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Global stocks Shares

After a strong second quarter, Colfax raises its full-year outlook for 2021, as well as its fair value estimate

Our fair value increase reflects Colfax’s strong results, an improved near-term outlook, and time value of money, partially offset by the implementation of a probability-weighted change in the U.S. statutory tax rate in our model.

Colfax delivered stellar 59% year-over-year revenue growth, as sales rebounded strongly from last year’s depressed levels due to initial pressure from the coronavirus outbreak. Colfax’s revenue was also up 9% from prepandemic levels in the second quarter of 2019, with improvement in both segments. On an organic sales-per-day basis, second-quarter sales increased 44% year over year in fabrication technology and 54% year over year in the medical technology segment.

Colfax continues to grow its reconstructive business through M&A, aiming to grow the platform to $1 billion in revenue within the next five years. The company announced the acquisition of Mathys Bettlach for roughly $285 million. Mathys is a Swiss-based orthopedics company whose portfolio includes products for artificial joint replacement and synthetic bone replacement. Colfax expects the business to generate roughly $150 million in sales and $15- $20 million in EBITDA in 2022.

Company Profile
Colfax is a diversified technology firm that produces welding equipment and medical devices. Following the sale of its air and gas handling business in 2019, Colfax’s remaining portfolio is organized into two segments: fabrication technology and medical technology. Fabrication technology is a leading manufacturer of equipment and consumables used in welding, cutting, and joining applications, mostly marketed under the ESAB brand name. The medical technology segment makes medical devices, including orthopedic braces, reconstructive implants, and other products used for rehabilitation, physical therapy, and pain management. The company generated roughly $3.1 billion in revenue in 2020.

(Source: Morningstar)
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Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

Woodside Remains a Standout Energy Investment at the Right Price

Woodside is unique among Australian energy companies in that it has successfully managed the development of LNG projects for more than 25 years–unparalleled domestic experience at a complicated and expensive task. Adding to Woodside’s competitive advantages are the long-term 20-year off-take agreements with the who’s who of Asia’s blue chip energy utilities, such as Tokyo Electric, Kansai Electric, Chubu Electric, and Osaka Gas. These help ensure sufficient project financing during development and should bring stability to Woodside’s cash flows once projects are complete. Woodside also enjoys first-mover advantages. The NWS/JV has invested more than AUD 27 billion since the 1980s, building infrastructure at a fraction of the cost of today’s developments.

Woodside’s development pipeline is deep, enabling it to leverage the tried and trusted project-delivery platform as a template for other world-class gas accumulations off the north-west coast of Australia. Woodside is well suited to the development challenge. With extensive experience, it remains a stand-out energy investment at the right price. Gas is the fastest growing primary energy market behind coal, and the seaborne-traded LNG portion of that gas market grows faster still. China is building several import terminals, and so demand is likely to pick up, helping to move LNG pricing toward oil parity on an energy-equivalent basis.

Financial Strength

Balance sheet strength remains a key appeal of Woodside. The company’s net debt/EBITDA of just 0.9 affords it the luxury of seriously pursuing growth counter cyclically, where others necessarily focus on survival alone. Woodside’s net debt increased 60% to USD 2.6 billion at December 2020 versus one year prior, though for still modest 17% leverage (ND/ND+E). And despite expansionary capital expenditure programs, strong cash flows and a healthy balance sheet should regardless support ongoing dividend payments. We project peak net debt of around USD 9.7 billion in 2026, but net debt/EBITDA of just 1.8, and falling to sub-1.0 by 2030. This includes a sustained 80% payout ratio and a five-year average dividend of AUD 1.40 per share or 5.5% fully franked yield at the current share price. Expansionary expenditure on the Scarborough/Pluto T2 project, and potentially later on the Browse project, could see first expanded production in 2025. We model Woodside’s share of the combined capital cost at circa USD 14.0 billion, relatively the most capital-onerous of all four E&P companies, but driving a 25% increase in equity production to 125 mmboe, by 2026, and these are long-life additions.

Bull Says

  • Woodside is a beneficiary of continued increase in demand for energy. Behind coal, gas has been the fastest-growing primary energy segment globally. Woodside is favorably located on Asia’s doorstep.
  • Woodside’s cash flow base is comparatively diversified, with LNG making it less susceptible to the vagaries of pure oil producers. Gas is a primary component of Asian base-load power generation.
  • Gas has around half the carbon intensity of coal and it stands to gain market share in the generation segment and elsewhere if carbon taxes are instituted, as some predict.

