Categories
Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

Antero Resources Corp

The most material change was to the natural gas liquids pricing, as not only has natural gas liquids pricing increased materially recently, but Antero’s ability to extract wider differentials has improved due to tighter end markets.

The revised guidance now shifts to a midpoint of $0.20 per million cubic feet, or mcf, from an earlier midpoint of $0.15 per mcf.

Antero continues to generate substantial free cash flow in this environment. Net debt fell by over $150 million during the quarter, due in part to free cash flow of $77 million.

Total debt now stands at $2.4 billion, and leverage at a very reasonable 1.7 times. Antero’s expectations regarding being below $2 billion in absolute debt and 1 times leverage in 2022 align with our model, and are reasonable.

Company Profile

Antero Resources, based in Denver, engages in the exploration for and production of natural gas and natural gas liquids in the United States and Canada. At the end of 2020, the company reported proven reserves of 17.6 trillion cubic feet of natural gas equivalent. Production averaged approximately 3,578 million cubic feet of equivalent a day in 2020 at a ratio of 33% liquids and 67% natural gas.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Commodities

Fortescue sets a new record for exports and sets new goals for the future

Fortescue has broken an export record for the second year in a row, having delivered 178.2 million tonnes from Western Australia’s Pilbara region in fiscal 2020. The business stated on Thursday that it expects to have a triple trick of record years in fiscal 2022, with a goal of shipping up to 185 million tonnes.

Fortescue shares rose 2% to a new record high of $26.40 on Thursday morning, owing to the better-than-expected result and forward outlook.

The company’s remarkable operating performance indicates that it has taken advantage of a window of high iron ore prices generated by strong Chinese demand and inadequate supply from major competitors such as Rio Tinto and Vale.

Rio manager Jakob Stausholm admitted on Wednesday night that the team needed to improve as an operator and perform better in the future.

Iron ore benchmark prices hit a fresh high of $US233 per tonne in early May, and the commodity was still fetching $US201.25 per tonne on Wednesday evening, according to price supplier S&P Global Platts.

Fortescue announced last year that it would spend a maximum of $US3.4 billion on growth projects, with a slide presentation from August 2020 implying that growth spending would be closer to $US1 billion in fiscal 2022.

If spending by its clean energy subsidiary Fortescue Future Industries (FFI) is added, the total could reach $US3.8 billion. FFI will invest between $US400 million and $US600 million in the coming year, according to Fortescue.

Aside from increased expansion spending, Fortescue predicted that unit expenses in the coming year might be 11% higher than in fiscal 2021.

(Source: Fact Set)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

With the latest acquisition, WEC Energy Group’s Renewable Energy Portfolio Continues to Expand

The facility has long-term off take contracts for 100% of energy produced from investment-grade counterparties. The company’s infrastructure investment now comprises eight projects totaling more than 1.5 gig watts of generation.

The transaction is a continuation of WEC Energy’s plan to build out its renewable energy infrastructure portfolio, advantageously using its strong balance sheet to lock in returns higher than its regulated business. Management has targeted 8% unleveraged internal rates of return, which we view as attainable.

We continue to think the infrastructure investments, which have higher returns than in WEC’s regulated business with regulated utility type risks, are a positive for investors. The company has set aside $1.5 billion in its five-year capital investment program for renewable energy investments, nearly doubling the company’s current $2.2 billion portfolio. Capital investments drive our 6.5% earnings growth expectations, the upper end of management’s 5% to 7% guidance range. The company’s total capital investment plan is $16.1 billion over the next five years.

Management has previously increased its allocation to renewable energy infrastructure projects, and we wouldn’t be surprised if the company allocates additional resources to infrastructure investments. The Sapphire Sky Wind Energy investment represents nearly 30% of WEC’s five-year commitment to renewable energy infrastructure.

Company Profile

WEC Energy Group’s electric and gas utility businesses serve electric and gas customers in its Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin service territories. The company also owns a 60% stake in American Transmission Co. WEC’s asset mix is approximately 51% electric generation and distribution, 34% gas distribution, 13% electric transmission, and 2% unregulated renewable generation.

 (Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

Woodside Remains a Standout Energy Investment at the Right Price

Woodside is unique among Australian energy companies in that it has successfully managed the development of LNG projects for more than 25 years–unparalleled domestic experience at a complicated and expensive task. Adding to Woodside’s competitive advantages are the long-term 20-year off-take agreements with the who’s who of Asia’s blue chip energy utilities, such as Tokyo Electric, Kansai Electric, Chubu Electric, and Osaka Gas. These help ensure sufficient project financing during development and should bring stability to Woodside’s cash flows once projects are complete. Woodside also enjoys first-mover advantages. The NWS/JV has invested more than AUD 27 billion since the 1980s, building infrastructure at a fraction of the cost of today’s developments.

Woodside’s development pipeline is deep, enabling it to leverage the tried and trusted project-delivery platform as a template for other world-class gas accumulations off the north-west coast of Australia. Woodside is well suited to the development challenge. With extensive experience, it remains a stand-out energy investment at the right price. Gas is the fastest growing primary energy market behind coal, and the seaborne-traded LNG portion of that gas market grows faster still. China is building several import terminals, and so demand is likely to pick up, helping to move LNG pricing toward oil parity on an energy-equivalent basis.

