its working capital and expenses. Because of this, the firm usually has less than $250 million of cash on hand. The firm has roughly $8 billion in outstanding debt with staggered maturities through 2052, but its next maturity isn’t until 2024 when roughly $500 million is due. Sherwin-Williams has a history of strong free cash flow generation, even in a downturn, which demonstrates the durability of its business model.

Bulls Say

  • Professional painters have favored Sherwin products for decades, leading to strong brand loyalty and pricing power. 
  • New residential construction and increased rental properties should provide strong tailwinds for residential coatings growth. 
  • The exclusive partnership with Lowe’s creates an additional avenue for Sherwin to sell its products to new customers without meaningful cannibalization risk.

Company Description

Sherwin-Williams is the largest provider of architectural paint in the United States. The company has approximately 4,800 stores and sells premium paint at higher price points than most competitors. Sherwin-Williams also sells paint-related products in big-box stores and provides coatings for original equipment manufacturers.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Global stocks

Waste Management Continues to Exert Strong Pricing Power; Raises 2022 Guidance

Business Strategy & Outlook

Waste industry leader Waste Management enjoys leading market share and unmatched dominance in landfill ownership, which is nearly impossible to replicate given immense regulatory hurdles. This leadership position expanded after the firm’s October 2020 acquisition of Advanced Disposal, which had been the fourth-largest publicly traded waste collection and disposal company in the United States. As a fully integrated waste-hauler, the company leverages a vast network of collection routes and transfer stations, which bestow significant control over the waste stream, funneling waste from numerous end-market customers (commercial, industrial, and residential) into its highly valuable landfill assets. Waste Management collects fees (known as tipping fees) from third-party waste haulers that use the firm’s transfer stations and landfills.

Management execution has been impressive over the past five-plus years, with a renewed focus on yield management and optimizing the cost infrastructure, including the divestiture of noncore waste-to-energy assets. These factors have enabled the firm to translate North American macroeconomic expansion into waste volume gains, core pricing above inflation, and positive operating leverage. Waste Management’s recycling business was adversely affected by China’s import restrictions, which pressured recycled commodity prices. However, Waste Management has made efforts to reduce contamination rates and transition to a fee-for-service model, which has helped mitigate these headwinds. The Waste Management to continue its acquisition strategy, focusing on tuck-in opportunities to boost market share in established geographies. Its ability to raise core prices on acquired volume (thanks to its vast ownership of landfills, a preferred asset) should remain a key organic growth driver.

Financial Strengths

At the end of Waste Management’s fiscal second-quarter 2022, the firm had $14.3 billion of outstanding debt and $894 million of cash, which represents a gross debt/2022 estimated EBITDA ratio of about 2.6. Management’s targeted leverage ratio is 2.5-3. While Waste Management has a significant amount of outstanding debt, the firm generates strong and stable free cash flow, so one was not concerned about the firm’s ability to service its debt. Indeed, between 2022 and 2026, the firm will generate $13 billion of cumulative free cash flow. The firm will use excess cash to make bolt-on acquisitions, fund its growing dividend, and repurchase shares.

Bulls Say

  • Waste Management has a stable business model and enjoys a wide economic moat rooted in intangible assets (regulatory permits for landfills) and cost advantages (route density). 
  • Management has successfully streamlined the firm’s cost infrastructure, optimized the efficiency of collection operations, and improved pricing execution in the core traditional solid waste business. 
  • Significant investments are planned for renewable energy generation and recycling projects. These projects should support stronger earnings and free cash flow growth and raise the firm’s already strong ESG profile.

