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Funds Funds

Altius Bond Fund

Our Opinion…

  • Well-resourced, capable and experienced investment team. We regard the CIO and investment team of Altius as very experienced and capable investment managers.
  • We like the total return focus, to protect capital in a rising yield environment. The Manager has an absolute return focus and is looking to protect capital in a rising interest rate environment. Whilst global rates are likely to be lower for longer, a specialist manager that can adequately navigate this risk is highly desirable.
  • Being benchmark unaware requires conviction. We agree that most managers will look to manage their portfolios relative to a benchmark, which leads to risk managed on a relative basis (rather than absolute) and foregoing opportunities to drive alpha. This is where we expect Altius’ investment team to exercise significant investment experience and investment process to deliver superior returns.
  • Scenario analysis critical to the investment process. In our view, the key component of the investment process is the scenario analysis forecasting and building a case for Best Case, Central Case and Worst Case. Putting a well thought-out and researched narrative around each case allows the investment team to answer critical questions and define the macro economic landscape. In our discussions with the team, we broadly agree with their current view under each case and analysis to support it. Whilst agreeing to their view is not so important to us, what we appreciate is the analysis (and logic) and how the narrative was articulated to us. We believe the Manager understands the market and critical drivers.
  • Focus on liquidity management. The Manager embeds risk management in strategy formulation, with the liquidity risk being a key consideration during the security selection process and managed through a 10% buffer of cash-like assets, giving the fund some downside protection from impaired liquidity when credit cycles turn.
Main Details 
APIR CodeWFS0486AU
Asset ClassAustralian Fixed Interest
Inception date14 June 2011
StyleAbsolute Return
Fund Size$133.39m
  Fees (MER)0.46% p.a. + expense recovery
DistributionQuarterly
  
Portfolio Characteristics
    Benchmark  50% Bloomberg AusBond Composite (0+Y) + 50% RBA Cash Rate
  Yield to maturity (%)1.17 (versus 0.58 benchmark)
Modified duration (years)1.91 (versus 3.02 benchmark)

Downside Risks…

  • Interest rate risk (however the Fund’s total return focus should limit this).
  • The Manager gets the thematic and top down view wrong.
  • Key man risk – Bill Bovingdon, Chris Dickman and Gavin Goodhand.
  • Key man risk – Bill Bovingdon, Chris Dickman and Gavin Goodhand.

Source: Altius Asset Management

Fund Performance

Figure 1: Altius Bond Fund historical performance (as at 30 June 2021)

(%)FundBenchmark**Out-performance
1-month-0.16+0.35-0.51
3-months+0.38+0.77-0.39
1-year (p.a.)-0.48-0.32-0.16
3-years (p.a.)+1.53+2.49-0.96
5-year (p.a.)+1.66+2.13-0.47
7-year (p.a.)+2.27+2.73-0.46
10-year (p.a.)+3.53+3.45+0.08
Since inception (p.a.)*+3.54+3.46+0.08

Source: Altius Asset Management; Past performance is not an indicator for future performance. * Inception date for performance calculations is 14 June 2011. ** Effective 1 July 2016, Benchmark is 50% Reserve Bank of Australia Cash Rate and 50% Bloomberg AusBond Composite 0+Yr Index and applied retrospectively for all periods.

Fund Positioning

Figure 2: Fund sector allocation (as at 30 June 2021)

   
 Fund %Benchmark %
Australian Commonwealth Government6.4428.65
Supranational15.064.63
Industrials17.062.08
Financials18.631.50
Asset Backed9.620.00
Agencies10.590.14
11am0.970.00
Cash at Bank0.690.00
RBA Cash0.0050.00
Semi Government20.9513.00

Source: Altius Asset Management

Figure 3: Top 10 holdings (as at 30 June 2021)

   
 Fund %Benchmark %
New South Wales Treasury Corp11.133.09
National Housing Finance & Investment Corp10.600.05
Australian Commonwealth Government6.4428.25
Asian Development Bank4.940.40
Treasury Corp Victoria4.342.78
Queensland Treasury Corp3.283.09
Inter-American Development Bank3.220.33
UBS Ag Australia2.920.04
Intl Bank Reconstruction & Development2.210.35
McDonalds Corp1.890.00

Source: Altius Asset Management

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Global stocks Shares

Square, Inc. has announced plans to acquire Afterpay, which will strengthen and enable stronger collaboration among its seller and cash app ecosystems.