Financial Strength

Balance sheet strength remains a key appeal of Woodside. The company’s net debt/EBITDA of just 0.9 affords it the luxury of seriously pursuing growth counter cyclically, where others necessarily focus on survival alone. Woodside’s net debt increased 60% to USD 2.6 billion at December 2020 versus one year prior, though for still modest 17% leverage (ND/ND+E). And despite expansionary capital expenditure programs, strong cash flows and a healthy balance sheet should regardless support ongoing dividend payments. We project peak net debt of around USD 9.7 billion in 2026, but net debt/EBITDA of just 1.8, and falling to sub-1.0 by 2030. This includes a sustained 80% payout ratio and a five-year average dividend of AUD 1.40 per share or 5.5% fully franked yield at the current share price. Expansionary expenditure on the Scarborough/Pluto T2 project, and potentially later on the Browse project, could see first expanded production in 2025. We model Woodside’s share of the combined capital cost at circa USD 14.0 billion, relatively the most capital-onerous of all four E&P companies, but driving a 25% increase in equity production to 125 mmboe, by 2026, and these are long-life additions.

Bull Says

  • Woodside is a beneficiary of continued increase in demand for energy. Behind coal, gas has been the fastest-growing primary energy segment globally. Woodside is favorably located on Asia’s doorstep.
  • Woodside’s cash flow base is comparatively diversified, with LNG making it less susceptible to the vagaries of pure oil producers. Gas is a primary component of Asian base-load power generation.
  • Gas has around half the carbon intensity of coal and it stands to gain market share in the generation segment and elsewhere if carbon taxes are instituted, as some predict.

Company Profile

Incorporated in 1954 and named after the small Victorian town of Woodside, Woodside’s early exploration focus moved from Victoria’s Gippsland Basin to Western Australia’s Carnarvon Basin. First LNG production from the North West Shelf came in 1984. BHP Billiton and Shell each had 40% shareholdings before BHP sold out in 1994 and Shell sold down to 34%. In 2010, Shell further decreased its shareholding to 24%. Woodside has the potential to become the most LNG-leveraged company globally.

(Source: Factset)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

Oil Futures Snap 4-day Winning Streak, Settle Marginally Lower

In other coronavirus news, Russia’s overall virus cases have topped 6 million, and Turkey’s infections have tripled since earlier this month.

China, the world’s largest petroleum importer, reported 76 new COVID-19 cases, the most since the end of January, amid a surge of local illnesses in Nanjing, in eastern China.

Floods and a typhoon have wreaked havoc on China’s central and eastern regions.

With robust demand in the United States and forecasts of restricted supply underpinning prices, investors are now looking for direction from the Federal Reserve meeting and reports on US oil inventories.

(Source: Factset)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

DTE Energy: Spin-Off of DT Midstream Completes & the FVE Adjusted To Reflect Separation

We expect high-single-digit growth in utility earnings over the next five years, driven in large part by grid investment at DTE Electric and replacing aging infrastructure at DTE Gas. DTE Electric is also investing heavily in gas power generation and renewable energy to replace its aging coal fleet. We estimate DTE will invest $18.5 billion at its utilities during the next five years in a Michigan regulatory framework that is constructive for investors.

We are less bullish about the earnings contribution from the power and industrial segment as reduced emissions fuel, or REF, earnings decline from the expiration of tax credits. However, we believe new industrial cogeneration projects and renewable natural gas from landfill projects should, for the most part, offset the REF decline. We estimate flat earnings will reduce the segment’s contribution to consolidated earnings from almost 13% in 2021, following the separation of DTM, to less than 10% by 2025.

Financial Strength

DTE’s book debt/capital ratio rose to 61% at 2020 year-end, a significant increase from five years ago when it averaged in the low-50% range. A stable interest coverage ratio during the next five years is expected, with EBITDA/ interest expense over 4 times. On June 24, DTE declared a $0.825 per-share quarterly dividend ($3.30 per-share annualized) on its common stock payable on Oct. 15, 2021, for shareholders of record at the close on Sept. 20, 2021. DTE management has indicated that the DTE dividend plus the DT Midstream dividend will total $4.70-$4.80 per-share annualized starting in the third quarter of 2021. The midpoint of this guidance would represent a 9.4% increase over the previous DTE dividend before the separation of DTM. The current    annual DTE dividend of $3.30 per share represents a payout ratio of approximately 60% on our 2021 EPS estimate of $5.51

Bull Says

  • Shareholders will receive a dividend increase when the DTE Energy and DT Midstream dividend are combined. It is estimated a 9.4% combined dividend increase, followed by 6% annual increases for DTE from 2022 to 2025.
  • Michigan’s aging utility infrastructure needs investment, which will mean regulated growth opportunities for DTE.
  • Over the past 10 years, Michigan regulation has been constructive for shareholders and is expected to remain favorable.

