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Daily Report Financial Markets

USA Market Outlook – 01 August 2022

Categories
Global stocks

Equifax to focus on expanding use cases of income verification beyond mortgage to auto, card, and government service

Business Strategy and Outlook 

Along with TransUnion and Experian, Equifax is one of the big three credit bureaus. Given the fixed costs inherent in a data-intensive business, Equifax has been able to enjoy strong operating leverage from incremental revenue. As the U.S. credit bureau market is relatively mature, the company has been adding new capabilities and expanding its geographic footprint, both organically and through acquisitions. As an example of its bolt-on acquisition strategy, Equifax announced in January 2021 that it will acquire e-commerce fraud prevention platform Kount for $640 million. Kount builds on Equifax’s existing antifraud products and acquiring unique data and software assets makes sense.

Equifax’s star in recent years has been its workforce solutions segment, which is now its largest segment. Workforce solutions include income verification (primarily for mortgages), and don’t expect Equifax has meaningful direct competition for this service. Equifax’s competitive position to persist as the large amount of existing records and the difficulty of convincing employers to share employee information would be too tough for new entrants to overcome. In the years ahead, Equifax is to focus on expanding use cases of income verification beyond mortgage to auto, card, and government services. Workforce solutions also includes employers’ services, which consist of employee onboarding solutions, I-9 management, tax form services, and unemployment claims processing. Growth by acquisition in Workforce Solutions has also been a focus, most notably with its $1.8 billion deal to buy Appriss Insights. Equifax’s reputation took a beating after a well-publicized data breach in September 2017. This wasn’t the first time Equifax suffered a data breach; however, the depth and the breadth of the breach created ire among the public and showed that the company wasn’t prepared to handle customers’ data securely. Following the breach, Equifax has invested heavily in cybersecurity and incurred significant legal and product liability costs. Equifax has largely put the episode behind it.

Financial Strength

Equifax management has historically been reasonably conservative with the balance sheet, with leverage ratios (net debt/adjusted EBITDA) between 1.5 and 3.0 times in the past several years. Management has shown a willingness to increase debt after an acquisition. Following the acquisition of Veda in 2016, the leverage ratio went to 3.5 times, but the firm quickly paid some of its debt to reduce leverage. Following the data breach in 2017, leverage increased as the firm incurred significant costs related to the breach. At the end of 2021, Equifax disclosed that it had $4.5 billion in long-term debt and $0.2 billion of cash. On a net leverage basis, Equifax’s leverage at the end of the fourth quarter of 2021 was about 2.5 times. Given this and the fact that a significant subset of the company’s business is either not very economically sensitive or countercyclical, Equifax is on strong financial footing amid the coronavirus-induced macroeconomic uncertainty.

Bulls Say’s

  • The workforce solutions segment is a fast-growing business built on unique data and can contribute meaningfully to earnings growth. Equifax can increase use cases in non mortgage applications for income verification. 
  • Equifax’s business lines are capital-light, and incremental revenue tends to flow to the bottom line, generating high returns on invested capital and operating margin expansion. 
  • Equifax’s acquisitions can further solidify its moat and diversify its lines of business.

Company Profile 

Along with Experian and TransUnion, Equifax is one of the leading credit bureaus in the United States. Equifax’s credit reports provide credit histories on millions of consumers, and the firm’s services are critical to lenders’ credit decisions. In addition, about a third of the firm’s revenue comes from workforce solutions, which provides income verification and employer human resources services. Equifax generates over 20% of its revenue from outside the United States.

(Source: MorningStar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice. The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do, business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities. Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and is not liable for any unintentional errors in the document. The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Global stocks Shares

United Airlines will participate in the recovery of business and international leisure travel in 2022 and 2023

Business Strategy and Outlook 

United Airlines is the most internationally focused U.S.-based carrier by operating revenue, with almost 40% of 2019 revenue coming from international activities. Before the coronavirus pandemic, much of the company’s story focused on realizing cost efficiencies to expand margins. In the leisure market, United is to continue receiving yield pressure from low-cost carriers. While its basic economy offering effectively serves the leisure market, don’t expect the firm to thrive in this segment. United’s international routes will not be as pressured, but that international flights will be difficult to fill until border restrictions are lifted.

