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Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

Consolidated Edison Reports Weak Q2 Due to Adverse Weather Events but Reaffirms Earnings Guidance

Adjusted EPS in the recently ended quarter were $0.53 versus $0.60 in the same period last year. Earnings in the second quarter were negatively impacted by several heat waves in June. Con Ed mobilizes crews in anticipation of weather events, resulting in significant extra costs even when the weather events end up not being as serious as anticipated.

Our 2021 adjusted EPS estimate of $4.25 is unchanged and at the midpoint of management’s $4.15-$4.35 EPS guidance range. Management increased its 2023 rate base guidance by $135 million due to the approval of a new transmission line. The increase in projected rate base would result in about a $0.01 increase in our 2023 EPS estimate but would not have a material impact on our fair value estimate.

Con Ed’s regulatory allowed returns are lower than industry average, but the overall regulatory rate structures in New York remain constructive. Multi-year rate cases provide forward-looking estimates of capital expenditures and rate base, swallowing Consolidated Edison Company of New York, Con Ed’s largest subsidiary, to consistently earn near or above its 8.8% allowed return on equity.

Company Profile 

Con Ed is a holding company for Consolidated Edison Company of New York, or CECONY, and Orange & Rockland, or O&R. These utilities provide steam, natural gas, and electricity to customers in southeastern New York–including New York City–and small parts of New Jersey. The two utilities generate roughly 90% of Con Ed’s earnings. The other 10% of earnings comes from investments in renewable energy projects and gas and electric transmission. These investments have resulted in Con Ed becoming the second-largest owner of utility-scale PV solar capacity in the U.S.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Currencies Trading Ideas & Charts

Coinbase Global Benefits from more Interest and Adoption of Cryptocurrency, but the Future Remains Unknown

Golden bitcoins. Cryptocurrency on computer motherboard.

The company’s reputation, regulatory compliance, and track record as a custodian have allowed it to maintain transaction fees above many of its peers despite operating in a crowded field with hundreds of competing firms trying to grab market share in the rapidly growing space. Coinbase has continued to branch off into adjacent businesses offering cryptocurrency collateralized loans, a crypto debit card, blockchain infrastructure support, and data analytics services.

While these new businesses expand the company’s presence in the cryptocurrency space and add new revenue streams, the company still earns the majority of its income through the transaction fees traders pay when they trade on Coinbase’s platform. These fees are charged as a percentage of trade’s total value. Due to its breadth of its service offerings and the connection between cryptocurrency prices and trading revenue, Coinbase’s short- and long-term results are deeply tied to the health and growth of cryptocurrencies as an asset class. 

Cryptocurrency adoption continues to rise but questions regarding the long-term viability of cryptocurrency, the role of speculation in current market prices, and the potential for a more hostile regulatory environment remain unanswered.

Financial Strength 

Coinbase is in an excellent financial position, particularly after receiving an influx of capital from private-investment- in-public-equity investors coinciding with its direct listing on the Nasdaq exchange. Coinbase saw a spike in trading volume in the first quarter of 2021, leading the company to generate more net income in the first quarter of the year than in the entirety of 2020. As a result, the company ended March 2021 with nearly $2 billion in cash against only $500 million in borrowed crypto assets. Since March, Coinbase has issued $1.25 in convertible debt due in 2026, adding to both its liquidity reserves and its debt load. The decision to keep Coinbase largely free of debt makes sense given how volatile the company’s revenue generation can be. Coinbase needs to keep sufficient financial reserves to sustain itself in the event of a major market collapse.

No-moat Coinbase reported strong second-quarter results with earnings of $6.42 per share and net revenue of $2.23 billion coming in above our expectations. Earnings benefited from a tax benefit of $737 million as a result of tax deductions associated with the company’s direct listing. Strong cryptocurrency prices during the quarter drove total trading volume to a new all-time high of $462 billion, 38% more than last quarter. Coinbase added 29 new cryptocurrencies to be traded on its platform and now lists 83 different offerings. Coinbase continues to increase spending with operating expenses increasing 66% from last quarter and 838% year over year. As a result of the sharp sequential increase in operating expenses the company’s operating margin fell from roughly 55% in the first quarter to 39% in the current quarter.

