Category: Commodities

A commodity market is a physical or virtual marketplace for buying, selling, and trading raw or primary products. There are currently about 50 major commodity markets worldwide that facilitate trade in approximately 100 primary commodities. commodities can be invested in numerous ways. An investor can purchase stock in corporations whose business relies on commodities prices or purchase mutual funds, index funds, or exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that have a focus on commodities related companies.

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Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

Entergy’s Service Area Significantly Affected by Hurricane Ida

narrow moat ratings after Category 4 Hurricane Ida impacted significant portions of Entergy’s service area, including the New Orleans area. On Aug. 29, Entergy disclosed that Hurricane Ida caused all eight transmission lines that provide power to New Orleans to fail. This subsequently caused a load imbalance causing all generation to cease operations. 

While it is too early to estimate any financial impact from Hurricane Ida, the storm has drawn comparisons to Hurricane Katrina, the last Category 4 hurricane to impact the area. The combination of damage from Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita, which struck the region shortly after Katrina, led to $1.5 billion total restoration costs for the repair of Entergy’s electric and gas facilities. This excluded lost revenue due to customer outages and Entergy’s inability to recover fixed costs through base rates.

Near-term liquidity constraints following Katrina and Rita led Entergy’s subsidiary, Entergy New Orleans, to file voluntary Chapter 11 bankruptcy. The subsidiary exited bankruptcy in May 2007 and eventually recovered most of the restoration costs through insurance proceeds and regulatory approval of storm restoration cost securitization, which was authorized by state law.

Company’s Future outlook

Entergy’s last traded price was 111.69 USD, whereas its fair value estimate is 110.00 USD, which makes it an overvalued stock. Entergy New Orleans contributed $49 million of Entergy’s $1.1 billion consolidated net income in 2020.  It is estimated that every $250 million of disallowed restoration costs reduces fair value estimate $1 per share. Entergy New Orleans had roughly $1 billion in total rate base at year-end 2020, representing approximately 3.5% of Entergy’s $28 billion rate base. Hurricane Ida increases Entergy’s regulatory risk as regulators likely will scrutinize the company’s storm response and restoration costs. 

Company Profile

Entergy is an integrated utility with approximately 22 gig watts of regulated utility-owned power generation capacity. It has shrunk its merchant generation business and plans to retire its remaining operating merchant nuclear unit in Michigan in 2022. Its five regulated integrated utilities generate and distribute electricity to about 3 million customers in Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

Worley Delivers as-Expected Fiscal Second-Half Recovery. No Change to AUD 12.00 FVE.

Worley shares are hovering at just over AUD 11.00 and are currently only somewhat undervalued. Worley’s last traded price was 11.06 AUD, whereas its fair value estimate is 12 AUD, which makes it an undervalued stock. Worley paid out a final dividend of AUD 25 cents bringing the full fiscal year to better than expected AUD 50 cents, in line with fiscal 2020 thanks to a higher 94% payout ratio.

Underlying EBITDA fell 25% to AUD 649 million, marginally ahead of the expectations. And net operating cash flow fell by 24% to AUD 533 million. The robust cash performance facilitated a 10% reduction in net debt to AUD 1.24 billion. Worley is comfortably leveraged at 18% and 1.9 net debt/EBITDA at end fiscal 2021, that solid outcome delivered in a COVID-19-impacted period. The debt Worley does have is a hangover from its AUD 4.6 billion ECR takeover. 

Worley’s business has stabilized over the second half of fiscal 2021 including the work backlog increasing by 6% to AUD 14.3 billion at end June 2021 versus AUD 13.5 billion at end December 2020. Underlying fiscal second half EBITDA of AUD 386 million was nearly 50% ahead of the fiscal first half. And second-half EBITDA margin of 9.0% bettered the first half’s 5.9% by a considerable gap.

Company’s Future Outlook

It is forecasted AUD 45 cents for the full year, the higher payout sending a strong signal of the board’s confidence in the outlook. The full-year payout equates to an unfranked 4.5% yield at the current share price. Worley is expecting an improved fiscal 2022. However, different sectors and regions will recover at different rates. The company is starting to see activity levels increase with key awards in the early phases.