Company Profile

Incorporated in 1954 and named after the small Victorian town of Woodside, Woodside’s early exploration focus moved from Victoria’s Gippsland Basin to Western Australia’s Carnarvon Basin. First LNG production from the North West Shelf came in 1984. BHP Billiton and Shell each had 40% shareholdings before BHP sold out in 1994 and Shell sold down to 34%. In 2010, Shell further decreased its shareholding to 24%. Woodside has the potential to become the most LNG-leveraged company globally.

(Source: Factset)

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Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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ipo IPO Watch

Glenmark Life Sciences IPO subscribed 1.43 times on day 1, retail portion booked 2.73 times

The size of the IPO has been cut to 1.5 crore equity shares after the business raised Rs 454 crore from anchor investors on July 26, a day before the sale was scheduled to commence.

Retail investors’ reserved portion has already been subscribed 5.16 times, while non-institutional investors’ portion has been subscribed 85 percent.

Qualified institutional buyers have placed bids for 10,540 equity shares out of a total of 42.42 lakh equity shares reserved for them.

Glenmark Pharma’s subsidiary seeks to collect Rs 1,513.6 crore through a public offering that includes a fresh issue of Rs 1,060 crore and a promoter offer to sell 63 lakh equity shares.

The offer’s price band has been set at Rs 695-720 per equity share, with the offer closing on July 29.

Company Profile

Glenmark Pharmaceuticals Limited is an Indian pharmaceutical company headquartered in Mumbai, India that was founded in 1977 by Gracias Saldanha as a generic drug and active pharmaceutical ingredient manufacturer; he named the company after his two sons. The company initially sold its products in India, Russia, and Africa. The company went public in India in 1999, and used some of the proceeds to build its first research facility. Saldanha’s son Glenn took over as CEO in 2001, having returned to India after working at PricewaterhouseCoopers. By 2008 Glenmark was the fifth-biggest pharmaceutical company in India.

(Source: Factset)

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Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Global stocks Shares

Domino’s Performs Positive Results for the 2nd Quarter

Sustained strength abroad led us to revisit our international unit growth assumptions, pushing us to the low end of management’s 6%-8% guidance over the next few years (6.4%) and raising our fair value estimate to $410 per share from $386. However, we view the market’s reaction as overblown, with the shares trading up 14.5% at the time of writing against our 6.2% fair value estimate lift. The shares currently trade about 30% ahead of our fair value estimate.

In our view, the most impactful earnings discussion pertained to labor market pressure, with management indicating that restaurant margins (24.5%, up 60 basis points sequentially) were largely attributable to understaffing, as even the largest operators are struggling to attract workers in a historically tight hiring environment. The restaurant workforce remains about 10% smaller than its pre-pandemic level, and operators have increasingly leaned on wage hikes, benefits, signing bonuses, and operational efficiencies to fully staff stores. While we expect the best-capitalized operators with strong restaurant margins (like Domino’s) to best weather the storm, we forecast midterm labor costs 150 basis points higher than 2019 (normalized) levels, at 30.5% of restaurant sales.

The firm’s attention to car-side carryout looks strategically sound, with Domino’s using the channel to compete with quick-service drive-thrus without having to pursue more expensive real estate. The channel offers incremental sales, pushes the firm’s digital mix higher, and requires minimal involvement at the point of sale, alleviating pressure.

Company’s Future Outlook

It is expected that Domino’s to benefit from a shift toward lower cost fulfillment channels like the carryout business (and car side carryout) while continuing to automate noncore tasks like closing tills, managing inventory, and benefiting from optimized labor spending via predictive scheduling. Nonetheless, we remain encouraged by the firm’s long-term upside, with our revised forecast calling for 9.5% average system sales growth, 6% unit growth, and 11.5% EPS growth over the next five years.

Company Profile

Domino’s Pizza is a restaurant operator and franchiser with more than 17,800 stores across 90 countries. The firm generates revenue through the sales of pizza, wings, salads, and sandwiches at company-owned stores, royalty and marketing contributions from franchise-operated stores, and its network of 26 dough manufacturing and supply chain facilities, which centralize purchasing, preparation, and last-mile delivery for more than 6,800 units in the U.S. and Canada. With roughly $16 billion in 2020 system sales, Domino’s is the largest player in the global pizza market, ahead of Pizza Hut, Papa John’s, and Little Caesars.

(Source: Factset)

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Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Technology Stocks

Despite a large year-over-year improvement, Gentex’s second quarter was hampered by parts shortages

Male gamer in headphones holds joystick and playing videogame on console or desktop PC, gaming lifestyle, cybersport. Computer games player in his room with neon light, streamer

, but sales fell by nearly 9% versus second-quarter 2019. Gentex shipped about 2 million less units than it expected at the start of the quarter, which caused diluted EPS of $0.36 to miss the Refinitiv consensus of $0.45.