The two largest drivers of this decline were technology and development spending, which increased 58%, sequentially and marketing spending, which increased 66%. Historically, Coinbase has kept marketing spending at 10% or less of sales, as it relied more heavily on word of mouth than on advertising to grow. The company is now guiding marketing expenses to be around 12%-15% of sales during 2021. Average retail trading fees increased from 1.21% in the first quarter to 1.26% in the second quarter, due to a mix shift away from the company’s less expensive Coinbase Pro platform. 

Bulls Say’s

  • Coinbase has established itself as the leading U.S.cryptocurrency exchange and established a strong reputation for security in an industry filled with risk for traders.
  • Coinbase has been able to accelerate the rate at which it lists new cryptocurrencies, giving the company more exposure to the growth of the asset class.
  • There is a global market for cryptocurrency. Regulatory approval from international regulators will allow Coinbase to expand its operations and increase its footprint globally.

Company Profile 

Founded in 2012, Coinbase is the leading cryptocurrency exchange platform in the United States. The company intends to be the safe and regulation-compliant point of entry for retail investors and institutions into the cryptocurrency economy. Users can establish an account directly with the firm, instead of using an intermediary, and many choose to allow Coinbase to act as a custodian for their cryptocurrency, giving the company breadth beyond that of a traditional financial exchange. While the company still generates the majority of its revenue from transaction fees charged to its retail customers, Coinbase uses internal investment and acquisitions to expand into adjacent businesses, such as prime brokerage, data analytics, and collateralized lending.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Global stocks Shares

Rapid Deployment of Ships Set Buoying Royal Caribbean Outlook for Positive Profitability in Early 2022

Portrait of Vietnamese young stock broker talking on the phone with coworker

 while COVID-19 remains pervasive. With a return to sail underway, cruise operators are now utilzing updated health protocols to ensure the safety of cruising as paying customers return onboard. As virus mitigation tactics prove successful, we expect Royal to see modest pricing gains as it digests bookings paid for with future cruise credits, limiting near-term yield gains. On the cost side, stringent health protocols and cruise resumption costs should inflate spending, factors that will aggravate profitability through 2022.

Royal took quick action to reduce operating expenses and capital expenditures as a result of the coronavirus (we forecast capital expenditures of $2.2 billion in 2021, down from $3 billion in prepandemic 2019). Also, since the beginning of the pandemic, the firm accessed around $13 billion to enhance its liquidity cushion. Further, as of June 30, $2.4 billion in customer deposits were still available for use. Although we believe Royal’s cash burn should remain between $300 million-$350 million a month (as it restaff the fleet), it should be able to navigate a graduated return to sailing over the next six months. While Royal is set to return to positive profitability over the next year, the prior 20>25 by 2025 target (EPS to $20 by 2025) is virtually impossible to reach as a result of secular changes in demand due to COVID-19.

Financial Strength 

Royal has taken numerous steps to ensure it remains a going concern after COVID-19. In March 2020, Royal noted it was taking actions to reduce operating expenses and capital expenditures by the tune of $1.7 billion to improve liquidity. Additionally, since the beginning of the pandemic, the firm secured around $13 billion in liquidity through various debt and equity issuances (resulting in our estimate for $1.1 billion in debt service costs in 2021, up from around $400 million in 2019). 

Furthermore, as of June 30, $2.4 billion in customer deposits were still available for use, although industry commentary suggests about half of canceled bookings have been refunded in cash rather than future cruise credits during the pandemic. And in April 2020, Royal announced it was laying off or furloughing more than 25% of its 5,000 shoreside employees. The cash burn for Royal every month while restaffing and redeployng its ships should be between $300 million-$350 million.

