Categories
Dividend Stocks Philosophy Technical Picks

Downer Produces the Cash in Fiscal 2021 & No Change In AUD 6.00 FVE.

somewhat below our AUD 228 million expectations, though not meaningfully so. Operating costs were a bit higher than expected. But net operating cash flow rebounded strongly to above expectations AUD 708 million versus just AUD 179 million in the PCP. Higher cash conversion and favorable working capital moves assisted this.

Downer paid a slightly higher than expected final dividend of AUD 12 cents, bringing the full year to an unfranked AUD 21 cents on a 73% payout, an effective yield of 3.6% at the current share price. Government is getting bigger and it is spending more. State governments have allocated AUD 225 billion for infrastructure over the next four years and the NZ Government is also increasing infrastructure expenditure.

There is a strong macro outlook for Downer. The company can now be expected to consolidate its urban services position, the EC&M book in run-off and mining being exited. Its end markets are now substantially in essential services in transport, utilities, and facilities. 

Company’s Future Outlook

Downer expects its core urban services segments to continue to grow in fiscal 2022 but, given the changing nature of the pandemic and the ongoing COVID-19 restrictions, has not provided specific earnings guidance. The fiscal 2022 EPS forecast is unchanged at AUD 0.40, a one-third rise on fiscal 2021’s AUD 0.31. Australian defense spending is expected to increase from AUD 40 billion to AUD 70 billion over the next 10 years.

Company Profile

Downer EDI Ltd (ASX: DOW) operates engineering, construction, and maintenance; transport; technology and communications; utilities; mining; and rail units. But the future of Downer is focused on urban services, and mining and high-risk construction businesses are being sold down. The engineering, construction, and maintenance business has exposure to mining and energy projects through consulting services. The mining division provides contracted mining services, including mine planning, open-cut mining, underground mining, blasting, drilling, crushing, and haulage. The rail division services and maintains passenger rolling stock, including locomotives and wagons.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

EOG May Need Fewer Rigs to Avoid Excess Growth Due to Capital Efficiency, Lowering FVE

 It derives almost all of its production from shale fields in the U.S., with a small incremental contribution from Trinidad. The firm differentiates itself by attempting to identify prospective areas before most peers catch on, enabling it to secure leaseholds at attractive rates (rather than overpaying for land after the market overheats). It has only one large-scale M&A deal under its belt, related to its 2016 entry to the Permian Basin.

Nevertheless, the firm is also active in most other name-brand shale plays, including the Bakken and Eagle Ford. Additionally, the focus now includes the Powder River Basin (Wyoming) and a new natural gas play in southern Texas that the firm has christened “Dorado.”

Due to the combination of its size and focus, EOG has significantly more shale wells under its belt than most peers. This has enabled it to advance more quickly up the learning curve in each play. As a result, initial production rates from new wells are usually well above industry averages. The firm’s acreage contains over 10,000 potential drilling locations that management designates as “premium.” However, management is now prioritizing a sizable subset, 5,700+ locations, designated “double premium.” 

Financial Strength

Overall, EOG’s financial health is excellent compared with peers, giving it the ability to tolerate prolonged periods of weak commodity prices, if necessary. The firm holds about $5.1 billion of debt, resulting in below-average leverage ratios. At the end of the most recent reporting period, debt/capital was 20% and net debt/EBITDA was 0.2 times. These metrics are likely to trend even lower over time, as the firm is capable of generating more cash than it needs to fund its operations and its growing dividend under a wide range of commodity scenarios. Furthermore, the firm also has a comfortable liquidity stockpile, with $3 billion cash and another $2 billion available on its undrawn revolver.

Bull Says

  • EOG is among the most technically proficient operators in the business. Initial production rates from its shale wells consistently exceed industry averages.
  • EOG’s vast inventory of premium drilling locations provides a long runway of low-cost resources.
  • EOG often adds new premium drilling opportunities to its queue via exploration or by using improved knowhow and technology to “upgrade” opportunities that did not previously qualify.