United Airlines will participate in the recovery of business and international leisure travel in 2022 and 2023. A recovery in business travel will be critical for United to maintain the attractive economics of the frequent-flier program. Business travellers will often use miles from a cobranded credit card to upgrade flights when their company is unwilling to pay a premium price. Banks are willing to pay top dollar for these frequent-flier miles, which provides a high-margin income stream to United. The COVID-19 pandemic has presented airlines with the sharpest demand shock in history, and much of the projections are based on assumptions around how illness and vaccinations affect society. A full recovery is expected in capacity and an 80%-90% recovery in business travel that subsequently grows at GDP levels over the medium term. United has considerably greater regulatory uncertainty than peer carriers due to its increased exposure to international travel, and summer of 2022 will be a critical test of international travel recovery for United.

Financial Strength

United has a roughly average debt burden relative to peer U.S. carriers, but an average airline balance sheet is not strong in absolute terms. United carries a large amount of debt, comparatively thin margins, and substantial revenue uncertainty. As the pandemic has wreaked havoc on air travel demand and airlines’ business models, liquidity has become more important than in recent years. The primary risks to airline investors are increased leverage and equity dilution as airlines look to bolster solvency while demand is in the doldrums. United’s priority after the pandemic will be deleveraging the balance sheet, but this will take several years because of the firm’s thin margins. United came into the pandemic with a reasonable amount of debt, with the gross debt/EBITDA ratio sitting at roughly 4.5 times in 2019. United, like all airlines, has materially increased its leverage since February 2020 and has issued debt and received support from the government to survive a previously unfathomable decline in air traffic. As of the fourth quarter of 2021, United has $33.4 billion of debt and $18.3 billion of cash on the balance sheet. Roughly break-even levels of profitability are in 2022 and profitability in 2023 and beyond, there is no leverage to increase considerably from here on out.

Bulls Say’s

  • United has renewed its frequent-flier partnership with Chase, potentially creating room for long-term margin expansion.
  • An increasing focus on capacity restraint across the industry, combined with structurally lower fuel prices, should boost airlines’ financial performance over the medium term. 
  • Leisure travellers have become more comfortable with flying during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Company Profile 

United Airlines is a major U.S. network carrier. United’s hubs include San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Denver, Los Angeles, New York/Newark, and Washington, D.C. United operates a hub-and-spoke system that is more focused on international travel than legacy peers.

 (Source: MorningStar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice. The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do, business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities. Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and is not liable for any unintentional errors in the document. The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Global stocks

Sherwin-Williams is the largest provider of architectural paint in the United States

Business Strategy & Outlook

Sherwin-Williams is the largest provider of architectural paint in the United States. The company has approximately 4,800 stores and sells premium paint at higher price points than most competitors. Sherwin-Williams also sells its products in big-box stores and provides coatings for original equipment manufacturers. More than three fourths of Sherwin’s business occur in North America, with much of its international exposure acquired during the 2016 purchase of Valspar. The acquisition of Valspar has bolstered its previously modest retail presence, as Valspar’s long-standing relationship with Lowe’s led to an exclusive partnership for Sherwin in 2018. Sherwin also obtained Valspar’s industrial business, expanding its performance coatings segment. 

In Sherwin’s largest segment, the Americas group, it has maintained strong growth, even in developed markets, as it rolls out nearly 100 new stores every year throughout the Americas. Its strategic focus on building this segment has created a strong value proposition for contractors. Jobsite delivery, in-app ordering, and a capacity for high-volume orders save time for customers and allows for premium product pricing. Roughly 90% of sales in the Americas group are to professional painters with the remaining 10% to do-it-yourself consumers. The consumer brands segment markets Sherwin’s paint brands through retail channels, such as Menards, and is the exclusive provider of coating products to Lowe’s. It owns a variety of widely known brands such as Valspar, Purdy, Minwax, Krylon, Thompson’s WaterSeal, and Dutch Boy. The performance coatings business produces a diverse product mix and accounts for much of the firm’s global exposure. The segment sells everything from marine paints to airplane and fire-resistant coatings, many of which are custom-formulated to suit client needs.

