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SAP reported solid 2Q21 result with revenue of €6.7bn

Investment Thesis :

  • Leading market share positions in on-premise enterprise resources planning (ERP) and on-premise customer relationship management (CRM) markets with customers in over 180 countries and strong brand awareness. 
  • The market is undervaluing SAP’s CRM business (relative to its peer group such as Salesforce.com).
  • Support revenues and Cloud subscriptions provide recurring revenue, which gives SAP a defensive profile. 
  •  Competent management team. 
  •  Strong operating and free cash flow generation with attractive dividend policy (payout ratio of at least 40%)

Key Risks

  • The Slower take-up for HANA and S/4HANA. 
  • Deteriorating sentiment if the economy and IT spending weakens. 
  • Market share loss in software revenue driven by cloud migration. 
  •  Aggressive M&A with risk of overpaying. 
  • Additional opex spending dampening margin expansion. 
  •  Key-man risk due to management changes. 
  • Competition from other established players like Microsoft, Salesforce.com and Oracle

Key highlights of FY 2021

Ongoing momentum in the business saw management slightly raised the bottom end of their previous guidance, which may have disappointed the market (i.e. investors may have been expecting a bigger bump up). Management’s 2021 outlook (non-IFRS @ CC): Cloud Revenue €9.3 – 9.5bn (prev. €9.2 – 9.5bn), up +15-18%; Cloud and Software Revenue €23.6 – 24.0bn (prev. €23.4 – 23.8bn), up +2-3%; and Operating Profit €7.95 – 8.25bn (prev. €7.8 – 8.2bn), flat to -4%. Management reiterated their operating cash flow guidance of approx. €6.0bn and FCF above €4.5bn.

2Q21 results highlights : Relative to the pcp: 

  • Total group revenue of €6.7bn was up +3% (in CC terms), driven by Cloud up +17%, Software licenses and support down -2% (Software Licenses down -13%, Software Support up +1%), Cloud and Software up +5% and Services down -7%. SaaS/PaaS cloud revenue (excluding Intelligent Spend) was up+25% (CC). Software Licenses were down -13% (CC) as expected and were ahead of expectations. Current Cloud Backlog (CCB) was up +20% (CC terms) to €7.8bn, with SAP S/4HANA CCB up +48% to €1.1bn.
  • From a region perspective, Asia Pacific & Japan revenue was solid (Cloud up +23% in CC; Cloud & Software up +6% in CC) while Americas (Cloud up +12% in CC; Cloud & Software up +5% in CC) and EMEA (Cloud up +23% in CC; Cloud & Software up +5% in CC) also saw good growth. Operating profit of €1.9bn was down -2% on pcp, but up +3% in CC terms. Operating margins were down -30bps to 28.8%

Company Profile:

SAP SE (SAP) is a global software and service provider headquartered in Walldorf, Germany, operating through two segments: Applications, Technology & Services segment, and the SAP Business Network segment. The Applications, Technology & Services segment is engaged in the sale of software licenses, subscriptions to its cloud applications, and related services and the SAP Business Network segment includes its cloud-based collaborative business networks and services relating to the SAP Business Network (including cloud applications, professional services and education services). SAP is the market leader in enterprise application software and also the leading analytics and business intelligence company, with the Company reporting that more than 77% of all transaction revenue globally touches an SAP system.

(Source: Banyantree)

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