Company Profile

Worley is a leading global provider of professional services, such as engineering, procurement, and construction management, to the oil, gas, mining, power, and infrastructure sectors. Purchase of Jacobs ECR in April 2019 reduced revenue contribution from hydrocarbons to just over 50%, from a prior 75%-80% position. Metals and mining contributes 23% and infrastructure and chemicals the balance. Worley has a global presence with about 59,000 staff in more than 50 countries. It has a strong presence in many developing economies, including Africa.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

South32 Profits Rebound due to Stronger Commodity Prices in FY21

with adjusted net profit after tax up about 150% to USD 489 million. Adjusted EBIT nearly doubled to USD 844 million from USD 446 million, thanks to higher commodity prices, and was in line with the expectations. The company did a creditable job at offsetting inflationary pressures, primarily through cost reductions and efficiencies. 

Dividends surprised on the upside, with South32 declaring a USD 3.5 cent final and USD 2.0 cent special, bringing the full year payout to USD 6.9 cents fully franked, ahead of our USD 6.0 cent forecast. Given South32 possessed about USD 400 million net cash at the end of June, the cash returned to shareholders seems to be worthy use of funds.. In addition, the outlook for commodity prices is probably looking better for the company in fiscal 2022.

Metallurgical coal has been one of the strongest performers of late, the price doubling in less than six months. At the divisional level, Cannington had a much better year, reflecting strong production and higher prices, with EBIT more than tripling to USD 350 million.

Company’s Future Outlook

South32 has increased the size of its ongoing on market share buyback by USD 120 million, with about USD 250 million remaining to be returned.  Along with share repurchases, South32 continues to make incremental portfolio improvements. A more focused and streamlined portfolio should reduce South32’s expenditure requirements and allow capital to be directed to higher returning opportunities. Like many diversified mining peers, South32 is positioning itself for a carbon constrained world and expects the majority of its commodities to do better under that constraint, notably aluminium for light-weighting and nickel for batteries.  The recent rebound in the coking coal price may provide an opportunity, which could be a good option.

Company Profile

South32 was born of the demerger of noncore assets from BHP in 2015. South32 comprises BHP’s former aluminium and manganese businesses and the South African energy coal and New South Wales metallurgical coal businesses. It also owns the Cannington silver/lead/zinc mine in northwest Queensland and the Cerro Matoso nickel mine in Colombia. Cannington silver mine and manganese operations deliver high returns but have relatively short reserve life. The company acquired Arizona Mining, which brings with it the high-grade and likely low-cost Hermosa deposit in the U.S.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Oil Search Delivers Robust First-Half Cash Flows

The PNG oil and gas producer reported first-half 2021 underlying net profit after tax, up 460% to USD 139 million. Lower-than-expected operating costs were the driver of outperformance. 

Net operating cash flow increased 52% to USD 308 million. This allowed group net debt to fall USD 254 million in the first half to USD 2.10 billion, excluding operating leases. Leverage (ND/(ND+E)) was 27% with annualized first-half net debt/EBITDA still somewhat elevated at 2.3, though likely to improve given stronger second-half LNG prices.

Oil Search declared an interim USD 3.30 cent dividend, up from zero in the previous corresponding period and ahead Oil Search maintained all 2021 guidance including production of 25.5-28.5 mmboe, unit production costs of USD 10.50-11.50 per boe, and investment expenditure of USD 250 million-350 million. The current AUD 6.10 Santos share price implies an Oil Search value of AUD 3.83 and Oil Search shares trade close to that mark. 

Company’s Future Outlook

Oil Search shareholders will hope to achieve the ultimate value potential through Santos shares. It is forecasted a 70% increase in group production to 46 mmboe by late this decade, capturing PNG LNG expansion and the Papua LNG projects, but not yet inclusive of Alaska North Slope’s oil, pending Pikka front-end engineering and design, or FEED, outcome. This, regardless, drives an 11.8% 10-year group EBITDA CAGR to USD 1.85 billion by 2030, from a coronavirus-affected 2020 launch year.