Bulls Say’s 

  • If COVID-19’s delta variant recedes quickly, yields could recover faster than we currently anticipate.
  • Lower fuel prices could help benefit the cost structure to a greater degree than initially expected, thanks to Royal’s floating energy prices (with only about 50% of fuel costs historically hedged).
  • The nascent Asia-Pacific market should remain promising post-COVID-19, as the four largest operators previously had capacity for nearly 4 million passengers at the beginning of 2020, which provides an opportunity for long-term growth with a new consumer when cruising fully resumes.

Company Profile 

Royal Caribbean is the world’s second-largest cruise company, operating 60 ships across five global and partner brands in the cruise vacation industry. Brands the company operates include Royal Caribbean International, Celebrity Cruises, and Silversea. The company also has a 50% investment in a joint venture that operates TUI Cruises and Hapag-Lloyd Cruises, allowing it to compete on the basis of innovation, quality of ships and service, variety of itineraries, choice of destinations, and price. The company is completed the divestiture of its Azamara brand in the first quarter of 2021.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
ipo IPO Watch

Home cooking helps Cobram Estate Olives (ASX: CBO) build a $700m

Cobram Estate debuted on the ASX on Wednesday in a compliance listing in which it did not raise new capital but transformed from an unlisted public company with 705 shareholders to a publicly traded company in full view of the public. In its first hour on the ASX, the firm traded between $1.82 and $1.89 a share, giving it a market capitalisation of $706 million at the low end.

The organization’s chairman and co-founder, Rob McGavin, said it was satisfying to have established a corporation worth more than $700 million, but the group is now focused on long-term strategic decisions.

With a market capitalization of $700 million, it is almost twice as valuable as department store chain Myer, a household name that has struggled to keep up with online shopping and the epidemic. Cobram Estate, Australia’s No. 1 extra virgin olive oil and a huge seller at Woolworths and Coles, and Red Island, a more value-oriented brand, are the two prominent brands.

Cobram Estate’s Total Production 

Mr McGavin said that during the epidemic, sales were boosted by frequent capital city lockdowns, which drove many households to look more thoroughly at the sources of items used in recipes. Cobram Estate employs 172 employees, each of whom received 500 free shares as part of the company’s ASX IPO. Cobram Estate grows 2.4 million olive trees on 6854 hectares of farmland in central Victoria, accounting for 71% of Australia’s total olive oil production.

A few weeks ago, stockbrokers tested the appetite of potential investors with a $2 issue price, but found little institutional interest at that level. The board of directors opted to forego any capital offering and instead pursue a compliance listing.

According to the prospectus, Cobram Estate’s revenue for the year ended June 30 is estimated to be $211 million, with a net profit of $33.6 million. Because of the unique characteristics of the olive producing sector, where trees only produce one large crop every two years, the company will need to conduct a substantial education drive for new shareholders.

The harvest in 2021, which lasted from late April to June, was one of the large crop years, implying that next year’s crop will be “light”. The harvest in 2021 was 16.05 million litres, which was 7% higher than expected.

Company Profile 

COBRAM ESTATE PTY LTD is located in DOCKLANDS, VICTORIA, Australia and is part of the Fruit and Tree Nut Farming Industry. COBRAM ESTATE PTY LTD has 120 employees at this location and generates $4.80 million in sales (USD). (Employees figure is estimated, Sales figure is modelled). There are 10 companies in the COBRAM ESTATE PTY LTD corporate family.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Technology Stocks

Marvell Technology Inc. (NASDAQ: MRVL) Maintains FVE $40 & Aiming to take the Cloud and 5G Markets

The concept of 5G network with magnifying glass on modern circuit board, high-speed mobile internet and new generation networks technology background

Marvell is the leader in DPUs and PAM-4 optics, and the clear second in the enterprise and cloud Ethernet markets. Marvell’s recent financial history has been choppy, as result of CEO Matt Murphy’s aggressive overhaul of the business’ focus. Marvell has emerged as a strong competitor in the networking chip market, following a multiyear business pivot to acquisitions, divestitures, and organic development to focus on high-growth cloud, 5G, and automotive markets.