The industry’s supply chains are in turmoil due to the semiconductor shortage impacting chip availability, but other disruptions unrelated to Gentex, such as foam shortages following Texas winter storms, caused automakers to change production at the last minute or refuse shipment of mirrors because other non-Gentex parts never arrived at the automakers’ assembly plants. This supply problem in our view will improve throughout 2021, and the worst of it is occurring in second quarter and early third quarter.

Gentex’s Revenue Growth

The lost production caused management to issue second-half 2021 guidance that implies lower full-year guidance than given in April. Revenue guidance is now $1.88 billion to $1.98 billion, instead of $1.94 billion to $2.02 billion, and we believe that second-half gross margin guidance of 37.5%-38.5% means April’s full-year guidance of gross margin between 39%-40% is not possible. We agree with management’s optimism around 2022 revenue growth being 10%-15%. Gentex’s cash-loaded and debt free balance sheet make times like this easier to get through management seems to be willing to continue share repurchases and spent $115.9 million on that in the second quarter.

Company Profile

Gentex was founded in 1974 to produce smoke-detection equipment. The company sold its first glare-control interior mirror in 1982 and its first model using electrochromic technology in 1987. Automotive revenue is about 98% of total revenue, and the company is constantly developing new applications for the technology to remain on top. Sales from 2020 totaled about $1.7 billion with 38.2 million mirrors shipped. The company is based in Zeeland, Michigan.

(Source: Factset)

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Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

Oil Futures Snap 4-day Winning Streak, Settle Marginally Lower

In other coronavirus news, Russia’s overall virus cases have topped 6 million, and Turkey’s infections have tripled since earlier this month.

China, the world’s largest petroleum importer, reported 76 new COVID-19 cases, the most since the end of January, amid a surge of local illnesses in Nanjing, in eastern China.

Floods and a typhoon have wreaked havoc on China’s central and eastern regions.

With robust demand in the United States and forecasts of restricted supply underpinning prices, investors are now looking for direction from the Federal Reserve meeting and reports on US oil inventories.

(Source: Factset)

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Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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LICs LICs

MA1 Suspended from trading as the Restructure to an ETMF Continues

For the half-year ended December 31, 2020, the gross portfolio return before all fees and expenses was roughly 44.36 percent.

MA1 shareholders unanimously approved the company’s restructuring as an Exchange Traded Managed Fund on May 10th (ETMF).

MA1 was taken off the market on May 28th and will be delisted on June 1st.

Units in the newly formed ETMF Monash Absolute Active Trust (Hedge Fund) are being issued to shareholders on an in-specie basis, with the new ticker MAAT slated to begin trading on the ASX on June 10th.

The ETMF will use a Single Unit (dual registry) Structure, allowing unit holders to buy and sell units on or off the market.

Company Profile

In 2012, Monash Investors was established by one of Australia’s most experienced fund managers in Simon Shields, the previous head of equities at both UBS and CFS, and Shane Fitzgerald a senior equity analyst from UBS and JPMorgan. The firm was set up to manage money in a way that both Simon and Shane felt was simply smarter than riding the share market up and down, instead, attempting to achieve targeted positive returns of double digits p.a. after fees, over a full market cycle while seeking to avoid loss of capital over the medium term. Importantly, it was the experience gained across multiple investment styles and in seeing the pitfalls in managing very large pools of capital that shaped the way the Fund is managed today.

(Source: Factset)

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Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

DTE Energy: Spin-Off of DT Midstream Completes & the FVE Adjusted To Reflect Separation

We expect high-single-digit growth in utility earnings over the next five years, driven in large part by grid investment at DTE Electric and replacing aging infrastructure at DTE Gas. DTE Electric is also investing heavily in gas power generation and renewable energy to replace its aging coal fleet. We estimate DTE will invest $18.5 billion at its utilities during the next five years in a Michigan regulatory framework that is constructive for investors.

We are less bullish about the earnings contribution from the power and industrial segment as reduced emissions fuel, or REF, earnings decline from the expiration of tax credits. However, we believe new industrial cogeneration projects and renewable natural gas from landfill projects should, for the most part, offset the REF decline. We estimate flat earnings will reduce the segment’s contribution to consolidated earnings from almost 13% in 2021, following the separation of DTM, to less than 10% by 2025.

