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Perpetual Smaller Companies Fund

Our Opinion

Highly competent PM

The PM, Jack Collopy has extensive experience and track record as an analyst and fund manager, with 21 years industry experience and 19 years with Perpetual. Mr. Collopy is supported by the wider Perpetual team of analysts, including deputy PM of the Fund Alex Patten. 

Constant rotation/changes at the PM level are a disappointment

 The constant rotation/changes at the PM or co-PM level in the last three years, for the Fund is a disappointment – we note that Mr. Collopy had transition to oversee other Perpetual strategies, leaving then co-PM Mr. Nathan Hughes to oversee the Fund. Mr. Hughes has since transitioned to become PM of Perpetual’s Ethical SRI Fund as of April 2019 (taking over from Mr. Collopy for that Fund). The Fund is now managed by Mr. Collopy with Alex Patten as deputy PM, who we think highly of, and have strong credentials and long investment experience. However, a period of stability at the PM level would give us more comfort before upgrading our recommendation.

Well-resourced investment team

Whilst the team managing the Fund is on the smaller end (relative to peers), the PMs of the Fund is able to tap into the expertise of the wider Perpetual investment team. The investment team is headed by Paul Skamvougeras, Head of Equities, and comprises a large and experienced team of Portfolio Managers (5), head of proprietary research (1), Deputy Portfolio Managers (3), Analysts (6) and the Responsible Investments team (2). Each Portfolio Manager is supported by the team of analysts and back-up procedures are shared throughout the large team. Jack Collopy is the Portfolio Manager of the Perpetual Smaller Companies Fund, with Alex Patten the Deputy Portfolio Manager. As such, ultimate investment responsibility rests with them. Mr. Collopy and Mr. Patten report directly to Paul Skamvougeras.

Solid investment process backed by bottom-up research 

The investment process is a bottom-up selection approach focused on quality and valuation, driven by research and engagement with management, which we think is particularly valuable in valuing smaller companies.

Downside Risks

Australian economic conditions deteriorate. 

The Portfolio Manager/analysts miss-calculate their bottom-up valuation.

Departure of key PM Jack Collopy or Deputy PM Alex Patten.

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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IPO Watch

True Balance plans to break even by the end of the year and list by 2024.

True Balance is seeing a lot of interest in its small loans, which has resulted in a 3x increase in revenue for the platform

True Balance’s revenue rose by 3X, and by November-December this calendar year, the company expects to be EBITDA favorable and break-even, he said. True Balance India is a completely owned subsidiary of Korea’s Balancehero Co Ltd, which owns and runs the ‘True Balance’ lending platform.

True Balance is an RBI-approved online service that arranges loans through True Credits, an RBI-licensed NBFC. Balancehero was launched in Korea in 2014 by Cheolwon ‘Charlie’ Lee and introduced the True Balance app in India in 2016 to help consumers handle their mobile recharge, bill payments, and balance check more conveniently. True Credits acquired their licence from the RBI in 2019, after which True Balance began financing.

Lee said the company is ready to listing in India and overseas when questioned about IPO ambitions. In 2021, the company is planning to treble its sales, which was USD 10 million in 2020. True Balance, which employs over 200 people, the majority of whom are located in India, is also trying to expand its workforce.

Lee found that the company has grown by 30 to 50 percent month over month, with the goal of concentrating on non-online payment and non-credit score customers.

Company profile

Develop a culture within the organisation that supports freedom of expression, fair opportunity for progress, open channels of communication, and complete transparency, all of which are guided by our 5 Core Values. Employees are at the centre of every decision, and this is what propels forwards.

Employees at Balancehero India are exposed to a neo-South Korean culture with simpler organisational structures, open office spaces, and a vibrant atmosphere that encourages everyone to contribute to the company’s ultimate goals. As a way of showing thanks where it is due, keep employees engaged and motivated through feedback and monthly prizes.

