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Australian Market Outlook – 01 March 2022

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Betashares Western Asset Australian Bond Fund ETF: Diversified Portfolio

Process:

The philosophy of the team is to identify mispricing within sectors and securities, allocating active risk in areas in which it has conviction while ensuring the portfolio remains diversified to avoid singular themes being pervasive through the portfolio. The team takes account of global macro insight from the global investment strategy committee and overlays its domestic market knowledge to come up with a base-case expectation looking forward six to nine months depending upon its conviction. In addition to this, the team develops multiple upside and downside scenarios as a risk-management framework. Based on the base case, the team engages in quantitative and qualitative analysis to determine sector allocation. The quant component is where the team will look at historical and relative spread comparison within and across sectors. The outcomes of this analysis are then overlaid by qualitative insight considering technical demand, credit, and liquidity dynamics. The culmination of this analysis in conjunction with the base-case expectation guides the actual portfolio positions. The fund looks to invest across government, semi government, supranational, credit, inflation-linked bonds, securitised assets, and cash. The team is clear about allocating only active positions where it has a high degree of conviction and an expected positive reward profile. Holdings are disclosed daily. BNDS runs as a separate vehicle to the flagship unlisted fund and has some additional restrictions on the amount of residential mortgage-backed securities it can hold owing to requirements on holdings being issued by a listed entity.

Portfolio:

The portfolio can invest across government, semi government, supranational, credit, securitised assets, inflation-linked bonds, and cash. As of November 2021, more than 40% of the portfolio was invested in investment-grade corporate bonds, around 25% in semi government issues, 20% in government, 10% in supranational, with a small amount of mortgage-backed and asset-backed securities. This allocation has been relatively consistent over time, and cash levels have been low, generally a few percentage points, even in times of stress like the early-2020 market plummet. Relative to the Bloomberg AusBond Composite Index, the fund has been long underweight in government bonds, choosing instead to invest more broadly across spread assets. Given the fund’s constraints, the overall portfolio remains high-quality, with 35% of assets in AAA rated issues, no allocation below investment-grade, and a weighted average credit rating of AA-. Portfolio manager Anthony Kirkham and the Western team have historically been opportunistic within their mandate, though duration is kept within plus or minus 1.0 year relative to the benchmark. Active duration moved short relative to the benchmark around mid-2021 but came back in line with the index around yearend. Like most Australian bond managers, they entered 2021 overweight in credit, indicative of their opportunistic profile. Susquehanna Financial Group is the primary market maker, and bid-ask spreads have remained respectable over its relatively short life, moderately higher than passive Australian bond ETFs, which is to be expected. This vehicle contained about AUD 190 million in February 2022 and can be used as a core defensive allocation.

People:

The fund is managed by a seasoned team of investors who remain dedicated to this strategy. The team is led by Anthony Kirkham, who has had more than 30 years of wider experience, including nearly two decades at Western Asset Management, and leading this strategy since 2002. Kirkham has credit analyst, dealer, and portfolio manager experience working for Commonwealth Bank, Metway Bank, RACV Investments, and Citigroup. He is supported by Damon Shinnick, who is a portfolio manager with a focus on credit portfolios. Shinnick has 22 years of experience within the industry including 11 years at the firm. Shinnick has also held an array of portfolio manager roles previously at Challenger Financial, Lehman Brothers, Pension Corporation LLP, and HSBC. Craig Jendra is also a key member of the team, joining Western in 1996 and being promoted to portfolio manager in 2000. Jendra has 25 years of industry experience with previous roles at Citigroup and JPMorgan. The three portfolio managers are supported by analyst Sean Rogan, who joined in 2002 and has 32 years’ industry experience; dedicated investment dealer Anthony Francis; and portfolio analyst Lawrence Daly, who ensures risk characteristics are maintained and adhered to. Together, the group boasts more than 25 years’ industry experience and is among the most impressive in its peer group.

Performance:

BNDS began in November 2018. It has closely tracked its equivalent unlisted fund strategy, Western Asset Australian Bond, over that span. The long-running unlisted fund has done well over the long term, especially compared with peers. It has delivered returns above the Bloomberg AusBond Composite Index, net of fees, over the past decade. That is ahead of its target return of 75 basis points (gross of fees) over the benchmark and market cycle. A tracking error of 100 basis points is targeted. Perhaps more impressive, though, is that these results put the strategy’s flagship A share class in the first quartile of its Morningstar Category over the trailing three, five, and 10 years to December 2021. Sector allocations and credit exposure continue to drive performance. Most of the outperformance has stemmed from the fund’s allocation to higher-spread assets in lieu of government bonds, especially credit. To put this into context, the portfolio has had around 40%-50%exposure within credit since 2002. Adding the strategy’s allocation to supranationals to the mix, this exposure goes up to almost 60%. While this increases the strategy’s exposure to wider credit spreads, it remains high quality, and the majority of it is shorter-dated to control for spread risk. Owing to the mandate restrictions, the fund can’t and doesn’t take large-duration bets. Duration was the second largest contributor to the portfolio in 2021, but has been a small negative attributor over the long term, largely a result of the fund’s short-duration bias in an environment of shrinking bond yields.

Graphical user interface, table

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(Source: Morningstar)

Price:

It’s critical to evaluate expenses, as they come directly out of returns. The share class on this report levies a fee that ranks in its Morningstar category’s middle quintile. That’s not great, but based on our assessment of the fund’s People, Process and Parent pillars in the context of these fees, we think this share class will still be able to deliver positive alpha relative to the category benchmark index, explaining its Morningstar Analyst Rating of Silver.

Table

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(Source : Morningstar)

About Funds:

BetaShares Western Asset Aus Bd ETF BNDS is a compelling choice for domestic fixed-interest exposure owing to its best-in-class team and straightforward approach. BNDS provides daily holdings to the market and has grown steadily since it began in November 2018 with active external market makers. Anthony Kirkham, head of investment/portfolio manager, is the leader of this strategy, and we have high regard for his investment knowledge and skills. Kirkham is supported by an experienced investment team, consisting of Craig Jendra and Damon Shinnick, co-portfolio managers, and Sean Rogan, research analyst. The stability of this group and quality of the research are impressive. There’s appeal to the strategy’s simplistic and relatively conservative investment process, which seeks mispriced domestic fixed-interest securities within various sectors. Sector and issuer limits are applied to help damp volatility in different environments. Still, sector allocation and issuer selection has been strong over the past decade, emphasising the team’s rigourous analysis in these areas. However, this can be a hindrance if yields rise unexpectedly. That said, the portfolio’s active duration was moved around judiciously and contributed strongly in 2021, a testament to the team’s ability to interpret and capitalise on shifting economic conditions. The track record here has also been consistent and solid over multiple time frames, and the annual 0.42% fee is competitive relative to peer

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.