Between data processing units, or DPUs, optical interconnect, and Ethernet solutions, Marvell has one of the broadest networking silicon portfolios in the world, and we think it is primed to steal market share from incumbent Broadcom with bleeding-edge technology. Marvell has the right portfolio to invest aggressively in organic growth going forward, but don’t rule out further acquisitions to bolster its competitiveness and enter adjacent markets.

Company’s Future outlook
Marvell’s 2021 acquisitions of In phi and Innovium will give it a path to robust and sustained top-line growth in the cloud market and expect significant margin expansion over our 10-year forecast even as it invests to compete with larger rivals. Nevertheless, the market is assuming nearly immediate operating synergies from these two acquisitions, which take some time and the shares are significantly overvalued at this point and caution investors to await a greater margin of safety. The reorganization is squarely in the firm’s rearview mirror now, and forecast mid-teens sales growth and immense margin expansion over the next 10 years. The combination of 2021 acquisitions In phi and Innovium under Marvell’s umbrella will create a dangerous combination to Broadcom in the high-performance switching arena and enable share gains.

Company Profile
Marvell Technology Inc. (NASDAQ: MRVL) is a leading fables chipmaker focused on networking and storage applications. Marvell serves the data center, carrier, enterprise, automotive, and consumer end markets with processors, optical interconnections, application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs), and merchant silicon for Ethernet applications. The firm is an active acquirer, with five large acquisitions since 2017 helping it pivot out of legacy consumer applications to focus on the cloud and 5G markets.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning
Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Global stocks Shares

Monster Beverage Glass Is Half-Full as Its Tremendous Commercial Success Is Offset by Inflation Headwinds

Stock exchange market concept, stock broker looking at graph working and analyzing with display screen, pointing on the data presented and deal on a exchange, Businessman trading stocks online.

 Monster continues to extract outsize growth and stella profitability from this market. Crucial to Monster’s positioning in the market is its partnership with Coca-Cola. Being able to rely on the widest moat in beverages for distribution, merchandising, and retailer negotiation reinforces and perpetuates the benefits of its resonant brand, in our view. With its entire U.S. footprint and most international territories fully incorporated into the Coke system, strategic and logistic planning should become more seamless, allowing products to be scaled more quickly, particularly in international markets (over 35% of sales). Despite the inevitable complexity of appealing to distinct local palates, we believe Monster’s continued geographic diversification should augment its positioning.

Given the importance of the Coke relationship, the launch of Coke Energy products following arbitration between the two parties was a significant development. Still, it has proved to be far from an existential threat, garnering trivial share in the markets where it launched (and recently discontinued in the U.S.). In addition to a seemingly more tenuous Coke relationship, Monster must contend with an intense competitive environment. While Red Bull remains the most formidable rival, Monster is also beleaguered by a number of both established and upstart firms looking to carve out niches in the energy space. Nevertheless, structural advantages and an experienced management team should allow the firm to navigate an evolving competitive landscape.

Financial Strength 

Moreover, the business churns out healthy free cash flow, with over $1.1 billion generated on average over the past three years (high-20s as a percentage of sales). The company’s free cash flow has historically supported persistent share repurchases, and the company’s ability to continue buying back shares amid market disruptions like the coronavirus pandemic is a poignant illustration of its financial health, in our view. As of June 2021, Monster had over $1.5 billion in cash and short-term investments on its balance sheet, with no long-term debt to speak of. 

Still, general liquidity is not a concern. In addition to its healthy cash balance and an untapped revolver, Monster has implemented certain nontraditional means of financing, such as a working capital line of credit that is similar to an interest-bearing liability but not treated as leverage for accounting purposes. 

Bulls Say’s

  • Monster is a leading pure-play incumbent in a secularly advantaged beverage category that is growing in the high single digits, meaningfully above the broader industry average (low single digits).
  • Monster’s strategic partnership with Coca-Cola aligns its fortunes with the widest moat in nonalcoholic beverages, affording it top-tier store positioning and merchandising.
  • International expansion through Coke’s bottlingsystem offers material runway for growth.