Company Profile

EOG Resources Inc (NYSE: EOG) is an oil and gas producer with acreage in several U.S. shale plays, including the Permian Basin, the Eagle Ford, and the Bakken. At the end of 2020, it reported net proved reserves of 3.2 billion barrels of oil equivalent. Net production averaged 754 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2020 at a ratio of 72% oil and natural gas liquids and 28% natural gas.

 (Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

Ameren’s Renewable Energy Transition and Improving Regulation Support Long-Term Growth

With improving regulatory environments come significant investment opportunities, as seen with the company’s most recent $17.1 billion five-year plan. Ameren has its sights set on $23 billion of opportunities during the next decade, providing a long runway of growth for the company. Management is to be applauded for attaining constructive utility legislation in Missouri. Its patient yet persistent years-long efforts resulted in increased investment opportunities across the territory, a stark change from the past. Numerous trackers are in place for fuel adjustments, pension, and tax positions.

With an improved regulatory framework in Missouri, management is keeping its promise to invest in jurisdictions that support investment. Ameren is allocating $8.5 billion of its investment plan to Missouri. Projects will focus on renewable energy, upgrading aging and underperforming assets, and employing smart grids and connected grid services. Ameren has build-to-transfer agreements for 700 megawatts of wind generation in Missouri. The $1.2 billion investment complies with Missouri’s renewable energy standard. Ameren is also looking to install 100 MW of solar by 2027. Ameren will close roughly 3 gigawatts of coal generation by 2036 and expects to have no coal generation by 2045. Regulation for Ameren in Illinois is constructive. Allowed returns on equity are 580 basis points above the average 30-year U.S. Treasury yield. Ameren continues to advocate for the Illinois Downstate Clean Energy Affordability Act, which would improve allowed returns and extend performance ratemaking.

Ameren’s Future Outlook 

We assume Ameren will have $17.1 billion of capital expenditures between 2021 and 2025. We expect the company to issue debt in line with its current capital structure and refinance its debt as it comes due. Ameren’s dividend is up 10% from the year-ago period. We expect future dividend growth to be more in line with earnings growth. Ameren has tended to be at the lower end of its 55%-70% dividend payout target. We view Ameren’s current financial health as sound. The firm’s 56% debt/capitalization ratio is in line with its utility peers. Interest coverage is a healthy 6.0 times, and current debt/EBITDA is near 5.0.

Bulls Say’s 

  • Ameren’s regulated utilities provide a stable source of earnings. The company’s large capital expenditure plan should drive above-average rate base and earnings growth for the next several years.
  • Ameren’s regulatory relationships have improved significantly in Missouri.
  • Ameren’s management team has proved to be bestin- class operators, having diligently worked to improve regulatory relationships and execute on substantial growth projects.

Company Profile 

Ameren owns rate-regulated generation, transmission, and distribution networks that deliver electricity and natural gas in Missouri and Illinois. It serves nearly 2.5 million electricity customers and roughly 1.0 million natural gas customers.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Expert Insights Technology Stocks

Narrow-Moat Syneos Reports Strong Q2 Results; Raising FVE to $64 on Improved 2021 Outlook

 global, late-stage contract research organizations, but at the price of a significant debt load. Most of Syneos’ CRO business comes from the most lucrative area of the CRO market: long, complex trials that typically require thousands of patients across the globe and thus have ample room for missteps. Trial sponsors need a CRO not only with strong technical know-how in specific disease areas, but also with the expertise in local country cultures and government relations.

Legacy INC Research was a leader in late-stage clinical research from small- and mid-cap biopharma, while inVentiv Health had better exposure to large pharma. The combined company has a diversified client base and provides a full portfolio of offerings, including staffing solutions and commercialization. While we don’t see significant competitive advantages in the staffing and selling business, both complete Syneos’ portfolio of services and offer flexibility to clients. The lower-margin commercial solutions business has had mixed success, but management’s cross-selling strategy to offer hybrid contracts with both clinical and commercial components should be a boon to the segment.