Souce: Economictimes

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Global stocks

Novartis AG(NOVN)

  • Recent and upcoming divestments will streamline the business and provide increased focus to deliver shareholder returns. 
  • Recent product launches indicate solid sales momentum, with near-term product pipeline potentially providing further upside.  
  • Selective bolt-on acquisitions to supplement organic growth. 
  • Operating efficiency focuses to further support earnings growth.
  • As the new management team improves Company culture, investors are less likely to ascribe a discount to the stock based on legacy issues.  

Key Risks

We see the following key risks to investment thesis:

  • Recently launched products fail to deliver sales growth as expected by the market.
  • New product pipeline fails to yield “blockbuster” products or delays in bringing key products to market.
  • R&D programs do not yield new long-term ideas.
  • Increased competition (pricing pressure & innovative products) from new entrants or existing players.  
  • Value destructive M&A.
  • Regulatory / litigation risks.

Management’s outlook

Assuming a continuation of the return to normal global healthcare systems including prescription dynamics particularly oncology in 2H21, and that no Gilenya and Sandostatin LAR generics enter in FY21 in the US, management anticipates (in cc); (1) FY21 net sales to grow low to mid-single digit, with Innovative Medicines to grow mid-single digit and Sandoz to decline low to mid-single digit, and core operating income to grow mid-single digit (ahead of sales), with Innovative Medicines growing mid to high-single digit, ahead of sales, and Sandoz declining low to mid-teens. (2) 2H21 net sales growth to accelerate from 3% in 1H21 to mid-single digit, as the Company continues to return to normal prescribing behaviors, as well as further Sandoz stabilization, and core operating income growth to be high-single digit, driven by higher sales and ongoing productivity programs partly offset by increased investments in growth drivers and pipeline.

Company Description  

Novartis AG (NOVN) is an innovative healthcare company headquartered in Basel, Switzerland, with approximately 125,000 employees. In 2017, the Group reported net sales of US$49.1bn, while R&D throughout the Group amounted to approximately US$9.0bn. The Company sells its products in approximately 155 countries. The group has two segments which it reports on: (1) Innovative Medicines (Oncology / Pharmaceutical), and (2) Sandoz generics division.    

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Technology Stocks

Grainger recovered its stronger sales growth but margin constraints have emerged in 2021.

investment stockbroker risk analysis using multiple devices. Financial analysis using phone app and laptop. Market trading profit.

The growing prevalence of e-commerce has intensified the competitive environment because of more price transparency and increased access to a wider array of vendors, including Amazon Business, which has entered the mix. 

As consumer preference began to shift to online and electronic purchasing platforms, Grainger invested heavily in improving its e-commerce capabilities and restructuring its distribution network. It is the now the 11th-largest e-retailer in North America; it shrank its U.S. branch network from 423 in 2010 to 287 in 2020 and added distribution centers in the U.S. to support the growing amount of direct-to-customer shipments. 

To address this problem, Grainger rolled out a more competitive pricing model. Lower prices hurt gross profit margins, but volume gains, especially among higher-margin spot buys and midsize accounts, have offset price reductions and helped the company meet its 12%-13% operating margin goal by 2019 (12.1% adjusted operating margin in 2019). Grainger continues to expand its endless assortment strategy, but we’re skeptical of the margin expansion opportunity for this business, given strong competition in the space from the likes of Amazon Business and others. 

Financial Strength

As of the second quarter of 2021, Grainger had $2.4 billion of debt outstanding, which net of $547 million of cash represents a leverage ratio of less than 1.1 times our 2021 EBITDA estimate. Grainger’s outstanding debt consists of $500 million of 1.85% senior notes due in 2025, $1 billion of 4.6% senior notes due in 2045, $400 million of 3.75% senior notes due in 2046, and $400 million of 4.2% senior notes due in 2047. Grainger has a proven ability to generate free cash flow throughout the cycle. Indeed, it has generated positive free cash flow every year since 2000, and its free cash flow generation tends to spike during downturns because of reduced working capital requirements. Given the firm’s reasonable use of leverage and consistent free cash flow generation, we believe Grainger’s financial health is satisfactory.