Company Description

Waste Management ranks as the largest integrated provider of traditional solid waste services in the United States, operating approximately 260 active landfills and about 340 transfer stations. The company serves residential, commercial, and industrial end markets and is also a leading recycler in North America.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Global stocks

American Airlines is the largest U.S.-based carrier by capacity

Business Strategy & Outlook

American Airlines is the largest U.S.-based carrier by capacity. Before the coronavirus pandemic, much of the company’s story was based on realizing cost efficiencies from its transformational 2013 merger with U.S. Airways and strengthening its hubs to expand margins. While American Airlines has done a good job at limiting unit cost increases, it has been noted that the firm lagged peers in unit costs over the previous aviation cycle. Management sees the pandemic crisis as an opportunity to structurally improve the firm’s cost position relative to peers. The American will become more efficient from the crisis, but one cannot be as confident that it will improve its relative position among airlines. In the leisure market, the low-cost carriers prevent American Airlines from increasing yields with inflation. While the American’s basic economy offering effectively serves the leisure market, one doesn’t expect the firm to thrive in this segment. It is expecting a leisure-led recovery in commercial aviation, reflecting customers being more willing to visit friends and family and vacation in a pandemic than they are to go on business travel. 

The American Airlines will participate in the recovery of business and international leisure travel now that a vaccine for COVID-19 is available. A recovery in business travel will be critical for American, as the firm’s high-margin frequent-flier program is closely tied to business travel. Business travelers will often use miles from a co-branded credit card to upgrade flights when their company is unwilling to pay a premium price. Banks pay top dollar for frequent-flier miles, which gives American a high-margin income stream. The COVID-19 pandemic presented airlines with the sharpest demand shock in history, and much of is based on assumptions around how illness and vaccinations affect society. A full recovery in capacity and an 80%-90% recovery in business travel that subsequently grows at GDP levels over the medium term. Air travel demand has recovered sharply, but labor constraints have prevented airlines from fully meeting demand.

Financial Strengths

American is the most leveraged U.S.-based major airline due to its fleet renewal program and the COVID-19 pandemic. As the pandemic wreaked havoc on air travel demand and airlines’ business model, liquidity became more important in 2020 than in recent years. American Airlines, more than peers, increased leverage and diluted equity during the pandemic. The American Airlines’ comparably higher financial leverage will make it difficult for the firm to maneuver going forward, and that management will have few capital allocation options other than deleveraging post-pandemic. American Airlines came into the crisis with considerably more debt than peers, with gross debt/EBITDA sitting at roughly 4.5 times in 2019. American ended 2021 with $38.1 billion of debt and $13.4 billion of cash. It will use incremental free cash flow to deleverage after the crisis. The EBITDA expansion and debt reductions will reduce gross debt/EBITDA to roughly 2-3 turns in the 2025-26-time frame. The firm has $2.6 billion of debt coming due in 2022, and it will use cash on the balance sheet to pay that.

Bulls Say

  • American Airlines has the youngest fleet among U.S. major airlines, which should damp fuel expense and maintenance going forward. 
  • American Airlines has largely completed its fleet renewal, which should decrease capital expenditures going forward. 
  • Demand for air travel has recovered sharply from the COVID-19 pandemic.

Company Description

American Airlines is the world’s largest airline by scheduled revenue passenger miles. The firm’s major hubs are Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas/Fort Worth, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, Philadelphia, Phoenix, and Washington, D.C. After completing a major fleet renewal, the company has the youngest fleet of U.S. legacy carriers.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Global stocks

Burberry and its leather goods and apparel peers could make existing customers buy more through product innovation

Business Strategy and Outlook 

Burberry Group has transformed from an essentially licensed/wholesale business model with inconsistent regional product and brand presentation into a strong monobrand luxury player with a consistent message, good control over distribution, and a global presence. Burberry is the category leader in its trench coat business, enabling it to generate high operating margins in this category through scale and pricing power. It benefits from a high degree of control over distribution, which allows it to correct operational mistakes more quickly, showcase the brand at key locations in global capitals, avoid excessive discounting, and retain stronger negotiating clout with wholesale partners. Although prior-year retail expansion and rent inflation have weighed on margins, Burberry has built an excellent global platform from which to execute. As space expansion is essentially flat and new demand comes from existing stores and online platforms, operating margins and cash flows should be boosted.