Financial Strength 

Narrow-moat Syneos reported second-quarter revenue of $1.3 billion, representing nearly a 27% increase year over year. Adjusted EBITDA was $175 million for the quarter, up 47% from the prior-year period. Syneos is recovering well from pandemic-related challenges, as evidenced by its strong year-over-year figures. Due to strong demand across Syneos’ clinical and commercial segments, management has updated its 2021 guidance. Syneos reported solid net new business wins in Clinical and Commercial Solutions, totaling $1.7 billion for the quarter, representing a book-to-bill ratio of 1.33 times. The new business wins contributed to an ending backlog of $11.7 billion for the quarter, up 21% from the prior-year period. 

Syneos ended the quarter with about $261 million of unrestricted cash and total debt outstanding of about $2.9 billion, resulting in a net leverage ratio of 3.8 times. We continue to think Syneos’ positive momentum indicates the operating environment remains strong. Syneos is in middling financial health after the 2017 merger, with about $2.9 billion in total debt weighing down the balance sheet. The deal pushed the company to the top tier of large, global late-stage players, which positions the company to secure deals with large biopharma companies and propel cash generation, but we expect the deal to limit near-term financial flexibility. Syneos’ major debt maturities are pushed out to 2024 and beyond, which provides the company ample opportunity to grow and unearth synergies from the merger.

Bulls Say’s 

  • Syneos’ late-stage contract research business is poised to benefit from stable research and development spending and increased outsourcing in the biopharma industry.
  • High levels of new drug approvals should boost growth in the company’s contract commercialization business.
  • Robust net new business wins should translate to accelerated growth in the contract research segment in the near term.

Company Profile 

Syneos is a global contract research and outsourced commercialization organization that provides services to pharmaceutical and biotechnology firms. Its clinical solutions segment offers early- to late-stage clinical trial support that ranges from specialized staffing models to strategic partnerships that oversee nearly all aspects of a drug program, while the company’s commercialization solutions includes outsourced sales, consulting, public relations, and advertising services.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Global stocks Shares

Dish Network’s Wireless Efforts Ramp up as the Television Business Churns out Cash during Q2

planned within the next 60 days, and construction ramps up in 30 other markets across the country. The television business continues to pump out cash, funding wireless spending with enough left over to build cash on the balance sheet.

The wholesale agreement Dish signed with AT&T was the biggest development of the past quarter. Dish remains at odds with T-Mobile, calling the firm a “sore winner” looking to steal back Boost customers with the CDMA network shutdown and aggressive 5G phone offers. Most new Dish/

Boost wireless customers will use the AT&T network going forward. The options tied to this relationship are more intriguing than the wholesale arrangement. Notably, the two firms hold complementary spectrum positions and have a shared interest in the licenses currently used to provide satellite television service. Dish and AT&T also have an opportunity to collaborate in the enterprise services market.

Dish ended the quarter with $4.8 billion on hand, up from $3.7 billion at the start of the year, enough to fund debt maturities until late 2024 with more than $1 billion to spare. Reported debt outstanding increased to $16.2 billion from $15.7 billion at the end of 2020 solely because of the accounting treatment of convertible debt already outstanding.

Company’s Future Outlook

It is expected that Dish’s television business will decline at an accelerating pace over the next several quarters. The firm has done a great job of dropping certain content, notably regional sports networks, to cut costs and offer more attractive prices, but believe there are limits to how far it can take that strategy. Dish is currently negotiating with Sinclair for carriage of more than 100 local broadcast networks, but Sinclair has indicated that it doesn’t expect to reach an agreement before the existing agreement expires on Aug. 16. Dish will face increasingly difficult decisions on which content to carry, forcing it to choose between losing customers at a faster clip or giving back the margin gains it has made in recent years.

