Tag: Japan Market

and JPY 5,000 for Sompo Holdings (7% upside) after the three Japanese general insurers reported strong results for April-June, the first quarter in the fiscal year ending March 2022. The shares have risen 4%, 7%, and 13%, respectively, since we published a 51-page report “Pandemic Impact on Japanese Insurers Has Passed” on June 30. 

Economic profit for April-June reached 39% of full-year guidance for Tokio Marine, 48% for MS&AD, and 43% for Sompo, while net profit on a financial accounting basis was 51% of full-year guidance for Tokio Marine, 52% for MS&AD, and 46% for Sompo.  The insurers have thus earned more than 40% of their full-year guidance in the first three months of the year; however, any upward revisions to guidance would likely come later in the year given that insurers’ quarterly earnings are subject to short-term fluctuations from seasonality and technical factors.

The main driver of the stronger-than-expected results was the core domestic nonlife business, which benefited from a continued lower frequency of auto accidents, adjustments to pricing in the voluntary auto line (though we expect price cuts ahead), and robust rate hikes in fire insurance to address rising costs from water leakage and damage. 

Rate hikes in overseas insurance as the global market hardens were a secondary driver. The safe completion of the Tokyo Olympics confirms that potential large losses that might have occurred had the event been canceled are no longer a concern.

Company Profile

Dating back to 1879, Tokio Marine is Japan’s oldest insurance company and was its top property and casualty insurer in terms of market share for many decades. After mergers of its smaller rivals in the past few years, the company is now roughly the same size in the domestic nonlife market as MS&AD and Sompo Holdings, but it remains the most valuable listed Japanese insurer in terms of market capitalization due to its larger overseas business portfolio. The majority of its overseas business is in the U.S., where it has purchased four specialty insurers since 2008: Philadelphia Consolidated, Delphi Financial, HCC, and PURE. It is a member of the Mitsubishi keiretsu group and holds minority stakes in a number of group companies that also rank among its shareholders.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

• Market leading position and room for further consolidation. TSMC’s significant expenditure on R&D should help it maintain this leadership position.
• TSMC is leading the race in developing the new age of semiconductor chips such as Logic Technology, with thinner wafers being developed every year.
• High barriers to entry – significant level of capital and know-how required to start a semiconductor business.
• Independent and pure-play focus on manufacturing without marketing or branding of product eliminates conflict of interest with customers.

Key Risks

We identify the following key risks to investment thesis:

• Moderating global economic growth, especially in the U.S. and China.
• Trade tensions between the U.S. and China.
• Operational risks such as suboptimal manufacturing quality of products e.g. Fab14B photo incident.
• Softening smartphone sales and production. There may be a time-lag before the layout of 5G and AI materialize into sales for TSMC, e.g. regulatory restrictions.
• Increasing commodity prices and difficulty for TSMC to improve margins. 
• Unfavorable exchange rate movements between NT$ and currencies used in transactions (however, TSMC utilizes hedging strategies to manage this risk).

Management Outlook:

Forecasting strong demand for industry-leading 5nm and 7nm technologies, driven by all four growth platforms (smartphone, HPC, IoT and Automotive-related applications), anticipating 3Q21 revenue of US$14.6-14.9bn, and gross profit margin of 49.5-51.5% and operating profit margin of 38.5-40.5% (based on the exchange rate assumption of 1 US dollar to 27.9 NT dollars). Mr. C. C. Wei (CEO) noted, “For FY21, we now forecast the overall semiconductor market excluding memory to grow about 17%, while foundry industry growth is forecast to be about 20%, and remain confident we can outperform the foundry revenue growth and grow above 20% in 2021 in US$…we now expect our long-term revenue CAGR from 2020 to 2025 to be near the high end of our 10-15% CAGR range in US$…however, in the near term, we continue to observe both short-term imbalances in the supply chain driven by the need to ensure supply security as well as a structural increase in long-term demand, and while the short-term imbalance may or may not persist, we expect our capacity to remain tied throughout the year and into 2022, fuelled by strong demand for our industry-leading advanced and special technologies.”

Company Description  

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSMC), together with its subsidiaries, engages in manufacturing, selling, packaging, testing, and computer-aided design of integrated circuits and other semiconductor devices. Based in Taiwan, the company manufactures masks and electronic spare parts; researches, develops, designs, manufactures, sells, packages, and tests colour filters; and offers customer and engineering support services. TSMC is the largest semiconductor manufacturing foundry in the world.

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.