Burberry was one of the first in the market to invest in digital front and back-office systems. It aggregates customer data across channels and regions, which helps it target marketing campaigns better and can act as an input in product development and merchandising. While demand for luxury products is linked to GDP growth and an increasing number of wealthy and middle-class people, Burberry and its leather goods and apparel peers could make existing customers buy more through product innovation. In the long run, growth should come from China, consumption should be supported by growing employment in high-wage sectors.

Financial Strength

Like many of its luxury peers, Burberry is in a strong financial position with net cash of GBP 1.2 billion as of the end of March 2022. Burberry is strongly positioned to weather the COVID-19-related crisis and potential demand slowdown through high inflation. Burberry is a cash-generative business and has historically funded growth investments from operating cash flows. Burberry will continue doing so and be able to reward shareholders through dividend and buybacks.

Bulls Say’s

  • Over the past 10 years, Burberry has built a strong global brand with control over its supply chain, distribution, and marketing. It also substantially reduced discounting, which should support the brand’s luxury image.
  • New designer collections have been positively received (full-price comparable sales up by double digits on 2019 level), which should boost performance once pandemic restrictions are removed. 
  • Cash flow margins should improve through operating expenditure leverage and capital expenditure reduction, as the brand returns to growth off the same store base.

Company Profile 

Burberry, a British luxury monobrand, which is more than 160 years old, is best known for its outerwear and signature plaid. It has a global presence with 29% of revenue generated in Europe, 46% in Asia, and 25% in North America. The Chinese are Burberry’s most important customers, accounting for more than 30% of sales. Apparel contributes about 63% of sales.

(Source: MorningStar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice. The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do, business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities. Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and is not liable for any unintentional errors in the document. The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Global stocks

Wolters’ legacy print business, which is declining at a high-single-digit rate each year, has proved to be a drag on the overall business

Business Strategy and Outlook 

Wolters Kluwer has over the past decade or so undergone a wholesale reorganization of its business, taking it from being the leading print publisher of professional information materials to being one of the largest players in the potentially much larger digital information services space. This change has come at a cost, however, with the company spending over EUR 2 billion on net acquisitions over the period in order to position itself better in the digital information services market. Wolters’ legacy print business, which is declining at a high-single-digit rate each year, has proved to be a drag on the overall business, with organic revenue growth improving to 4.3% in 2019, the highest level in over a decade, while the proportion of print revenue fell to a new low of 9% in 2020.

The inflection point for Wolters Kluwer has now been reached, with print revenue now at a single-digit contribution to group revenue, down from 52% in 2004. With print revenue now posing less of a drag on the group, and the company’s more scalable elements gaining traction with clients, the organic revenue growth should increase linearly, albeit modestly from here. Recurring revenue across the group has also increased materially and currently stands at 80% of total revenue for 2020, increasing the stability and predictability of the underlying revenue base. These factors have also resulted in material improvements in operating margins across key verticals. Examples of this can be seen in core products such as UpToDate in the clinical solutions business, which is currently growing at double-digit rates, driving operating margins in the health business to all-time highs. As the company moves up the value chain in the information services it offers to clients, further enhancement to margins across a variety of business activities is eminently possible. However, there are inherent risks in Wolters’ strategy, as the company has moved from a print publishing business with relatively few competitive pressures to a digital information business in which it must keep innovating to stay ahead of existing and new competitors.

Financial Strength

Wolters Kluwer’s net debt/EBITDA ratio is 1.9 times, very much at the lower end of its historical range and comfortably below its 2.5 times long-term target. This is broadly in line with the industry average and it would be considered reasonable, particularly given the relative stability in the company’s revenue base. Wolters is broadly diversified (by geography and business lines) and has made significant progress increasing its recurring revenue streams, which now stand at 80% of total revenue. The company’s debt maturities are long-term-weighted, with only around 20% of its total debt maturing in the next two years. Wolters primarily returns its excess capital to shareholders via a progressive dividend policy, with a payout ratio averaging close to 50% over the past decade. Given the lack of large acquisitions and the strong cash flow, the company has also been active in buying back shares over the past few years.