Company profile

From its founding in the 1980s Dish Network’s (NASDAQ: DISH) has primarily focused on the satellite television business, capitalizing on technological advancements to expand its reach. The firm now serves 9 million U.S. customers via its network of owned and leased satellites. Dish launched an Internet-based television offering under the Sling brand in 2015 and now serves about 2.5 million customers on this platform. Dish’s future, however, hinges primarily on the wireless business. The firm has amassed a large portfolio of spectrum licenses over the past decade, spending more than $22 billion in the process, and is now building a nationwide wireless network. It acquired Sprint’s prepaid business, serving about 9 million customers, as the entry point into the wireless retail market.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Global stocks Shares

2021 Testing Mettle of Treehouse Food New Commercial Capabilities, but Management Staying the Course

Still, revamped leadership, strategy, and recent activist involvement have mostly remedied internal issues, and we believe private label should continue to ascend, supported by secular trends across the U.S. retail and demographic landscape. Management has reoriented the business strategy to align more with market dynamics instead of product categories. For categories that are either in early or mature stages of growth (snacking and beverages), the team is looking to grow the top line profitably through volume leverage and value-added innovation.

Portfolio optimization is also a core strategy pillar, and it has rationalized many underperforming areas of the assortment. It has also divested secularly challenged business lines like nuts and ready-to-eat cereal. The outlook for Treehouse is still murky, as it remains beleaguered by competition and at the mercy of a consolidated customer base that wield disproportionate influence during times of volatility (like the current industrywide commodity and logistics inflation). Still, we expect its strategy to lead to a largely stable core business, which, along with new growth vectors (like co-packing), should allow it to navigate the environment.

Financial Strength

Treehouse’s financial health looks reasonable to us, though it does leave a bit to be desired. The company has leveraged up meaningfully in the past to fund acquisitions (like Flagstone in 2014 and Ralcorp in 2016), constraining its ability in recent years to make value accretive investments. Nevertheless, leverage is no longer at obscene levels (it sits below 3.5 times EBITDA today on an internally calculated basis), and the firm remaining in the 3-3.5 times range in the medium term. As management continues work to divest assets (it recently completed the RTE cereal business sale, and we wouldn’t be surprised to see more portfolio grooming), even more cash should be available for debt paydown. Treehouse generates a good bit of free cash flow, averaging in the mid-single-digit range as a percent of sales in recent years.

Treehouse also has other cash flow levers, including its receivables sales program, whereby it monetizes its receivables more quickly in partnership with a financial intermediary. The company is still responsible for administering and collecting the receivables, but net-net, this program will continue to reduce its working capital funding needs during any given period. The firm’s debt covenants are fairly restrictive. Most of the debt is secured, and maximum allowable leverage is 4.5 times. Some of its notes also inhibit dividend payments.

Bulls Say’s 

  • The private label industry should continue to benefit from secular trends across the grocery retail landscape and demographic trends in the U.S.
  • If the coronavirus induces prolonged recessionary conditions in the U.S., private label will likely outperform, and Treehouse would benefit disproportionately as a market leader.
  • Its massive manufacturing apparatus should allow the company to benefit from the secular shift toward small, niche brands, by way of co-packing arrangements.

Company Profile 

Treehouse Foods, the largest private label manufacturer in the U.S., is the product of a slew of acquisitions, the most significant being the 2016 acquisition of Ralcorp, Conagra’s former private brands business. The firm plays in over 25 categories, including snacks like pretzels and cookies, meals like pasta and dry dinners, and single-serve beverages like pods and ready-to-drink coffee. Retailers represent its most significant end-market, where it sells products for resale under retailer brands, but it also serves foodservice customers (providing a similar service as its retail business), industrial (selling bulk food for repackaging and repurposing), and branded consumer goods firms (under co-packing arrangements). Over 90% of its revenue comes from the U.S.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

Murphy Prioritizing Balance Sheet Strengthening While Commodity Prices Are Support

which was 10% higher sequentially and 1% higher year over year. Net production, excluding non controlling interest volumes from the firm’s Gulf of Mexico assets, was 171 mboe/d. This exceeded the high end of the guidance range of 160-168 mboe/d. Management attributed the outperformance to its Eagle Ford and Tupper Montney assets, which contributed 3.7 mboe/d and 2 mboe/ d, respectively, of upside relative to guidance.