Financial Strengths

The Sherwin-Williams has a sound capital structure, and its consistent free cash flow generation should easily support its debt-service requirements and future capital-allocation decisions. The firm’s leverage increased following its 2016 acquisition of Valspar. Management has made progress in reducing its debt, with net debt/EBITDA coming down to roughly 3.0 from 4.4 in 2017. Following Sherwin’s acquisition of Valspar and PPG’s 2018 acquisition of Comex, there are few North American paint companies that could be potential acquisition targets for Sherwin. One doesn’t anticipate Sherwin will make any sizable acquisitions in the near future as the firm focuses on its retail stores and Lowe’s partnership. Sherwin leverages its commercial paper program and credit facilities to fund a portion of its working capital and expenses. Because of this, the firm usually has less than $250 million of cash on hand. The firm has roughly $8 billion in outstanding debt with staggered maturities through 2052, but its next maturity isn’t until 2024 when roughly $500 million is due. Sherwin-Williams has a history of strong free cash flow generation, even in a downturn, which demonstrates the durability of its business model.

Bulls Say

  • Professional painters have favored Sherwin products for decades, leading to strong brand loyalty and pricing power. 
  • New residential construction and increased rental properties should provide strong tailwinds for residential coatings growth. 
  • The exclusive partnership with Lowe’s creates an additional avenue for Sherwin to sell its products to new customers without meaningful cannibalization risk.

Company Description

Sherwin-Williams is the largest provider of architectural paint in the United States. The company has approximately 4,800 stores and sells premium paint at higher price points than most competitors. Sherwin-Williams also sells paint-related products in big-box stores and provides coatings for original equipment manufacturers.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Global stocks

Waste Management Continues to Exert Strong Pricing Power; Raises 2022 Guidance

Business Strategy & Outlook

Waste industry leader Waste Management enjoys leading market share and unmatched dominance in landfill ownership, which is nearly impossible to replicate given immense regulatory hurdles. This leadership position expanded after the firm’s October 2020 acquisition of Advanced Disposal, which had been the fourth-largest publicly traded waste collection and disposal company in the United States. As a fully integrated waste-hauler, the company leverages a vast network of collection routes and transfer stations, which bestow significant control over the waste stream, funneling waste from numerous end-market customers (commercial, industrial, and residential) into its highly valuable landfill assets. Waste Management collects fees (known as tipping fees) from third-party waste haulers that use the firm’s transfer stations and landfills.

Management execution has been impressive over the past five-plus years, with a renewed focus on yield management and optimizing the cost infrastructure, including the divestiture of noncore waste-to-energy assets. These factors have enabled the firm to translate North American macroeconomic expansion into waste volume gains, core pricing above inflation, and positive operating leverage. Waste Management’s recycling business was adversely affected by China’s import restrictions, which pressured recycled commodity prices. However, Waste Management has made efforts to reduce contamination rates and transition to a fee-for-service model, which has helped mitigate these headwinds. The Waste Management to continue its acquisition strategy, focusing on tuck-in opportunities to boost market share in established geographies. Its ability to raise core prices on acquired volume (thanks to its vast ownership of landfills, a preferred asset) should remain a key organic growth driver.

Financial Strengths

At the end of Waste Management’s fiscal second-quarter 2022, the firm had $14.3 billion of outstanding debt and $894 million of cash, which represents a gross debt/2022 estimated EBITDA ratio of about 2.6. Management’s targeted leverage ratio is 2.5-3. While Waste Management has a significant amount of outstanding debt, the firm generates strong and stable free cash flow, so one was not concerned about the firm’s ability to service its debt. Indeed, between 2022 and 2026, the firm will generate $13 billion of cumulative free cash flow. The firm will use excess cash to make bolt-on acquisitions, fund its growing dividend, and repurchase shares.