The agreement’s specifics

Square, Inc. and Afterpay Limited confirmed today that they have signed a Scheme Implementation Deed through which Square has come to terms to purchase all of Afterpay’s issued shares through a court-approved Scheme of Arrangement.

Jack Dorsey, the CEO of Twitter, is leading a $29 billion acquisition of Australian Afterpay

The deal is expected to be paid in all stock and has an indicated value of about US$29 billion (A$39 billion) based on the closing price of Square common stock on July 30, 2021. The merger will allow the organizations to achieve more enticing financial goods and services to more clients, as well as boost profits for retailers of all sizes. The deal is expected to close in the first quarter of 2022, depending to the fulfilment of certain closing terms stipulated.

Square’s strategic ambitions for its Seller and Cash App ecosystems will be accelerated by Afterpay, the world’s first worldwide “buy now, pay later” platform. Afterpay will be integrated into Square’s current Seller and Cash App business units, allowing even the tiniest retailers to offer BNPL at checkout, allowing Afterpay consumers to handle their instalment payments directly in Cash App, and allowing Cash App customers to discover merchants and BNPL offers directly within the app.

With such a best-in-class solution and a strong cultural alignment with Square, Afterpay is an industry leader. As of June 30, 2021, Afterpay had over 16 million customers and approximately 100,000 merchants worldwide, including major shops in fashion, home goods, cosmetics, athletic goods, and more.

Customers can buy with control of their finances

Afterpay enables customers to get the products they want and need while also enabling them to stay in control of their finances. Afterpay also helps merchants expand their operations by encouraging repeat purchases, increasing average transaction sizes, and allowing customers to pay over time. Afterpay is dedicated to assisting consumers in spending responsibly without incurring service fees, interest, or revolving debt, and currently supports customers in a number of countries spanning APAC, North America, and Europe (including under its Clearpay brand).

Source: squareup.com

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Global stocks Shares

CNH’s Second-Quarter Results Show Sales Growth Across All Segments; with Agriculture Continuing to Lead Profit Growth.

Looking across CNH’s end markets, we think agriculture demand will continue to be a major driver in the back half of the year. In our view, demand will be supported by strong crop exports to China. This dynamic has been a key reason why crop prices have been relatively high over the past year. Rising crop prices have propelled farmer incomes higher, allowing them to refresh their aging agriculture equipment–a benefit to CNH.

Overall, manufacturing sales reached $8.5 billion in the quarter, up 65% year on year. The strength in the company’s top line was attributable to increased volumes and favorable product mix. In agriculture, tractor sales worldwide were up 28%, compared with the prior-year period. Of that, high horsepower tractors (above 140 horsepower) saw strong volume growth in North America, surging 49% year on year. Combines also contributed to volume growth in the quarter, up 14% worldwide, with extraordinary growth in South America (up 38% year on year). CNH’s gross margins were also strong in the quarter, coming in at 19.3% as higher pricing more than offset cost inflation (due to supply chain constraints).

Company’s Future Outlook

Management reaffirmed its commitment to spinning off the on-highway business (commercial vehicles and power train businesses). Following the spin-off, CNH’s end market exposure will largely be focused on agriculture markets, with the balance in construction markets. We believe this is a good move for the company as the agriculture business has been fairly profitable for CNH. On average, its EBIT margins have been nearly twice the consolidated business’ EBIT margins. We estimate over 80% of EBIT will be coming from agriculture after the spin-off is completed, putting CNH on much better footing from a profitability standpoint.

Company Profile

CNH Industrial is a global manufacturer of heavy machinery, with a range of products including agricultural and construction equipment, commercial vehicles, and power train components. One of its most recognizable brands, Case IH, has served farmers for generations. Its products are available through a robust dealer network, which includes over 3,600 dealer and distribution locations globally. CNH Industrial’s finance arm provides retail financing for equipment and vehicles to its customers, in addition to wholesale financing for dealers; which increases the likelihood of product sales.