The firm’s outlook for full-year volumes was nudged up by 0.5 mboe/ d, and the budget range was tightened, but the midpoint was unchanged. The firm’s financial results were similarly strong, with adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS coming in at $391 million and $0.59, respectively. 

Company’s Future Outlook

The estimates were $321 million and $0.17. Like many of its peers, Murphy is using the windfall from currently high commodity prices to strengthen its balance sheet. The firm has repaid its revolver in full and is now aiming for a further $200 million in net debt reduction by the end of the year. It is planned to incorporate these operating and financial results in our model shortly, but after this first look, our fair value estimate and no-moat rating remain unchanged.

Company Profile

Murphy Oil Corporation (NYSE: MUR) is an independent exploration and production company developing unconventional resources in the United States and Canada. At the end of 2020, the company reported net proven reserves of 715 million barrels of oil equivalent. Consolidated production averaged 174.5 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2020, at a ratio of 66% oil and natural gas liquids and 34% natural gas.

 (Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Technology Stocks

Envestnet Inc to Ramp Up Investment Spending to Focus on Financial Wellness

Digital tablet display the stock market data

In 2015, Envestnet acquired Yodlee, which makes up the firm’s data and analytics segment. Yodlee’s revenue consists of its core data aggregation, alternative data to asset managers, and analytics to advisory firms. We do believe this segment is less moaty, as Yodlee faces competition from Plaid and MX Technologies as well as many alternative data providers. Following Visa’s announced (but ultimately nixed) acquisition of Plaid at a high valuation (we estimate over 20 times forward revenue), media reports have indicated that Envestnet is looking to sell Yodlee. For now, we believe Envestnet is comfortable keeping Yodlee in its product portfolio.

Envestnet believes marketplace exchanges can add to growth. In 2019, the company launched an insurance exchange with six national carriers to connect an advisor’s clients with annuity products. In addition to the insurance exchange, Envestnet launched Advisor Credit Exchange to help advisors address the lending needs of their clients. Envestnet is also focusing on growing asset-based revenue by providing value-added services such as impact portfolios, direct indexing, and tax overlays.

Financial Strength

Overall, Envestnet’s financial strength is sound. in our view, The company has used leverage for acquisitions. As of Dec. 31, 2020, Envestnet has approximately $385 million of cash and $756 million in convertible note debt. This equates to a net leverage ratio of about 2 EBITDA. While it’s true that the firm’s wealth solutions segment contains asset-based revenue, net of direct asset-based cost of revenue, these fees are less than 40% of the firm’s revenue. In addition, we estimate that 40% of Envestnet’s AUM/A are not in equities. Given this and the fact that the rest of Envestnet’s revenue is mostly recurring in nature, we’re comfortable with the company’s level of debt.

Bull Says

  • Envestnet has leading market share, and its product suite offers greater breadth than competitors.
  • Envestnet could pursue strategic alternatives with Yodlee.
  • Envestnet should continue to benefit from the trend of advisors leaving wire house firms to start their own practices and the shift from commission-based to fee based advice.

Company Profile

Envestnet provides wealth-management technology and solutions to registered investment advisors, banks, broker/dealers, and other firms. Its Tamarac platform provides trading, rebalancing, portfolio accounting, performance reporting, and client relationship management software to high-end RIAs. Envestnet’s portfolio management consultants provide research services and consulting services to assist advisors, including vetted third-party managed account products. In November 2015, Envestnet acquired Yodlee, a provider of data aggregation.