Bulls Say

  • Waste Management has a stable business model and enjoys a wide economic moat rooted in intangible assets (regulatory permits for landfills) and cost advantages (route density). 
  • Management has successfully streamlined the firm’s cost infrastructure, optimized the efficiency of collection operations, and improved pricing execution in the core traditional solid waste business. 
  • Significant investments are planned for renewable energy generation and recycling projects. These projects should support stronger earnings and free cash flow growth and raise the firm’s already strong ESG profile.

Company Description

Waste Management ranks as the largest integrated provider of traditional solid waste services in the United States, operating approximately 260 active landfills and about 340 transfer stations. The company serves residential, commercial, and industrial end markets and is also a leading recycler in North America.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Daily Report Financial Markets

USA Market Outlook – 29 July 2022

Categories
Global stocks

American Airlines is the largest U.S.-based carrier by capacity

Business Strategy & Outlook

American Airlines is the largest U.S.-based carrier by capacity. Before the coronavirus pandemic, much of the company’s story was based on realizing cost efficiencies from its transformational 2013 merger with U.S. Airways and strengthening its hubs to expand margins. While American Airlines has done a good job at limiting unit cost increases, it has been noted that the firm lagged peers in unit costs over the previous aviation cycle. Management sees the pandemic crisis as an opportunity to structurally improve the firm’s cost position relative to peers. The American will become more efficient from the crisis, but one cannot be as confident that it will improve its relative position among airlines. In the leisure market, the low-cost carriers prevent American Airlines from increasing yields with inflation. While the American’s basic economy offering effectively serves the leisure market, one doesn’t expect the firm to thrive in this segment. It is expecting a leisure-led recovery in commercial aviation, reflecting customers being more willing to visit friends and family and vacation in a pandemic than they are to go on business travel. 

The American Airlines will participate in the recovery of business and international leisure travel now that a vaccine for COVID-19 is available. A recovery in business travel will be critical for American, as the firm’s high-margin frequent-flier program is closely tied to business travel. Business travelers will often use miles from a co-branded credit card to upgrade flights when their company is unwilling to pay a premium price. Banks pay top dollar for frequent-flier miles, which gives American a high-margin income stream. The COVID-19 pandemic presented airlines with the sharpest demand shock in history, and much of is based on assumptions around how illness and vaccinations affect society. A full recovery in capacity and an 80%-90% recovery in business travel that subsequently grows at GDP levels over the medium term. Air travel demand has recovered sharply, but labor constraints have prevented airlines from fully meeting demand.

Financial Strengths

American is the most leveraged U.S.-based major airline due to its fleet renewal program and the COVID-19 pandemic. As the pandemic wreaked havoc on air travel demand and airlines’ business model, liquidity became more important in 2020 than in recent years. American Airlines, more than peers, increased leverage and diluted equity during the pandemic. The American Airlines’ comparably higher financial leverage will make it difficult for the firm to maneuver going forward, and that management will have few capital allocation options other than deleveraging post-pandemic. American Airlines came into the crisis with considerably more debt than peers, with gross debt/EBITDA sitting at roughly 4.5 times in 2019. American ended 2021 with $38.1 billion of debt and $13.4 billion of cash. It will use incremental free cash flow to deleverage after the crisis. The EBITDA expansion and debt reductions will reduce gross debt/EBITDA to roughly 2-3 turns in the 2025-26-time frame. The firm has $2.6 billion of debt coming due in 2022, and it will use cash on the balance sheet to pay that.

Bulls Say

  • American Airlines has the youngest fleet among U.S. major airlines, which should damp fuel expense and maintenance going forward. 
  • American Airlines has largely completed its fleet renewal, which should decrease capital expenditures going forward. 
  • Demand for air travel has recovered sharply from the COVID-19 pandemic.

Company Description

American Airlines is the world’s largest airline by scheduled revenue passenger miles. The firm’s major hubs are Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas/Fort Worth, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, Philadelphia, Phoenix, and Washington, D.C. After completing a major fleet renewal, the company has the youngest fleet of U.S. legacy carriers.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Daily Report Financial Markets

USA Market Outlook – 28 July 2022

Categories
Daily Report Financial Markets

USA Market Outlook – 27 July 2022

Categories
Daily Report Financial Markets

USA Market Outlook – 26 July 2022