Company Profile

Monster Beverage is a leader in the energy drink subsegment of the beverage industry. The Monster trademark anchors its portfolio, and notable offerings include Monster Energy and Monster Ultra. The firm has also started to incubate new trademarks for emerging enclaves of the energy space, like Reign in performance energy. It is primarily a brand owner, outsourcing most of its manufacturing processes to third-party copackers. It primarily uses the Coca-Cola bottling system for distribution after a strategic agreement in which Coke became Monster’s largest shareholder (roughly 19%) and that also included the exchange of certain businesses between the two firms. Most of Monster’s revenue is generated in the United States, though international geographies are increasing in the mix.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Global stocks

Softbank Group Reports Solid Quarter of Vision Fund Growth

JAPÓN BOLSA:KMA06. TOKIO (JAPÓN), 03/01/2018.- Un grupo de mujeres usan kimono durante la ceremonia de apertura de la Bolsa de Tokio de Japan Exchange Group, Inc. de la primera sesión comercial de Año Nuevo en 2018 en la Bolsa de Tokio, en Tokio, (Japón) hoy, jueves 4 de enero de 2018. EFE/KIMIMASA MAYAMA

as expected with the company reporting strong performance from the Vision Fund in line with stock market rises and generally strong recent IPOs.

Softbank fair value estimate of JPY 9200 is mainly due to a 4% downgrade in our valuation for Alibaba following its June quarter result, offset by increased valuation for Vision Fund 2 in line with valuation improvement over the quarter. The stock price is now below our fair value estimate with the main difference likely to be due to our valuation of Alibaba which is around 55% above the current stock price.

The Vision Funds and Latin America Fund held 221 investments at the end of June 2021. SFV1 reported a net realized gain of JPY 310 billion due mainly to selling some shares in Door Dash, Uber, and Guardant Health. The net unrealized gain of JPY 3.5 billion was much lower with strong share price performances of DiDi and Door Dash partially offset by weaker share price performance of some listed portfolio companies, particularly Coupang. In terms of sectors, the investments are also well diversified with 28% in consumer, 20% in transportation, 17% in logistics, and 10% in frontier tech 10%, 7% in proptech, 7% in fintech, and 3% in health tech.

Company’s Future Outlook

Softbank’s 40.2%-owned domestic telecom business, Softbank Corp, reported a fourth-quarter result in line with our estimates with revenue increasing by 0.7%, operating income increasing by 4.1% and net profit down 0.8%. Management estimated the first-quarter mobile price cuts negatively impacted the first quarter by around JPY 10 billion with a JPY 70 billion impact factored into unchanged full-year fiscal 2021 guidance for revenue of JPY 5.5 trillion (5.7% growth), operating income of JPY 975 billion (0.4% growth), and net income of JPY 500 billion (1.8% growth). A further price cut has been introduced for low end customers in July which looks likely to continue to put pressure on mobile pricing. The fair value estimated of JPY 1450 per share which is slightly below where the stock is trading.

Company Profile

Softbank Group Corporation’s (JPY: 9984)  is a Japan-based telecom and e-commerce conglomerate that has expanded mainly through acquisitions, and its key assets include a 28% stake in Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba and a 40% owned mobile and fixed broadband telecom operator business in Japan. It also owns 75% of semiconductor chip designer ARM Holdings although has agreed to sell this and is waiting on regulatory approvals, and has a vast portfolio of mainly Internet- and e-commerce-focused early stage investments. It is also general partner of the $100 billion Softbank Vision Fund 1 and sole investor in Softbank Vision Fund 2, both of which primarily invest in pre-IPO Internet companies.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

Hess Corporation (NYSE: HES) Fair Value Up to $72 after Commodity Price Refresh

It is now assumed that oil (West Texas Intermediate) prices in 2021 and 2022 will average $57 per barrel and $67/bbl respectively (previously $55 and $57). That makes the stock look more or less fairly valued at the current price.

At the end of 2020, the company reported net proved reserves of 1.2 billion barrels of oil equivalent. Net production averaged 323 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2020, at a ratio of 70% oil and natural gas liquids and 30% natural gas.