Bulls Say’s

  • Wolters serves professionals in highly specialized niches, in which it generally holds a number-one or number-two market position. 
  • Digital is more scalable than physical distribution, so the mix shift toward software solutions will help the firm to reduce expenses and expand margins. 
  • Wolters serves numerous niches where there are few reputable alternatives, and pricing tends to be more rational among the major players as a result.

Company Profile 

Wolters Kluwer is a Europe-listed global information services company. It operates across four distinct business segments serving a wide array of clients: health (26% of 2020 sales), tax and accounting (31%), legal and regulatory (23%), and governance, risk, and compliance (20%). Within these divisions, Wolters aims to be the industry leader in a variety of niche, higher-value services

 (Source: MorningStar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice. The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do, business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities. Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and is not liable for any unintentional errors in the document. The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Global stocks Shares

Biogen has strong human genetic validation for its neurology pipeline

Business Strategy and Outlook 

Biogen’s specialty-market-focused drug portfolio and novel, neurology-focused pipeline create a wide economic moat. Biogen’s strategy has its roots in the 2003 merger of Biogen (multiple sclerosis drug Avonex) and Idec (cancer drug Rituxan). While Rituxan is succumbing to biosimilar competition, Biogen is expanding its neurology portfolio beyond MS, including blockbuster neuromuscular disease drug Spinraza and several promising drugs behind Aduhelm in Alzheimer’s disease. n MS, Avonex and longer-acting Plegridy still generate nearly $2 billion in annual sales and remain the leading MS interferon drugs. Biogen’s MS antibody Tysabri also sees $2 billion in annual sales due to its high efficacy. Oral MS drug Tecfidera peaked above $4 billion in sales in 2019, but U.S. generics drastically cut into sales in 2021 after entry in 2020. The new oral therapy Vumerity offers improved GI tolerability but will only partly offset this headwind. While pricing power and demand for Biogen’s injectable MS portfolio are eroding in the face of new competition, Biogen receives substantial royalties on the biggest new competitor, Roche’s Ocrevus, which helps offset pressure on older MS drugs.

Outside of MS, Biogen has strong human genetic validation for its neurology pipeline. Spinal muscular atrophy drug Spinraza (partnered with Ionis) is a $2 billion drug, although competition from Novartis (gene therapy Zolgensma) and Roche (oral drug Evrysdi) are beginning to erode sales. While Aduhelm was approved in the U.S. in June 2021, skepticism surrounding the launch and lack of Medicare coverage have made the drug a commercial failure. That said, Biogen and Eisai’s lecanemab (data fall 2022) could have more definitive data. While there is significant uncertainty surrounding Biogen’s Alzheimer’s pipeline, the market also underestimates Biogen’s remaining pipeline, which includes a continuing partnership with Ionis (including tau-targeting Alzheimer’s drug BIIB080) and drug candidates to treat conditions including stroke, depression, Parkinson’s, pain, and ALS.

Financial Strength

Biogen’s year-end 2021 cash and marketable securities balance ($4.7 billion) and free cash flow will help fund future repurchases and allow the firm flexibility on future acquisitions. Most maturities for Biogen’s $7.3 billion in long-term debt are well into the future, with only $1 billion in debt due before 2025. Historically, Biogen has focused on returning excess cash to shareholders via buybacks, but its limited acquisition and collaboration record is strong and more tuck-in acquisitions going forward. Of the $15 billion in free cash flow generated in 2006-15, Biogen spent the vast majority of this cash on repurchases, with an average repurchase price over 2006-15 of $87 per share.