Company Profile

Oil Search was founded in 1929 and operates all of Papua New Guinea’s oilfields. The PNG government holds a 10% interest. Oil Search had successfully run PNG oil fields since assuming operatorship from ExxonMobil in 2003. However, the tyranny of distance saw the large and high-quality gas fields largely stranded until 2014. The PNG LNG project is the first step to monetize those vast gas resources, again under the direction of ExxonMobil. First-stage construction is complete, with potential for expansion from two trains to five.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Edison remains in Top Utilities Sector & Win Regulatory Support

and operating challenges for utilities like Edison International. But California’s aggressive clean energy goals also offer Edison more growth opportunities than most utilities. Edison’s plans for $5 billion of annual capital investment and good regulatory support will generate 6% annual earnings growth beyond 2021. But this growth trajectory could be lumpy as regulatory delays, wildfire issues, and California energy policy changes lead to shifts in spending and cost recovery. 

New equity issuances in 2019 and 2020 in part to fund its $2.4 billion contribution to the state wildfire insurance fund and a higher allowed equity structure in rates weighed on earnings the last two years. But Edison now has most of its financing in place to execute its large growth plan, which ultimately will drive earnings and dividend growth.

Growth opportunities at Southern California Edison address grid safety, renewable energy, electric vehicles, distributed generation, and energy storage. Wildfire safety investments alone could reach $4 billion during the next four years. In August, regulators approved nearly all of Edison’s 2021-23 investment plans. Ongoing regulatory proceedings will address wildfire-specific investments and Edison’s 2024 investment plan. 

Financial Strength

Edison’s credit metrics are well within investment-grade range. California wildfire legislation and recent regulatory rulings have removed the overhang that threatened Edison’s investment-grade ratings in early 2019. Edison has kept its balance sheet strong with substantial equity issuances since 2019. Edison issued $2.4 billion of new equity throughout 2019 at prices in line with our fair value estimate. This financing supported both its growth investments and half of its $2.4 billion contribution to the California wildfire insurance fund. The new equity in 2019 also allowed Southern California Edison to adjust its allowed capital structure to 52% equity from 48% equity for ratemaking purposes, leading to higher revenues and partially offsetting the earnings dilution. The board approved a $0.10 per share annualized increase, or 4%, for 2021, the same increase as it approved for 2020. 

Bull Says

  • With some $5 billion of planned annual investment during the next four years, it is projected 6% average annual average earnings growth in 2021-24.
  • Edison has raised its dividend from $1.35 annualized in 2013 to $2.65 in 2021, demonstrating management’s commitment to meeting and maintaining a 45%-55% target payout ratio on utility earnings.
  • California’s focus on renewable energy, energy storage, and distributed generation should bolster Edison’s investment opportunities in transmission and distribution upgrades for many years.

Company Profile

Edison International is the parent company of Southern California Edison, an electric utility that supplies power to 5 million customers in a 50,000-square-mile area of Southern California, excluding Los Angeles. Edison Energy owns interests in nonutility businesses that deal in energy-related products and services. In 2014, Edison International sold its wholesale generation subsidiary Edison Mission Energy out of bankruptcy to NRG Energy.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

Following strong first-half results, the Oil Search dividend has been reinstated.

Investment thesis

  • Positive trends in the sale of Alaskan equity interests.
  • Following the recent capital raising, the balance sheet is in good shape. More deleveraging will be beneficial as well.
  • Globally appealing assets with a favourable cost structure.
  • Although expensive, downside hedges to lower oil prices are a good thing in the event of a black swan event.
  • Possible M&A activity.
  • Rising oil and gas prices

Key Risks

The following are the key challenges to the investment thesis:

  • Global oil and gas markets are experiencing a supply and demand imbalance.
  • Lowering of oil and LNG prices.
  • Disruptions in production.
  • Execution risk associated with LNG expansion.
  • Adverse policy changes in PNG (the government is a major backer of the project).