 (Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
LICs LICs

WAM Strategic Value Limited Commences Trading

Young businesswoman sitting at the table with touchpad and communicating with senior woman

There Pre – Net Tax Tangible Assets is $1.27 till June 2021. IPO price is $1.25 on 28th June 2021.

Till now, there is no Dividend history for WAM Strategic Value.

WAM Strategic Value Limited ((WAR)) date of listing on ASX on June 28, 2021, at a price of $1.25 per share with 180 million shares on issue.

Following the merger proposal with WAM Global Limited ((WGB)), the portfolio increased following the IPO, with Templeton Global Growth Fund Limited ((TGG)) being a positive contributor. 

TGG shareholders can choose between receiving WGB stock consideration with an attaching option or cash consideration equal to the NTA after tax and transaction charges under the terms of the offer.

The announcement of MHH’s reorganisation from a LIT to an ETMF would have given the portfolio a lift as well, with the MHH unit price reacting positively to the news.

Company Profile 

WAM Strategic Value Ltd is an investment company. Its investment objectives are to provide capital growth over the medium-to-long term, deliver a stream of dividends and preserve capital while providing shareholders with exposure to a diversified equities portfolio.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Technology Stocks

NortonLifeLock Merging With Avast to Expand Reach within Consumer Security Market; Maintain $21 FVE

Our $21 fair value estimate for no-moat NortonLifeLock after announcing its intention to merge with fellow consume cybersecurity firm Avast. The news follows NortonLifeLock recently acknowledging rumors of Avast combination talks, and we believe this merger is in line with NortonLifeLock’s plan to use mergers as a growth accelerator with a focus on extracting overlapping costs. The deal puts Avast’s enterprise value between $8.6 billion and $9.2 billion, depending on how Avast shareholders elect to receive a majority stock or cash option. We updated our model with the assumption that the merger occurs in the middle of 2022 as expected, helping the company rapidly expand its revenue growth rate and achieve its reiterated adjusted earnings target of $3 per share in the coming years.

NortonLifeLock gains international reach, especially within the important German market, and helps bolster its opportunity with the small business segment through this merger. The combined company will be renamed at a later point and together have about 40 million direct customers and over 500 million total users, as well as about $3.5 billion in combined revenue with a blended adjusted operating margin of 52% (presynergies). 

NortonLifeLock expects to achieve $280 million of annual gross cost synergies, fully realized by the second year post-merger. We believe the merged company will be shareholder centric, with a plan to return 100% of free cash flow through the existing $0.125 quarterly dividend and future share buybacks.

Financial Deals Post – Merger

NortonLifeLock will finance the deal with cash and $5.35 billion of new debt facilities, which the company expects to rapidly pay down post-merger. Avast shareholders are expected to own between 14% and 26% of the combined company, depending on their election, post-merger. In the majority stock option, Avast shareholders receive $2.37 in cash and 0.1937 shares of NortonLifeLock whereas in the majority cash option, Avast shareholders receive $7.61 in cash and 0.0302 shares of NortonLifeLock. In the majority stock option, NortonLifeLock plans to increase its buyback program by $3 billion.

Current NortonLifeLock CEO Vincent Pilette will be the CEO, Avast’s current CEO will become President, and NortonLifeLock’s CFO will retain her role for the combined company. The merged company will have dual headquarters, with Avast in Prague, Czech Republic and NortonLifeLock in Tempe, Arizona. While we appreciate the combined company expanding its geographical footprint, we expect a concerted focus on reducing costs to reel in operating and fixed costs.

Company Profile 

NortonLifeLock sells cybersecurity and identity protection for individual consumers through its Norton antivirus and LifeLock brands. The company divested the Symantec enterprise security business to Broadcom in 2019. The Arizona-based company was founded in 1982, went public in 1989, and sells its solutions worldwide.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.