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Despite wobbles at the top, Bapcor’s core is expected to be positive

Business Strategy and Outlook:

Bapcor’s narrow economic moat is contingent not on the CEO, but rather its scale. Bapcor’s scale allows not only additional buying power, but also the ability to source an extensive range of inventory (over 500,000 SKUs, many of these slow-moving, for over 20,000 different vehicle types) and the flexibility to efficiently allocate inventory between stores. Smaller players, lacking this scale, will be unable to replicate Bapcor’s low cost position. 

Bapcor’s trade network’s extensive reach also means Bapcor is able to provide parts to more customers in a timelier manner than smaller competitors, often within the hour, even for slow-moving SKUs. Bapcor’s trade customers consist of principally chain and independent mechanic workshops. These businesses are relatively price inelastic, as costs are passed through to the end consumer, and these businesses instead value parts availability and convenience, allowing service bays to turn over quickly. The number of registered vehicles in Australia will grow at low single digits over the next decade, marginally outpacing population growth. There are currently more than 19 million passenger vehicles in Australia, with an average age of over 10 years, and more than 14 million older than five years– squarely in Bapcor’s target market.

Financial Strength:

While it is expected that the near-term earnings momentum may slow down, analysts anchor on the firm’s long-term fundamentals and defensive earnings. The dividend yield generated by the firm is also substantial.

The financial outlook for the firm remains unchanged. Bapcor has benefitted from elevated government stimulus and pent-up demand, boosting fiscal 2021 sales as consumers opt to maintain and improve their existing cars rather than upgrade to newer vehicles. Australian retail sales were the standout in fiscal 2021, with sales from the Autobarn and Autopro network up 26% compared with fiscal 2020. It is expected that much of the growth was discretionary, rather than maintenance expenditure–retail sales outperformed 16% sales growth in Bapcor’s maintenance focussed trade business.

Company Profile:

Bapcor is one of the largest automotive spare parts and accessories businesses in Australia and New Zealand. The firm principally distributes automotive spare parts and accessories to independent and chain mechanic workshops in Australia and New Zealand through Burson-branded stores. Bapcor also operates a retail automotive spare parts and accessories business in Australia, catering to the DIY customer, under the AutoPro and Autobarn brands. The specialist wholesale business is a brand owner and wholesaler of specialised parts.

(Source: Morningstar)

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