Highlights of key FY21 results

  • Revenue of $667.7 million was up +7% as the oil and LNG markets recovered from the initial effects of Covid-19 (average oil and condensate realisation of $64.66 was up 80% over the pcp). Total production was 13.5 million metric tonnes, a -8 percent decrease from 14.5 million metric tonnes. 
  • EBITDAX of $488.8 million increased by 8%.
  • Core EBIT of $278.8 million increased by 88 percent. OSH is on track to achieve a 40% reduction in underlying operated opex by 2023. Free cash flow increased significantly to $284.3 million (up from $12.8 million in 1H20). 
  • OSH made a revenue of $139.0 million, a huge improvement over the -$266.2 million reported in 1H20. Given the LNG price lag to Brent, management expects solid operating cashflows to continue in 2H21.
  • Net debt fell -11 percent to $2,122.2 million. Gearing was reduced from 29.9 percent to 27.2 percent in the pcp. Under financial covenants, OSH has significant headroom, according to management. 
  • The Board declared an interim dividend of US3.3 cents per share, representing a payout of 49 percent of NPAT and consistent with OSH’s dividend policy of a target payout ratio of 35 to 50 percent of core NPAT.

Company Description  

Oil Search Limited (OSH) explores for and produces gas and oil through operations in Papua New Guinea. The company’s activities are located in the Papuan Highlands which include Kutubu, Hides, and Gobe oil and gas projects.   

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

Ampol in Proposed Merger With Z Energy

Annual refining capacity fell by half to 6.0 billion litres, about one third of company marketed volumes, when Kurnell closed. Kurnell refinery was shut in 2014 because of operational issues and unfavourable demand for the product mix. It was built to produce petrol, but the market has moved increasingly to diesel with advancing engine technology. Strong growth in transport fuels reflects favourable market attributes. Pandemics notwithstanding, volumes in the Australian liquid fuels market grow at close to growth rates in gross domestic product, with solid increases in diesel and jet fuel consumption offsetting a slow decline in petrol.

Ampol’s extensive network and comprehensive product offerings provide some competitive advantage. The closure of refining sees Ampol’s business rest largely on fuel distribution. In this space, it wrestles with expert competition in BP, Shell, and Mobil. Potential long-term threats include substitution of diesel for alternative fuels such as liquid natural gas, or LNG, and electricity. In the case of LNG in particular, Ampol is likely to participate in any shift via its logistics network and filling stations. Ampol maintains a market-leading 35% share of all transport fuels sold. Ampol substantially rests on its competitive supply chain now that Kurnell has been converted into an import terminal.

Financial Strength 

Ampol is proposing an NZD 3.78 per share cash offer for Z Energy via scheme of arrangement. Ampol intends to fund the acquisition in accordance with its existing capital allocation framework, including an adjusted net debt/EBITDA target of 2.0-2.5 times. It says it will use new debt facilities, proceeds from any divestments, and an equity issuance in the order of AUD 600 million. Ampol may have to sell-down some NZ assets to meet NZ competition guidelines. This could include its Gull network.Z had NZD 608 million net debt at end March 2021, net debt/EBITDA of 2.67 quite high versus Ampol’s AUD 735 million at end June 2021, but this in the context of a low growth company focused on yield. Ampol’s standalone leverage is conservative at 18.6% and annualised first half net debt/EBITDA is just 0.8.

Our fair value estimate for Ampol by 9% to AUD 31.00. The increase is in accord with the terms of a proposed merger and our prior stand-alone fair value estimates. Merger and acquisition activity continues at a frenetic pace in the Australasian fossil fuel space, coronavirus fragility and carbon concerns marking some as prey. The latest is apparently the fourth in a series of nonbinding offers from Ampol, including at NZD 3.35, NZD 3.50 and NZD 3.60 along the way. And there is logic to a merger– Ampol and Z have very similar business models. 

Z Energy’s board wouldn’t have opened the books if the chance of a deal proceeding was low. At NZD 3.78 Ampol will be getting Z Energy at a material 33% discount to our NZD 5.60 standalone fair value. This accounts for the 9% Ampol fair value uplift. On a stand-alone basis, our AUD 28.50 stand-alone fair value estimate for Ampol is unchanged. Ampol intends to fund the acquisition in accordance with its existing capital allocation framework, including an adjusted net debt/EBITDA target of 2.0-2.5 times. It says it will use new debt facilities, proceeds from any divestments, and an equity issuance in the order of AUD 600 million.