 (Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Technology Stocks

Twitter’s Mix of Direct Response and Brand Offerings Continues To Improve

. Twitter is an open distribution platform for (and a conversational one around) short-form text, image, and video content. Its users can access real-time information regarding a wide array of topics or news events. They can also share information and content, interact with content, and express their reactions to other Twitter users. These types of interactions allow Twitter to compile more data about its users, their interests, and their behavior, which is then licensed and/or utilized by Twitter and advertisers to launch online brand and targeted ads.

Product enhancements such as the Explore tab may have helped increase initial user engagement and improve user retention, but the firm’s network effect is weakening considerably as its user base shrinks in size relative to rivals. As the likelihood of Twitter attracting more users via content improvement and increasing focus on more live premium content will probably decline (due to significant competition on both fronts), so will the firm’s access to more user data. As a result, more advertisers will increasingly gravitate toward other platforms that offer better targeting capabilities.

Financial Strength

Twitter reported excellent second-quarter results that exceeded our expectations and the FactSet consensus estimates. In addition, some of the firm’s latest non-ad offerings could gain traction in the long run and slightly reduce dependence on advertising, while contributing a bit to revenue growth. Our higher projections resulted in a $58 fair value estimate, up from $52. We recommend new investors to wait for a margin of safety before investing in Twitter as the stock increased 6% in after-hours, trading at 1.27 times our fair value estimate, and 10 times and 35 times our 2021 sales and adjusted EBITDA projections, respectively.

Twitter posted total revenue of $1.19 billion, up 74% from the pandemic-ridden second quarter of 2020, with ad revenue up 87% to $1.05 billion and data licensing and other revenue up 13% to $137 million. The firm’s user count increased 11% to 206 million, with U.S. and international users up 3% and 13%, respectively. The firm has also begun to help small and medium-size businesses launch direct response campaigns based on location, age, and gender. While we had expected such a feature, referred to as Twitter’s Quick Promote, to be available much earlier, it will still likely attract more advertisers.

The firm generated operating income of $30.3 million (2.5% margin) driven by revenue growth, compared with an operating loss of $273.9 million last year–which included a $150 million fine by the FTC regarding usage of phone numbers and email addresses for target marketing. Management guided for $1.22 billion-$1.3 billion in revenue during the third quarter, and operating losses between zero and $50 million. Twitter expects operating expenses to grow by 30% and revenue growth to exceed that. The firm also expects share-based compensation expense of $600 million and capital expenditure of $900 million-$950 million this year.

Twitter has a strong balance sheet with net cash of $5.9 billion. The firm generates cash from operations, and we expect it to generate free cash flow going forward. Twitter’s free cash flow to equity/revenue ratio averaged 18% over the past three years, and we project this ratio to improve to over 26% in 2025.

Company Profile

Twitter is an open distribution platform for and a conversational platform around short-form text (a maximum of 280 characters), image, and video content. Its users can create different social networks based on their interests, thereby creating an interest graph. Many prominent celebrities and public figures have Twitter accounts. Twitter generates revenue from advertising (90%) and licensing the user data that it compiles (10%).

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
IPO Watch

CarTrade Tech IPO price band fixed at Rs. 1,585 – 1,618to raise Rs. 2,999 crore

On August 6, a day before issue opening, the corporation will open its anchor book, if any, for a day.

The public offering of 1,85,32,216 equity shares is a full offer for current selling shareholders to sell their shares. The total value of the offer is Rs 2,998.51 crore.

Highdell Investment 84,09,364 equity shares, MacRitchie Investments Pte Ltd 50,76,761 equity shares, and Springfield Venture International 17,65,309 equity shares will be sold through the IPO by CMDB II.

Bina Vinod Sanghi (jointly held with Vinay Vinod Sanghi) will sell 1,83,333 equity shares, Daniel Edward Neary will sell 70,000 equity shares, Shree Krishna Trust will sell 2,62,519 equity shares, Victor Anthony Perry III will sell 50,546 equity shares, and Vinay Vinod Sanghi (jointly held with Seena Vinod Sanghi) will sell 4,50,050 equity shares.

Investors can bid for as few as 9 equity shares and as many as 9 equity shares after that.

The company has set aside 50% of the overall offering for eligible institutional purchasers, 35% for retail investors, and the remaining 15% for non-institutional buyers.