Bull Says

  • With a more sensible, transparent pricing model, Grainger should continue to gain share with existing customers and win higher-margin midsize accounts.
  • As a large distributor with national scale and inventory management services, Grainger is well positioned to take share from smaller regional and local distributors as customers consolidate their MRO spending.
  • Grainger operates a shareholder-friendly capital allocation strategy; it has increased its dividend for 49 consecutive years and has reduced its diluted average share count by over 40% over the last 20 years.

Company Profile

W.W. Grainger (NYSE: GWW) distributes 1.5 million of maintenance, repair, and operating products that are sourced from over 4,500 suppliers. The company serves approximately 5 million customers through its online and electronic purchasing platforms, vending machines, catalog distribution, and network of over 400 global branches. In recent years, Grainger has invested in its e-commerce capabilities and is the 11th-largest e-retailer in North America.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

NRG Energy Continues Its Move towards Consumer Services Business Model

The company remains on track to meet our full-year outlook, which includes an estimated $1 billion gross negative impact from winter storm Uri in mid-February, in line with management’s guidance. Our fair value estimate includes a $2 per share reduction to reflect storm losses partially offset by near-term cost-savings benefits and long-term benefits from changes in Texas energy markets that should favor NRG.

After closing the $3.625 billion Direct Energy deal in January and several moves to shrink its power generation fleet, NRG is on a path toward becoming primarily a retail energy services company rather than an independent power producer. It already ranks among the largest retail electricity and natural gas companies in the U.S. and plans to expand its customer base in areas outside its core Texas market. Although this strategic shift changes NRG’s fundamental value drivers, we still don’t think it can establish a long-term competitive advantage that would warrant an economic moat.

Management reaffirmed its $2.4 billion-$2.6 billion EBITDA guidance excluding storm impacts for 2021, in line with our estimate. Management has pulled back substantially on its debt reduction plan and now targets $255 million of debt reduction this year, down from its pre-storm plan to retire $1.05 billion of debt this year. share buybacks and dividend growth will become top capital allocation options in 2022 as NRG pushes back its timeline for achieving investmentgrade credit ratings.

Company Profile 

NRG Energy is one of the largest retail energy providers in the U.S., with 7 million customers, including its 2021 acquisition of Direct Energy. It also is one of the largest U.S. independent power producers, with 22 gigawatts of nuclear, coal, gas, and oil power generation capacity primarily in Texas. Since 2018, NRG has divested its 47% stake in NRG Yield, among other renewable energy and conventional generation investments. NRG exited Chapter 11 bankruptcy as a stand-alone entity in December 2003.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Global stocks

Federal Realty Outperforms Our Expectations and Raises both 2021 and 2022 Guidance in Q2

 Re-leasing spreads continue to be strong despite the pandemic, seeing rents on leases signed during the quarter increase 7.5% with leases to new tenants up 10.2% over the prior rent. Second quarter rent collection improved to 94% compared with 90% in the first quarter and improved to 98% compared with 96% if rent abatement and rent deferral agreements are included. Improving rent collection drove same-store net operating income growth of 39.4% in the quarter, ahead of our 28.1% estimate in the second quarter. 

As a result, funds from operations came in at $1.41 for the quarter, above of our estimate of $1.25 in the quarter and well above the $0.77 figure reported in the second quarter of 2020 but still below the $1.60 level reported in the second quarter of 2019. The strong second-quarter results led to management significantly increasing its FFO guidance. Management raised its 2021 FFO guidance by $0.49 at the midpoint to a new range of $5.05-$5.15, which is slightly ahead of our current $5.02.

