Powered by store openings and retail expansion in the 2010-15 period, Michael Kors became one of the largest American handbag producers in sales and units. However, over the past five years, growth has stalled due to markdowns of bags at third-party retail and declining sales at company-owned stores. While Capri has reduced distribution to limit discounting of Michael Kors bags, competition in the American handbag market is fierce and growth is limited. Moreover, the company is in the process of closing more than 100 Michael Kors stores.
Capri spent a steep $3.4 billion to purchase Jimmy Choo and Versace to boost its status as a luxury house and reduce its dependence on Michael Kors. However, we do not think these deals have changed Capri’s no-moat status as the acquired brands have more fashion risk, less profitability, and narrower appeal than Michael Kors. Capri is investing in store remodels, store openings, and expanding the set of accessories for both Jimmy Choo and Versace, but we don’t think these efforts will yield the intended gains, particularly given the severe interruption we expect from COVID-19.
We believe Michael Kors lacks the brand strength (and ultimately pricing power) to provide an economic moat for Capri, rating poorly on the criteria that Morningstar uses to evaluate luxury brands, in contrast to others such as narrow-moat Tapestry’s Coach.
Financial Strength
Capri has debt, but it is very manageable. At the end of June 2021, it had total shortand long-term debt of $1.3 billion, but it also had more than $350 million in cash. Capri, though, has $1.3 billion in available borrowing capacity it amended its revolving and term loan credit agreement.Thus, Capri has no significant debt maturities prior to 2023. Capri has also recently modified its debt covenants, allowing a maximum leverage ratio of 3.75 times. Its debt/adjusted EBITDA was 2.3 times at the end of fiscal 2021, and we forecast this will decline to 1.2 times at the end of fiscal 2022. The firm averaged more than $500 million in annual buybacks in fiscal 2015-20. We now forecast its share repurchases at an annual average of about $630 million over the next decade. However, Capri does not pay dividends. We forecast its fiscal 2021 capital expenditures will rise to $205 million (3.9% of sales) from just $111 million (2.7% of sales) last year. Long term, we forecast Capri’s annual capital expenditures as a percentage of sales at 4.3% as management works to improve the performance at Jimmy Choo and Versace.
Bulls Say
- Michael Kors is one of the largest brands in terms of units and sales in the high-margin handbag market, and we think this positioning should aid its prospects as it looks to grow in complementary categories like footwear.
- Michael Kors has reduced its dependence on wholesale customers, which we view favorably as increased direct-to-consumer sales allow for better pricing and control over marketing.
- The acquisitions of Jimmy Choo and Versace afford diversification opportunities by bringing two luxury brands that maintain products with high price points into the fold.
Company Profile
Michael Kors, Versace, and Jimmy Choo are the brands that comprise Capri Holdings. Capri markets, distributes, and retails upscale accessories and apparel. Michael Kors, Capri’s largest and original brand, offers handbags, footwear, and apparel through more than 800 company-owned stores, third-party retailers, and e-commerce. Milan-based Versace (acquired in 2018) is known for its ready-to-wear luxury fashion. Jimmy Choo (acquired in 2017) is best known for women’s luxury footwear. John Idol has served as CEO since he was part of a group that acquired Michael Kors in 2003.
(Source: Morningstar)
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Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.