Company Profile

DTE Energy owns two regulated utilities in Michigan. DTE Electric serves approximately 2.2 million customers in southeastern Michigan including Detroit. DTE Gas serves 1.3 million customers throughout the state. In addition, DTE has nonutility businesses and investments including energy marketing and trading, renewable natural gas facilities, and on-site industrial energy projects.

(Source: Factset)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

A look at the most recent commodity expert opinions and forecasts: forecast for resources; coal and iron ore

China’s demand for commodities is expected to weaken in the second half of 2021, according to analysts, but this will be largely offset by stronger demand outside of China and the global shift to a low-carbon economy.

The development of the more virulent Delta strain of coronavirus has hampered mobility and growth forecasts, putting pressure on commodities in recent weeks. However, central banks have signalling more aggressive policy positions, with several announcing a reduction in bond purchases.

The vigourous drive in China to put inflationary pressure on industrial metals prices, such as steel, is a third issue. After the run-up that brought copper and iron ore prices to all-time highs, the situation in the second half will be more unpredictable.

Coal

Spot prices for coking (metallurgical) coal have risen since the start of May, but the CBA analysts believe a peak is building, as some steel product margins are now declining.

However, thermal coal prices have remained high due to supply concerns and seasonal demand from a warmer-than-usual summer in North Asia. Thermal coal prices have climbed thrice since the commencement of the pandemic, according to Longview Economics.

Over 2020, China’s coal power capacity increased by 3%, while additions outside of China totalled just 9GW and retirements were 25GW. While a result, China’s coal capacity continues to expand even as the rest of the world cuts back.

Iron Ore

China’s economic report for June is unlikely to allay fears of slowing growth. As a result, ANZ Bank analysts expect that downward pressure on iron ore prices will intensify.

Despite the fact that the market remains tight, a severe correction is unlikely. While demand outside of China may be able to compensate for some of the downturn, iron ore prices are projected to fall in the second half, albeit the decline will be limited.

Source: Factset

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

Oil Prices Little Changed After Strong Overnight Gains

After a 2.3 percent increase the previous session, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures were down 0.1 percent at $71.86.
After OPEC and allied nations signed a tentative deal to raise oil output, oil futures fell roughly 7% on Monday, owing to fears about the spread of the COVId-19 delta variant and concerns about oversupply.
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported earlier this week that gasoline stockpiles fell by 100,000 barrels last week, while distillate stockpiles fell by 1.3 million barrels.
The EIA report also showed a drop in crude stockpiles at the storage hub in Cushing, Oklahoma, to the lowest level in about seven months.

(Source: RTT News)
General Advice Warning
Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

Energy continues to be the leading sector in the Q2

Even with the rally year to date, we have energy as fairly valued, with the median stock trading at a price/fair value ratio of 1. Opportunities exist across all segments, particularly services and integrated, which trade at a 29% and 10% discount to intrinsic value, respectively. Exploration and production stocks have surged in the last three months, and on average the group is 8% overvalued (though a handful of 4-star stocks are still underappreciated, in our view).

The ongoing mass rollouts of COVID-19 vaccinations in developed markets will be the main catalyst for year-on-year demand growth of 5.1 million barrels per day in 2021. Our updated demand estimates for 2021 and 2022 are 96.2 mmb/d and 100.4 mmb/d, respectively. While optimistic about demand improvements, producers remain hesitant on the supply end.

During its June 1 meeting, OPEC+ confirmed it will go ahead with modest volume increases of 350 and 450 mb/d in June and July, respectively (which means the group will still be withholding at least 2 mmb/d). And U.S. shale drillers—which have historically acted as swing producers, like OPEC—have steadfastly refused to increase capital budgets to take advantage of higher oil prices, preferring to prioritize free cash flows and distributions to shareholders.

As a result, we now anticipate global demand will outpace supply this year by 1.0 mmb/d. These dynamics have pushed oil prices to what we consider frothy levels, with the West Texas Intermediate benchmark currently 33% higher than our $55/bbl midcycle forecast. Without an abrupt change in strategy from OPEC or the U.S. shale industry, the oil markets will remain tight this year, and short prices could climb even higher.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning
Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

Drop in Crude Stockpiles is Causing Oil Future to Settle Higher

August West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures closed at $72.94 a barrel, up $0.74 or nearly 1%.

Brent crude futures were trading at $74.19 a barrel, up $0.76 or 1.03 percent.

Crude stocks in the United States declined by 6.866 million barrels last week, significantly more than the predicted reduction of 4.03 million barrels, according to data issued by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) this morning.

Distillate stockpiles surged by 1.616 million barrels last week, much exceeding the 171,000 barrels projected gain, while gasoline inventories fell by over 6 million barrels, about three times the predicted reduction.

According to a report released late Wednesday by the American Petroleum Institute (API), oil stocks in the United States decreased by 8.0 million barrels last week.

Since demand fell during the corona virus outbreak, OPEC+ has been limiting supply for more than a year. Investors are now concerned that the lack of a new supply agreement will force big oil producers to ramp up output much more quickly.

(Source: Rtt News)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.