Additionally, management also raised their guidance for 2022 FFO by 25 cents at the midpoint to a new range of $5.30-$5.50. While the increase is encouraging, the updated range is still below our current $5.96 estimate for 2022. However, REITs rarely give FFO guidance for the next year this far out and, given the high level of uncertainty that still exists in retail, we suspect that management is being conservative with its 2022 estimates.

Company Profile 

Federal Realty Investment Trust is a shopping center-focused retail real estate investment trust that owns high-quality properties in eight of the largest metropolitan markets. Its portfolio includes an interest in 101 properties, which includes 23.4 million square feet of retail space and over 2,600 multifamily units. Federal’s retail portfolio includes grocery-anchored centers, superregional centers, power centers, and mixed-use urban centers. Federal Realty has focused on owning assets in highly desirable areas with significant growth, and as a result, the average population density and average median household income are higher for its portfolio than for any other retail REIT.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN) Continue To Be Expensive, But There Are Still Pockets Of Value To Be Found.

 Revenue, profit, and market capitalization all grew significantly, but are expected to rely more heavily on lithium production going forward. Management has significantly improved disclosure, earnings streams have been materially diversified and the investment strategy has consistently generated high returns on invested capital. We expect a well-supplied lithium market in the longer term, coupled with weaker demand growth for steel, particularly from China, to drive lower prices and reduce the pool of available contracting work. Despite this, we think Mineral Resources can drive EPS growth on volume.

Key Investment Considerations

Management has significantly improved disclosure, earnings streams have been materially diversified and the investment strategy has consistently generated high returns on invested capital. We think the business model is demonstrably sustainable, centering on Mining Services around Australian bulk commodities. Mineral Resources will selectively own and develop its own mining operations, though with the aim of subsequent sell-down while retaining core processing and screening rights.

Financial Strength

Mineral Resources is in strong financial health. Albemarle’s acquisition of a 60% stake in Wodgina lithium instantly expunged net debt in first-half fiscal 2020.From a net debt position of AUD 872 million at end June 2019. Lithium project construction expenditure was at the core of the cash drain. The current circumstance is a return to the usual territory for Mineral Resources, which operated in a position of little to no net debt for at least the eight years to fiscal 2018; a sensible position for a company operating in the volatile mining services space. Mineral Resources had faced the key question of what it should do with its cash, with a shrinking pool of growth and investment opportunities in a lower iron ore price environment. 

Bull Says

  • Mineral Resources grew strongly since listing in 2006. The chairman and managing director have been with the business for over a decade and have meaningful shareholdings.
  • Australian iron ore is mainly purchased by Chinese steel producers, meaning Mineral Resources offers leveraged exposure to Chinese economic growth.
  • Mineral Resources has a recurring base of revenue and earnings from processing infrastructure.
  • Mineral Resources’ balance sheet is very strong with net cash. This has opened up the opportunity for lithium investments selling into highly receptive markets.

Company Profile

Mineral Resources Ltd. (ASX: MIN) listed on the ASX in 2006 following the merger of three mining services businesses. The subsidiary companies were previously owned by managing director Chris Ellison, who remains a large shareholder despite selling down. Operations include iron ore and lithium mining, iron ore crushing and screening services for third parties, and engineering and construction for mining companies. Mining and contracting activity is focused in Western Australia.

 (Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Property

ALE Property Group(LEP)

Mortgage, investment, real estate and property concept. Dollar money and house keys
  • Triple net leases to ALH.
  • High quality property portfolio with positive fundamentals and supportive demographics.
  • Potential upside as LEP’s assets have significant land value (95 hectares) and LEP continues to explore development opportunities with ALH.
  • Long term leases with average lease term of >8 years (and positive lease terms).
  • 100% occupancy rate as all properties are leased to ALH.
  • Solid distribution yield.
  • Potential rental growth from upcoming rental reviews in 2018.
  • Demand for pub property investment remains strong

Key Risks

We see the following key risks to investment thesis:

  • Interest rate levels may rise or deterioration in credit/capital markets and thus reduced profitability and distributions
  • Any slowdown in demand and net absorption for retail space.
  • Any deterioration in property fundamentals especially delays with developments, declining asset values, bankruptcies and rising vacancies.
  • Declines in property valuations.
  • Rental rates post reviews may be unfavorable.
  • Weakness in rental demand – Slow wage growth and on the back of rising costs of living.
  • LEP is exposed to single tenant risk from ALH via any default on rental payments. ALH is part of Endeavour Group, which is likely to be demerged in CY20. Whilst default remains unlikely, single tenant risk is higher than previous levels.
  • Adverse regulatory changes on liquor or gaming licenses could impact the profitability of tenants (lockout laws repeals may not be as effective as desired).
  • Distribution has been less than distributable profit, and management has had to finance the difference using cash reserves and undrawn debt facilities. However, net gearing is at historically low levels.
  • REITs as bond proxy stocks are impacted by expected cash rate hikes.

Property portfolio highlights

(1) divestment of non-core assets. LEP divested $72.86m of non-core assets, at a yield of 4.4% and 24.2% premium to book value. Proceeds were used to reduce net debt and partially restructure LEP’s interest rate swap book. LEP’s asset at Tudor Inn, Cheltenham Victoria and Royal Exchange Hotel, Toowong Queensland are currently for sale by tender and auction respectively. 

(2) Valuation uplift. 36 properties (44% of the portfolio) were independently valued, and Directors’ valuations were undertaken for the remaining 44 properties (56%), and resulted in an uplift of $89.71m, or 7.45%, since December 2020, to total value of $1,294.261m (on 4.59% adopted passing yield versus 4.94% in December 2020).

Company Description  

ALE Property Group (LEP) is the owner of Australia’s largest portfolio of freehold pub properties. Established in November 2003, ALE owns a portfolio of 86 pub properties across Australia, with a value of ~$1,172.1m (average value of $12.6m on weighted average cap rate of 5.09%). All the properties are leased to Australian Leisure and Hospitality Group Limited (ALH). ALH is Australia’s largest pub operator with ~330 licensed venues, ~550 liquor outlets and ~1,900 short stay rooms.

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Property

Zurich Investments Australia Property

The strategy is managed by Renaissance Asset Management while its distribution and marketing functions are provided by Zurich Investments. Co-founders Carlos Cocaro and Damien Barrack established Renaissance in 2003, however, their history of working together dates back to the late 1990s. The experienced duo often express contrarian views on the property stocks and sub-sectors in their investment universe, however, they continue to impress with the depth of research and insights that back up their opinion.

Relentless value-focus and considered risk-taking

Renaissance is value-focused, and this translates into sizable departures from index weightings or investing off-benchmark. The portfolio actively tilts toward sectors and companies that look the cheapest, which means it can have significant small-cap exposures at times. All research and valuation estimates are internally driven and modelled. The portfolio managers meet with companies every six months and inspect key property assets about every three years, or at other times if required.

The pair’s views on a trust’s strategy, asset management, and capital management skills are then captured in five-year earnings forecasts for each security. Careful analysis of the property sector is another key input into valuations and overall portfolio positioning. From a risk perspective, stocks must have a minimum interest cover of at least 2 times and/or a debt/asset ratio of less than 40% to be considered. 

Portfolio construction is determined by a value-ranking model with three yardsticks–twoyear distribution yields, five-year internal rates of return, and price/net asset value–with a definite leaning toward the first two measures. Dipping into off-benchmark stocks means liquidity can be scarce, but the team handles this through patience, buying into weakness and selling into strength.

Out-of-favour names and off-index small caps create differentiated portfolio

The value mindset results in a very different portfolio from the highly concentrated S&P/ASX 300 A-REIT Index at times. A chunky overweight in cheaper small caps since 2007 was curtailed in 2017 as they saw pricey-looking smaller names offering less opportunity, while valuation extremes in some large-cap stocks offered potential. This fund is not shy about participating in IPOs or soon after, as was illustrated by a number of IPO investments in 2016. 