The valuation of the firm’s Guyana assets continues to assume 10 total phases of development, consistent with management commentary. However, we risk the sixth and seventh phases at 75% and the final three at 50% in our base case. Likewise, 220 mb/d capacities for stages 4 and 5, with 180 mb/d peak output for developments 6-10. To give some indication of the upside if Hess and its partner Exxon can continue to execute and deliver the full 10 phases, we also model a scenario with no risk on the later-stage developments, and assume 220 mb/d capacities throughout. In that scenario fair value would be $89 per share.

Company Profile

Hess Corporation (NYSE: HES) is an independent oil and gas producer with key assets in the Bakken Shale, Guyana, the Gulf of Mexico, and Southeast Asia. Hess Corporation is a mining and exploration firm. The Company is involved in the exploration, development, production, transportation, procurement, and sale of crude oil, natural gas liquids (NGL), and natural gas, with operations in the United States, Guyana, the Malaysia/Thailand Joint Development Area, Malaysia, and Denmark. Exploration and Production and Midstream are the Company’s segments. It’s Exploration and Production sector searches for, develops, produces, buys, and sells crude oil, natural gas, and NGLs. The Midstream business provides fee-based services such as crude oil and natural gas gathering, natural gas processing and fractionation of NGLs, crude oil transportation by rail car, terminating and loading crude oil and NGLs.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
ETFs ETFs

Vanguard Australian Shares High Yield ETF

 The benchmark leans toward the highest-dividend payers, excluding property trusts. The index provider ranks all dividend-paying stocks based on their dividend yield forecast for the next year and constructs the index using stocks that make up the top 50% of the floatadjusted market capitalization. Industries are capped at 40% and individual stocks at 10%. The index is rebalanced semiannually, and in 2018, it changed its rules around buying and selling so that stocks are added or removed more gradually. This should increase the portfolio to around 55 names from 45 and reduce stock turnover, though it will likely remain higher than market-cap-weighted index funds. Vanguard’s global presence allows the Australian team to leverage the U.S. team’s extensive indextracking experience.

Portfolio

The FTSE Australia High Dividend Yield Index is a real-time, market-cap-weighted index comprising companies with higher-than-average forecast dividends. The biggest sector exposure is financial services, at around 39%-40% of the portfolio. The fund’s exposure to materials has historically been volatile. Following dividend cuts in the sector, exposure dropped to 4% in 2016 from 20%. However, a fall in Rio Tinto’s share price and corresponding increase in yield saw the stock return to the portfolio in June 2017, increasing the fund’s exposure to the sector to 21%. That came at the expense of industrials exposure, which fell to zero. As of 30 June 2021, materials exposure was at 23%. This highlights the risk of “dividend traps” in a rules-based strategy. The portfolio has an underweighting in the high-growth sectors of technology and healthcare, as these companies typically reinvest a large proportion of their cash flow into research and development to drive future earnings growth rather than focusing on high dividend payouts. Real estate investment trusts are excluded. More than half the portfolio is in giant caps, with the balance mostly in large and medium caps. The portfolio’s exposure to cyclical/sensitive names has increased over the years and currently stands at 93%, implying high dependence on the domestic economic cycle.

Performance

Vanguard has fared relatively well over the long term, but short- and medium-term results have been a drag. Moreover, the annual return track of the strategy is visibly inconsistent as compared with its category index. In 2012 and 2013, the strategy delivered 24.5% and 26.5%, respectively–incredible relative and absolute returns. But investors should be cautiously optimistic about a repeat of such performance as the fund delivered equally subdued relative performance in 2014, followed by a 4.22% decline in 2015 and category benchmark relative underperformance of negative 1.2% in 2016. Poorly timed buys into materials such as BHP and Rio Tinto hurt in 2016. Vanguard recouped some of these losses in 2017, though this was curtailed as exposure to Telstra took a bite out of returns. As the banking industry came under pressure because of falling property prices and the focus of the Royal Commission in 2018, returns were again below the broader market.

Source: Morning star

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.