With 34.44 percent of the company, Mauritius-based Highdell Investment is the largest shareholder, followed by MacRitchie Investments with 26.48 percent, CMDB II with 11.93 percent, Springfield Venture International with 7.09 percent, and Vinay Vinod Sanghi with 3.56 percent.

CarTrade is a multi-channel auto platform that covers a wide range of vehicle types and add-on services. CarWale, CarTrade, Shriram Automall, BikeWale, CarTrade Exchange, Adroit Auto, and AutoBiz are some of the company’s brands.

The company uses these platforms to make it simple and efficient for new and used car buyers, dealerships, OEMs, and other businesses to buy and sell their automobiles.

(Source: Fact Set)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
IPO Watch

Sweetman Renewables Plans for Its ASX Debut with a Pre-IPO Raise

Sweetman Renewables is aiming for the biomass and green hydrogen industries with a $4 million pre-IPO capital raise ahead of its ASX launch later this year. The listing date is later this week.

With the addition of three divisions covering hydrogen production, biomass supply, and the sale of high-quality timber products, the company hopes to more than tenfold its revenue base.

This potential has already been recognised, with the company recently negotiating a 20-year biomass supply contract with a Japanese conglomerate worth US$90 million.

It is also in advanced talks with Verdant Earth Technologies about becoming the primary supplier of Verdant’s $550 million biomass power project in the Hunter Valley.

Sweetman Renewables intends to raise only $4 million in the pre-IPO round. As a result, Sweetman is trying to leverage its sustainable biomass to manufacture green hydrogen, which Goldman Sachs predicts will be a US$10 trillion market by 2050.

Company Profile

Sweetman Renewables is developing a hydrogen production plan to become one of the largest true green hydrogen producers, leveraging its sawmill operation to offer biomass and green hydrogen for sustainable energy. Using sawmill operations to supply biomass and green hydrogen for long-term energy.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

Range: A Natural Gas company has Ample Free Cash Flows to Devote to Debt Reduction

The downward trajectory of natural gas prices in the last few years has forced Range to focus on cost-cutting. It has been fairly successful at reducing costs over the last few years, and the firm also boasts best-in-class drilling and completion costs. It has not historically been able to generate free cash flow, but this should change in 2021 with higher oil and gas prices and Range shifting its stance to operating in maintenance mode. It has not been as explicit as peers with regards to capital allocation and production targets such as only spending 75% of operating cash flow in any given year.

Financial Strength

Range’s balance sheet is a cause for concern. At the end of the last reporting period the firm had just over $3 billion in long-term debt, resulting in lofty leverage ratios. Debt/capital was 67%. We expect leverage to decline in 2021 with free cash flow generation, but Range needs to do more (asset sales, partnerships) to ensure its balance sheet remains in a prudent position on a more sustainable basis. We expect leverage to fall to below 1.5 times in late 2022 given expected free cash flows. We expect Range to generate free cash flow in 2021 with the recent increase in oil and gas prices. This should allow it to make progress on debt reduction. The firm also has about $1.9 billion available on its revolving credit facility for additional flexibility, so there is a reasonable liquidity buffer. But it would be unwise to heavily utilize this revolver, as it would leave the firm with nothing in reserve. Besides, the capacity of this revolver is subject to periodic redetermination and could come down if lenders get worried about the firm’s ability to service its obligations

Bull Says

  • As an early entrant into the Marcellus, Range has a big, blocky acreage position that allows for longer lateral drilling, decreasing capital costs per unit of production.
  • Range’s capacity on the Mariner East 2 pipeline gives it access to international NGL markets, supporting realized prices.
  • The firm enjoys peer-leading drilling and completion costs per thousand lateral feet.

Company Profile

Fort Worth-based Range Resources is an independent exploration and Production Company with that focuses entirely on its operations in the Marcellus Shale in Pennsylvania. At year-end 2020, Range’s proved reserves totaled 17.2 trillion cubic feet equivalent, with net production of 2.2 billion cubic feet equivalent per day. Natural gas accounted for 70% of production.

 (Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

Soggy Outlook from Origin

Despite considerably higher power forward prices, operating earnings (EBITDA) are expected to drop -36-56 percent in FY22, according to the projection.