Value remains the prime consideration for investment, illustrated by Renaissance’s investment into Propertylink after the stock underperformed following its IPO. Renaissance is overweight malls (as at 31 May 2021), particularly flagship operators such as Scentre Group, Vicinity, and Carindale shopping centre; the team feels that, while there is a cyclical and structural slowdown in retail, retail flagships will hold up better than their current market value implies. 

The team liked the office space from 2016 onward but viewed many of the stocks as expensive, but it did well from holding a relatively cheap Investa Office. In 2019, Renaissance expanded its underweight to Goodman Group, which it view as overpriced and with high operational leverage that could hurt in a downturn. Throughout 2020, the portfolio was overweight large caps because of better value but rotated into higher-yielding small-cap names at the beginning of 2021.

Source: Morningstar

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Global stocks

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.( TSMC)

JAPÓN BOLSA:KMA06. TOKIO (JAPÓN), 03/01/2018.- Un grupo de mujeres usan kimono durante la ceremonia de apertura de la Bolsa de Tokio de Japan Exchange Group, Inc. de la primera sesión comercial de Año Nuevo en 2018 en la Bolsa de Tokio, en Tokio, (Japón) hoy, jueves 4 de enero de 2018. EFE/KIMIMASA MAYAMA
  • Market leading position and room for further consolidation. TSMC’s significant expenditure on R&D should help it maintain this leadership position.
  • TSMC is leading the race in developing the new age of semiconductor chips such as Logic Technology, with thinner wafers being developed every year.
  • High barriers to entry – significant level of capital and know-how required to start a semiconductor business.
  • Independent and pure-play focus on manufacturing without marketing or branding of product eliminates conflict of interest with customers.

Key Risks

We identify the following key risks to investment thesis:

  • Moderating global economic growth, especially in the U.S. and China.
  • Trade tensions between the U.S. and China.
  • Operational risks such as suboptimal manufacturing quality of products e.g. Fab14B photo incident.
  • Softening smartphone sales and production. There may be a time-lag before the layout of 5G and AI materialize into sales for TSMC, e.g. regulatory restrictions.
  • Increasing commodity prices and difficulty for TSMC to improve margins. 
  • Unfavorable exchange rate movements between NT$ and currencies used in transactions (however, TSMC utilizes hedging strategies to manage this risk).

Management Outlook:

Forecasting strong demand for industry-leading 5nm and 7nm technologies, driven by all four growth platforms (smartphone, HPC, IoT and Automotive-related applications), anticipating 3Q21 revenue of US$14.6-14.9bn, and gross profit margin of 49.5-51.5% and operating profit margin of 38.5-40.5% (based on the exchange rate assumption of 1 US dollar to 27.9 NT dollars). Mr. C. C. Wei (CEO) noted, “For FY21, we now forecast the overall semiconductor market excluding memory to grow about 17%, while foundry industry growth is forecast to be about 20%, and remain confident we can outperform the foundry revenue growth and grow above 20% in 2021 in US$…we now expect our long-term revenue CAGR from 2020 to 2025 to be near the high end of our 10-15% CAGR range in US$…however, in the near term, we continue to observe both short-term imbalances in the supply chain driven by the need to ensure supply security as well as a structural increase in long-term demand, and while the short-term imbalance may or may not persist, we expect our capacity to remain tied throughout the year and into 2022, fuelled by strong demand for our industry-leading advanced and special technologies.”

Company Description  

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSMC), together with its subsidiaries, engages in manufacturing, selling, packaging, testing, and computer-aided design of integrated circuits and other semiconductor devices. Based in Taiwan, the company manufactures masks and electronic spare parts; researches, develops, designs, manufactures, sells, packages, and tests colour filters; and offers customer and engineering support services. TSMC is the largest semiconductor manufacturing foundry in the world.

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.