Bulls Say’s

  • Biogen leads the $20 billion global MS market with Avonex, Plegridy, Tysabri, and Tecfidera, and the launch of Vumerity partly protects Tecfidera sales from generic headwinds in the U.S. 
  • Biogen receives royalties and profit share from Roche on MS drug Ocrevus and cancer therapies Rituxan and Gazyva, boosting Biogen’s profitability. 
  • Biogen’s neurology portfolio outside of MS, including Spinraza in SMA, should help diversify revenue and boost sales growth.

Company Profile 

Biogen and Idec merged in 2003, combining forces to market Biogen’s multiple sclerosis drug Avonex and Idec’s cancer drug Rituxan. Today, Rituxan and next-generation antibody Gazyva are marketed via a collaboration with Roche. Biogen also markets novel MS drugs Plegridy, Tysabri, Tecfidera, and Vumerity. In Japan, Biogen’s MS portfolio is co-promoted by Eisai. Hemophilia therapies Eloctate and Alprolix (partnered with SOBI) were spun off as part of Bioverativ in 2017. Biogen has several drug candidates in phase 3 trials in neurology and neurodegenerative diseases and has launched Spinraza with partner Ionis. Aduhelm was approved as the firm’s first Alzheimer’s disease therapy in June 2021.

 (Source: MorningStar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice. The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do, business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities. Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and is not liable for any unintentional errors in the document. The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Global stocks Shares

American Express does have more reliance on spending patterns in this industry than its other card issuing peers

Business Strategy & Outlook

American Express has enjoyed a strong start to 2022 as the company’s payment volume benefited from a recovery in travel and entertainment spending (roughly 30% of pre-pandemic billings) as pandemic fears faded. American Express generates more than 80% of its revenue through noninterest income, with its largest source of revenue being the discount rate charged to merchants when they accept payment from one of its cardholders. This means that a recovery in travel and entertainment spending has a direct impact on the company’s revenue. Consumer travel has rebounded strongly, but the impact on business travel could be longer lasting as companies reassess their travel needs. 

While a long-term impairment of business travel would affect American Express, the overall impact would be manageable as the company is not as dependent on this segment as it once was. Another point of concern going forward in 2022 is the impact that rising fuel prices and high inflation will have on travel demand. So far travel spending has remained resilient, despite higher prices, but this will be a point to monitor given that American Express does have more reliance on spending patterns in this industry than its other card issuing peers. 

That said, note that non-travel spending on American Express’ cards is well above 2019 levels, as the firm benefits from a larger cardholder base and strong consumer engagement with its cards. Also, the company should see higher fee income as the $695 annual fee for its premium Platinum cards becomes effective for existing cardholders, providing additional tailwinds to the company in 2022. The company’s greatest strength remains its existing cardholder base of high-spending individuals and small businesses. The high average spending rate on American Express’ cards makes its cardholders attractive to merchants, and the company has been able to form valuable partnerships in exchange for access to these cardholders. This will continue as American Express’ position in the premium credit card market remains strong.

Financial Strengths

American Express has a strong financial position with a well-positioned balance sheet and a credit card portfolio that historically has had lower credit risk than its peers. At the end of March 2022, the company had a common equity Tier 1 capital ratio of 10.4%, in line with its long-term target. While American Express’ common equity Tier 1 ratio is well below its 2021 peak–a consequence of returning $9 billion in capital to shareholders during 2021– this is a sufficient level, particularly as the company has historically had credit losses well below those of peers. While the project net charge-offs to rise in 2022 and 2023, American Express’ balance sheet should be well equipped to handle higher credit costs.

Bulls Say

  • American Express operates as a closed-loop network for the cards that it issues. This allows it to capture more of the economic profit of a single credit card payment than other credit card issuers. 
  • American Express’ strong position with small businesses should help it win additional B2B payment volume as the company seeks to expand its offerings in the space. 
  • Non-T&E spending on American Express’ cards has already recovered to pre-pandemic levels, showing that cardholders remain engaged with its products even with limited opportunities to travel.