Bulls Say’s

  • Group returns on invested capital improved materially with the closure of the high-cost Kurnell refinery and the
  • modernisation of Lytton refinery. Quarantining of refinery losses and redirection of free cash flow to marketing and distribution drove the improvement.
  • Dismantled refining leaves Ampol reliant on third parties for two thirds of its fuel requirement and removes an inbuilt hedge, albeit an unprofitable one in some prior years.
  • Ampol wrestles with formidable competition in BP, Shell, and Mobil in the distribution and retail sector.

Company Profile 

Ampol (nee Caltex) is the largest and only Australian-listed petroleum refiner and distributor, with operations in all states and territories. It was a major international brand of Chevron’s until that 50% owner sold out in 2015. Caltex transitioned to Ampol branding due to Chevron terminating its licence to use the Caltex brand in Australia. Ampol has operated for more than 100 years. It owns and operates a refinery at Lytton in Brisbane, but closed Sydney’s Kurnell refinery to focus on the more profitable distribution/retail segment.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

Vipers updated Fair Value Estimate increased to $21

and the announced Swallowtail acquisition, the fair value estimate of the company increased to $21 per unit while maintaining its narrow moat rating. With second-quarter results, Viper boosted its 2021 production guidance by 2% at the midpoint to just over 26,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, mainly due to higher activity levels from third-party private operators versus public operators such as Diamondback.

After essentially halting acreage acquisitions in May 2020, Viper has returned to the M&A market with a large transaction. The deal is a $500 million cash and stock (55% stock, 45% cash) purchase of 2,302 net royalty acres in the Midland basin from Swallowtail Royalties, a private mineral rights firm where its acreage deals are financed by Blackstone funds. The price on a per acre basis is at over $200,000 per acre, roughly 80% higher than historical pricing and 40% higher than its last significant deal activity in May 2020.

Despite the high per-acre price, Viper has advantages, as 65% of the acres are operated by Diamondback with a net royalty rate of 3.6%. The value of the deal is demonstrated by the fact that Viper was able to offer a clear long-term growth trajectory for its Diamondback acres, substantially reducing uncertainty around future cash flows, but it wasn’t able to do the same for its non-Diamondback acres.

Company’s Future Outlook

The deal is expected to be completed by the early fourth quarter, and expected post-deal leverage will be about 2 times, which is considered reasonable. The Diamondback development plan is essentially minimal production today to 1,000 barrels of oil per day (bo/d) in 2022 to over 5000 bo/d by 2024. It is expected that this path to generate a solid amount of value for Viper.

Company Profile
Viper Energy Partners was formed by Diamondback Energy in 2014 to own mineral royalty interests in the Permian Basin. It is publicly traded Delaware limited partnership formed by Diamondback to own and acquire mineral and royalty interests in oil and natural gas properties primarily in the Permian Basin. Since May 10, 2018, the company has been treated as a corporation for U.S. federal income tax purposes. At the end of 2020, Viper owns 24350 net royalty acres that produced 26551 boe/d. Proved reserves are mostly oil, and at the end of 2019 stand at 99392 mboe.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning
Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

Newcrest Mining’s Strong Financial Performance For FY21

Investment Thesis 

• The present share price is trading at a more than 10% discount to our equal weighted (DCF, PE-Multiple, EV / EBITDA) valuation of NCM.

• Among gold mining peers in Australia, NCM has one of the lowest cost bases.

• NCM has one of the lowest cost bases among gold mining peers in Australia. The sustained cost outs will lower the All-in Sustaining Cash Cost (AISC), subject to currency fluctuations (AUD).

• Commodity prices (gold and copper) surprise on the upside, owing to geopolitical worries.

• Leveraged to global monetary policy decisions and the USD, which we view appreciating against other currencies, notably the Australian dollar. 

• NCM has organic development options at Lihir, Cadia, and Golpu.

• NCM offers expansion opportunities at Havieron and Red Chris.

• Strong assets with a lengthy reserve life.

• A solid management team with significant mining expertise.

Key Risks

• Further weakening global macroeconomic conditions.

• A decrease in the group’s output profile.

• Reduced free cash flow means the company will fail its dividend projections.

• A worsening in the global supply and demand equilibrium.

• A decline in gold and copper prices.

• Production difficulties, execution risk, delay, or unscheduled mine shutdown.

• Negative fluctuations in the AUD/USD.