Credit Suisse believes the energy market downgrade cycle will be complete if consensus converges on the company’s FY23 guidance range, albeit it retains its lower-end predictions.

For the first time, guidance for FY22 and FY23 energy markets was issued alongside the June quarter report. FY22 EBITDA is expected to be $450-600 million, while FY23 is expected to be $600-850 million.

According to Goldman Sachs, FY22 was always going to be a low point for energy markets, but the outlook was worse than projected. While margins may be constrained in FY22, they should rebound in the following years.

The APLNG joint venture, which continues to succeed, was the only bright spot in the update for brokers. APLNG production in the June quarter was 173 PJ, bringing the year total to 701 PJ. The payout to Origin Energy for FY21 is $709 million, which is broadly in line with forecasts, but, as Macquarie points out, this is where the announcement’s good elements end.

Morgan feels that the downgrade to energy markets is more than offset by the higher projected prices obtained by APLNG in the short term, and so raises its oil price assumptions, resulting in an upgrade to integrated gas profits forecasts.

Retail prices and wholesale purchase costs have largely been determined, according to the broker, thus there is limited possibility for energy market earnings to rise in FY22. Higher market prices and volatility are expected to pass through to higher consumer pricing in FY23. Overall, Morgan feels the market undervalues the combination of electricity and LNG risk.

(Source: Fact Set)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
LICs LICs

Geoff Wilson claims first victory in his new LIC WAR

Wilson was in the United States on business when he began seeing Templeton reported as suggesting that now was the moment to invest 10% of your income in stocks, rather than avoiding them.

The chairman of the Wilson Asset Management listed investment company (LIC) empire says he’s a little sad to see the Templeton brand fade away from the ASX boards, 34 years after it first appeared in the 1987 upheaval.

But it’s not all bad: he’s basically buying out the Templeton Global Growth Fund, which will merge with Wilson’s WAM Global LIC.

Wilson has been following TGG since 2015, when WAM first purchased shares in the LIC, and has slowly raised its holdings to 14.6 percent.

The investment was transferred to the new WAM Strategic Value LIC, which debuted on 26 July and trades under the symbol WAR. The new LIC aspires to boost returns by assisting under-appreciated LICs in closing the gap between their net tangible asset values and share prices.

Wilson claims that WAM has been working with the TGG board for some time on strategies to close the gap between its stock price and NTA’s, including appointing an independent person to the board. TGG launched a strategic assessment of its structure late last year, and while Wilson claims WAM was startled by the board’s decision, WAM hasn’t been sitting on its hands.

For the first time in seven years, TGG investors will be able to withdraw money from NTA. However, if TGG investors chose WAM Global stock, Wilson’s LIC’s assets will increase by around $300 million, putting it among the largest LICs focusing on overseas shares on the ASX and putting it on the radar of additional investors and financial advisors.

Wilson’s WAM Global, which went public in 2018, was a work in progress. While it still trades at a 6.4 percent discount to NTA – one of the few WAM LICs to do so – the spread has decreased in the last two years, and Wilson is hoping that increased scale will help WAM Global break through.

(Source: Fact Set)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Currencies Trading Ideas & Charts

Crypto Market Logs in 3.5% Drop in Trade, Bitcoin Sheds Weekly Gains

Despite strong optimistic sentiments, Bitcoin (BTC) experienced corrections at the start of the week, falling by 6% as of 9 a.m. IST to close at $39,700.

BTC stayed above $41,000 for the majority of the day until being dragged down by the bears in the early hours of Monday. If the downturn continues, BTC may shortly test its first support at $39,000.

BTC trade volume surged by more than 7% across all exchanges.

Ethereum (ETH) was down 0.8% this week, although it maintained its gains from the previous week. It closed at $2,560, slightly over the $2,530 barrier mark. It is developing support levels at $2,330 and $2,250.

Polygon (MATIC), Stellar (XLM), and Theta (THETA) are among the major altcoins that have lost 5-7 percent in the last 24 hours, while others have lost 3-4 percent.

BTC is expected to bounce back from its present support level of $42,000 this week, with the 20-week moving average being tested afterwards. If BTC maintains its position, ETH’s hard fork, which went live on August 4, should continue to fuel momentum in the larger altcoin market.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.