Company Description

American Express is a global financial institution, operating in about 130 countries, that provides consumers and businesses charge and credit card payment products. The company also operates a highly profitable merchant payment network. Since 2018, it has operated in three segments: global consumer services, global commercial services, and global merchant and network services. In addition to payment products, the company’s commercial business offers expense management tools, consulting services, and business loans.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Global stocks

Alphabet dominates the online search market with 80%-plus global share for Google

Business Strategy & Outlook

Alphabet dominates the online search market with 80%-plus global share for Google, via which it generates strong revenue growth and cash flow. The continuing growth in the firm’s cash flow, as Google will maintain its leadership in search. YouTube contributes more to the firm’s top and bottom lines, and the investments of some of that cash in moonshots as attractive. Whether they will generate positive returns remains to be seen, but they do present significant upside. Google’s ecosystem strengthens as its products are adopted by more users, making its online advertising services more attractive to advertisers and publishers and resulting in increased online ad revenue, which will continue to grow at double-digit rates after the pandemic and during the next five years. The firm utilizes technological innovation to improve the user experience in nearly all its Google offerings, while making the sale and purchase of ads efficient for publishers and advertisers. 

Adoption and usage of mobile devices has been increasing. The online advertising market has taken notice and is following its target audience onto the mobile platform. Google partakes in this on the back of its Android mobile operating system’s growing market share, helping it drive revenue growth and maintain its leadership in the space. Among the firm’s investment areas, it is particularly applauding the efforts to gain a stronger foothold in the fast-growing public cloud market. Google has quickly leveraged the technological expertise it applied to creating and maintaining its private cloud platform to increase its market share in this space, driving additional revenue growth and creating more operating leverage, which will continue. Most of Alphabet’s more futuristic projects are not yet generating revenue, but the upside is attractive if they succeed, as the firm is targeting newer markets. Alphabet’s autonomous car technology business, Waymo, is a good example: Based on various studies, it may tap into a market valued in the tens of billions of dollars within the next 10-15 years.

Financial Strengths

Alphabet has a very strong balance sheet with cash and cash equivalents of nearly $140 billion and total debt of nearly $15 billion at the end of 2021. The company also has a $4 billion revolver with no outstanding balance. Over 60% of the company’s cash and cash equivalents is held outside the U.S. The company generated $92 billion cash from operations in 2021, up 41% from 2020. The cash from operations to grow 17% annually through 2026. While continuing strong top-line growth, the firm continues to invest in innovation. Alphabet’s free cash flow to equity/gross revenue ratio averaged 23% over the past three years, which indicates strong operational and financial health. A five-year model average FCFE/sales ratio of 26% through 2026.

Bulls Say

  • As the number of online users and usage increase, so will digital ad spending, of which Google will remain one of the main beneficiaries. 
  • Android’s dominant global market share of smartphones leaves Google well positioned to continue generating top-line growth as search traffic shifts from desktop to mobile. 
  • The significant cash generated from the Google search business allows Alphabet to remain focused on innovation and the long-term growth opportunities that new areas present.

Company Description

Alphabet is a holding company. Internet media giant Google is a wholly owned subsidiary. Google generates 99% of Alphabet revenue, of which more than 85% is from online ads. Google’s other revenue is from sales of apps and content on Google Play and YouTube, as well as cloud service fees and other licensing revenue. Sales of hardware such as Chromebooks, the Pixel smartphone, and smart home products, which include Nest and Google Home, also contribute to other revenue. Alphabet’s moonshot investments are in its other bets segment, where it bets on technology to enhance health (Verily), faster internet access to homes (Google Fiber), self-driving cars (Waymo), and more. Alphabet’s operating margin has been 25%-30%, with Google at 30% and other bets operating at a loss.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.