FY21 results summary

Actual earnings of $1,164 million climbed +55 percent year on year, owing to higher realised gold (up +17 percent year on year) and copper (up +42 percent year on year) prices, favourable fair value adjustments recognised on copper derivatives, and other factors, NCM’s investment in the Fruta del Norte finance facilities, and record copper production from Cadia, partially offset by lower gold sales volumes due to lower production (down -3.6 percent year on year), increased income tax expense as a result of the Company’s improved profitability, the unfavourable impact on operating costs (including depreciation) from the strengthening of the AUD against the USD, additional costs associated with COVID-19 measures ($70 million), higher treatment, refining, and transshipment costs and higher Price linked costs such as royalties. Record FCF of $1,104m was mainly due to to pcp, which was characterised by a net cash outflow of $1,291m relating to M&A growth investments, compared to a $21m outflow in the current period (FCF before M&A activity was $455m, +68% higher than pcp, with higher operating cash flows only partially offset by increased investment in major capital projects at Cadia, Increased production stripping activity at Lihir and Red Chris, as well as higher sustaining capital at all ongoing operations).

Company Description 

Newcrest Mining Limited (NCM)engages in the exploration, mine development, mine operation, and the sale of gold and gold/copper concentrates. It is also involved in the exploration of silver deposits. The company primarily owns and operates mines and projects located in Cadia and Telfer in Australia; Lihir based in Papua New Guinea; Gosowong based in Indonesia; Bonikro based in Cote dIvoire in West Africa.

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Murphy Using Windfall from High Oil Prices to Accelerate Deleveraging

spinning off its retail gas and refinery businesses. Historically, the company’s capital efficiency was skewed to the weaker end of the peer group range, even after this transformation, but management has since narrowed the gap by downsizing the portfolio and shifting capital toward higher-margin projects.

The firm is a top-five producer in the Gulf of Mexico, and the region accounts for almost half of its production. It signed a joint-venture agreement with Petrobras in late 2018, giving it an 80% stake in the combined assets of the two companies. Murphy has a number of expansion projects lined up there that should offset legacy declines and enable it to hold production flat in the next few years. There is regulatory risk, though: U.S. President Joe Biden has pledged to halt offshore oil and gas permitting activity (to demonstrate his climate credentials). 

 Like other shale producers, the firm has made considerable progress cutting costs and boosting productivity since the post-2014 downturn. However, while the firm still has over 1,400 drillable locations in inventory, fewer than 350 of them are in the prolific Karnes County area. When this portion is exhausted, well performance, and thus returns, could deteriorate. 

Financial Strength

The COVID-19-related collapse in crude prices during 2020 has taken its toll on most upstream oil firms, and Murphy has seen its leverage ratios tick higher as well. At the end of the last reporting period, debt/capital was 40% and net debt /EBITDA was 2.37 times. The firm currently holds about $2.8 billion of debt, and has roughly $1.7 billion in liquidity ($200 million cash and about $1.5 billion undrawn bank credit). The term structure of the firm’s debt is reasonably well spread out, and only about 20% of the outstanding notes come due before 2024 (the firm has maturities totaling $500 million in 2022). Murphy is likely to generate free cash flows of at least $100 million-$150 million in 2021 and 2022, based on strip prices, and its potential for generating free cash should increase further in 2023 (when some of the firm’s longer-term investments in the Gulf of Mexico start producing oil and contributing to cash flows). So the firm should have no issues covering the 2022 notes with cash, but if the operating environment deteriorates, management could always try to refinance the 2022 notes or lean on the revolver.

Bulls Say

  • The joint venture with Petrobras is accretive to Murphy’s production and generates cash flows that can be redeployed in the Eagle Ford and offshore.
  • The Karnes County portion of Murphy’s Eagle Ford acreage offers economics that are as good as or better than any other U.S. shale.
  • Murphy’s diversified portfolio gives it access to oil and natural gas markets in several regions, insulating it to a degree from commodity price fluctuations or regulatory risks.

Company Profile

Murphy Oil is an independent exploration and production company developing unconventional resources in the United States and Canada. At the end of 2020, the company reported net proven reserves of 715 million barrels of oil equivalent. Consolidated production averaged 174.5 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2020, at a ratio of 66% oil and natural gas liquids and 34% natural gas.

 (Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.