Financial Strength

DTE’s book debt/capital ratio rose to 61% at 2020 year-end, a significant increase from five years ago when it averaged in the low-50% range. A stable interest coverage ratio during the next five years is expected, with EBITDA/ interest expense over 4 times. On June 24, DTE declared a $0.825 per-share quarterly dividend ($3.30 per-share annualized) on its common stock payable on Oct. 15, 2021, for shareholders of record at the close on Sept. 20, 2021. DTE management has indicated that the DTE dividend plus the DT Midstream dividend will total $4.70-$4.80 per-share annualized starting in the third quarter of 2021. The midpoint of this guidance would represent a 9.4% increase over the previous DTE dividend before the separation of DTM. The current    annual DTE dividend of $3.30 per share represents a payout ratio of approximately 60% on our 2021 EPS estimate of $5.51

Bull Says

  • Shareholders will receive a dividend increase when the DTE Energy and DT Midstream dividend are combined. It is estimated a 9.4% combined dividend increase, followed by 6% annual increases for DTE from 2022 to 2025.
  • Michigan’s aging utility infrastructure needs investment, which will mean regulated growth opportunities for DTE.
  • Over the past 10 years, Michigan regulation has been constructive for shareholders and is expected to remain favorable.

Company Profile

DTE Energy owns two regulated utilities in Michigan. DTE Electric serves approximately 2.2 million customers in southeastern Michigan including Detroit. DTE Gas serves 1.3 million customers throughout the state. In addition, DTE has nonutility businesses and investments including energy marketing and trading, renewable natural gas facilities, and on-site industrial energy projects.

(Source: Factset)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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LICs LICs

AFIC share price hits all time high

Over the shoulder view of and stock broker trading online while accepting orders by phone. Multiple computer screens ful of charts and data analyses in background.

According to AFIC, the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) is the largest current position, followed by BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP), CSL Limited (ASX: CSL), Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES), and Westpac Banking Corp. (ASX: WBC).

These top five positions, however, are supplemented by dozens of other ASX shares. And, with the ASX 200 index lately reaching new highs, AFIC would have benefitted from a rising tide lifting its whole portfolio (evidenced by its NTA per share growth).

This is most likely why the AFIC share price has reached an all-time high today. It isn’t the only one. Other LICs in the AFIC mould are also on the rise.

At the present AFIC share price, the organization has a market value of $9.62 billion and a trailing dividend yield of 3.05 percent (or 4.36 percent when AFIC’s full franking credits are considered).

The net tangible assets (NTA) per share increased to $7.45 per share in June (after tax). This is a significant increase over the previous month’s share price of $6.19. This means that for every AFIC share purchased, buyers receive $7.45 in other assets.

Over the last two decades, the AFIC has returned 5.23 percent in capital gains and 6.18 percent in fully franked dividends.

Company Profile

The Australian Foundation Investment Company Ltd (AFIC) is a Listed Investment Company in Australia (ASX: AFI) and it is one of the oldest on the ASX established in 1928.  It aims to provide shareholders with attractive investment returns by growing stream of fully franked dividends and growth in investment of capital. AFIC measures its performance through 2 measures namely portfolio return and the shareholders return. AFIC is presently Australia’s largest LIC, managing a portfolio worth around $8 billion for its stockholders.

(Source: Factset)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Currencies Trading Ideas & Charts

An e-commerce behemoth could be on the verge of making a huge foray into cryptocurrency.

So, what’s the deal?

A job offering for a “Digital Currency and Blockchain Product Lead” was recently posted on Amazon. The individual in charge of the e-commerce giant’s blockchain strategy and product roadmap will be tasked with filling the position.

Following a report from City A.M. on Monday, enthusiasm about Amazon’s digital currency plans reached a fevered pitch. Amazon is “absolutely” preparing up to take Bitcoin payments by the end of the year, according to the British financial journal, and plans to develop its own cryptocurrency by 2022.

Amazon, on the other hand, refuted City A.M.’s assertions, telling Bloomberg that “despite our interest in the industry, the conjecture that has ensued surrounding our precise plans for cryptocurrencies is not true.”           

Despite this, Amazon stated that it is keen to learn more about digital currencies and how they might be integrated into its large e-commerce network. The business stated, “We remain committed on investigating what this could look like for people shopping on Amazon.”

So, what’s next?

It would be a game-changer for the crypto business if Amazon accepted Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as payment. The action would immediately increase Bitcoin’s legitimacy and usability. As a result, the value of the cryptoasset would most likely increase.

Even if this happens, it will most likely take some time. In the interim, there are numerous dangers to be aware of. For instance, crypto investors should be on the lookout for a possible crackdown on stablecoin issuer Tether, which has piqued authorities’ interest in recent weeks after investors raised concerns about its reserve statements’ lack of clarity.

Source: Factset

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.