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Alumina Price Finally Catches Up to Soaring Aluminium Price

Alcoa owns 60% and is the manager of the joint venture. Alumina is effectively a forwarding office for AWAC profits. Its profits stem from its equity share in AWAC, less local head office and interest expenses. While AWAC enjoys a low operating cost position relative to its competitors, the cost curve is relatively flat, and competitive pressures exist via supply from China. 

Alumina was the result of a demerger of WMC’s aluminium assets in 2003. AWAC has substantial global bauxite reserves and alumina refining operations, many of which are in the lowest quartile of the cost curve. AWAC primarily operates across the first two stages in the aluminium production chain: bauxite mining and alumina refining. AWAC’s refineries are, on average, just inside the lowest quartile of the cost curve. Alumina’s cost-efficient refining operations stem from proximity to bauxite mines and access to cheap power. 

Alumina Price Finally Catches Up to Soaring Aluminium Price; No Change to AUD 1.80 FVE

Our fair value estimate for no-moat Alumina is unchanged at AUD 1.80 per share. 

AWAC mined 11.1 million tonnes of bauxite and refined 3.1 million tonnes of alumina, both slightly lower than the June 2021 quarter. However, the gross margin on the alumina side rose 8% to USD 55 per tonne as realised pricing strengthened 4% to USD 292 per tonne. But this strengthening is only a prelude to what can be expected in the fourth quarter, with the average alumina price for the first two weeks of October at USD 410 per tonne. This is broadly as we’d expected given alumina has been wildly out of step with its usual synchronisation to the aluminium price. The latter is soaring at around AUD 1.40 per pound, nearly double the fiscal 2020 average. 

Our mid cycle alumina price forecast is unchanged at USD 315 per tonne and considered to be a healthy price. The global alumina cost curve is a flat one. We think rising energy costs, increasingly capturing the cost of carbon, and favourable demand trends via light-weighting vehicles and via battery market growth, support a healthy mid cycle alumina price. 

Financial Strength 

At end 2020, AWAC had USD 361 million in net cash, marginally improved on 2019’s USD 340 million. At the end June 2021, Alumina had just a position of USD 5.7 million in net debt, also marginally improved. Historically, AWAC reinvested heavily in its operations at the expense of dividend growth. We expect the company to remain largely in maintenance mode, with no major projects planned over the foreseeable future. Therefore, AWAC should pay out most if not all of its operating cash flows in the form of a dividend to Alumina Ltd. and Alcoa. This will help to maintain Alumina Ltd.’s strong financial health. We expect AWAC to remain unleveraged and Alumina to remain modestly leveraged at worst.

Bulls Say 

  • Alumina is a beneficiary of continued global economic growth and increased demand for aluminium via electrification of transport. 
  • AWAC is a low-cost alumina producer. It has improved its position on the cost curve relative to peers through expansion of low-cost refineries and closure of high cost operations. 
  • The amended AWAC agreement ensures that Alumina will be able to maximise value for shareholders and makes it a more attractive acquisition target.

Company Profile

Alumina Ltd. is a forwarding office for Alcoa World Alumina and Chemicals’ distributions. Its profit is a 40% equity share of AWAC profit, less head office and interest expenses. Its cash flow consists of AWAC distributions. AWAC investments include substantial global bauxite reserves and alumina refining operations. Declining capital and operating costs and a lack of supply discipline from China are likely to result in competitive pressures, but Alumina’s position in the lowest quartile of the industry cost curve is defensive.

(Source: Morningstar)

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Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Air Products contribute long-term contract and high switching cost to gas industries

Industrial gases typically account for a relatively small fraction of customers’ costs but are a vital input to ensure uninterrupted production. Demand for industrial gases is strongly correlated to industrial production. As such, organic revenue growth will largely depend on global economic conditions.

Since Seifi Ghasemi was appointed CEO in 2014, new management has launched several initiatives that drastically improved Air Products’ profitability, raising EBITDA margins by over 1,500 basis points. Air Products is poised for rapid growth over the next few years due to its 10-year capital allocation plan. The industrial gas firm aims to deploy over $30 billion during the decade from fiscal 2018 through fiscal 2027 and has already either spent or committed roughly $18 billion of that amount.

Financial Strength

Narrow-moat-rated Air Products announced that it will invest $4.5 billion in a blue hydrogen complex in Louisiana, expected on stream in 2026. The project will produce over 750 million standard cubic feet per day of blue hydrogen. A portion of the blue hydrogen will be injected into Air Products’ existing 700-mile Gulf Coast pipeline network, which is fed by around 25 projects including the firm’s Port Arthur facility (a blue hydrogen project that has been operational since 2013). Air Products recently announced its updated capital deployment plan and aims to invest over $30 billion during the 10-year period from fiscal 2018 to fiscal 2027.

Management has indicated that maintaining an investment-grade credit rating is a priority. The company has used proceeds from its divestments of noncore operations (including the spin-off of its electronic materials division as Versum Materials in 2016 and the sale of its specialty additives business to Evonik in 2017) to reduce debt and fuel investment.The company held roughly $8 billion of gross debt as of Dec. 31, 2020, compared with $6.2 billion in cash and short-term investments. Liquidity includes an undrawn $2.5 billion multicurrency revolving credit facility, which is also used to support a commercial paper program.

Bulls Say’s

  • Air Products is poised for rapid growth due to business opportunities that drive its ambitious $30 billion capital allocation plan.
  • After acquiring Shell’s and GE’s gasification businesses in 2018, Air Products is the global leader in this segment and is poised to benefit from growing coal gasification in China and India.
  • The company’s focus on on-site investments will result in a derisked portfolio with more stable cash flows.

Company Profile 

Since its founding in 1940, Air Products has become one of the leading industrial gas suppliers globally, with operations in 50 countries and 19,000 employees. The company is the largest supplier of hydrogen and helium in the world. It has a unique portfolio serving customers in a number of industries, including chemicals, energy, healthcare, metals, and electronics. Air Products generated $8.9 billion in revenue in fiscal 2020.

(Source: Morningstar)

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Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Weatherford to benefit from oil market’s recovery from COVID-19

When CEO Mark McCollum came aboard in March 2017, many wondered whether it was the dawn of a new era for Weatherford International. McCollum made solid progress in turning Weatherford around in 2018, with rapid improvement in profitability thanks to the companywide transformation plan. But this improvement wasn’t quick enough for the highly leveraged company’s creditors, which forced Weatherford into bankruptcy in 2019.

Weatherford emerged from bankruptcy in December 2019 having shed most of its debt. Shortly after, the coronavirus oil market downturn battered the company just as it was getting back on its feet. Given many abortive attempts at turning Weatherford around, many investors are refusing to give the company another chance. While McCollum left in 2020, he laid the groundwork for improvement that should be carried on by the company’s new leadership under CEO Girish Saligram.

Financial Strength:

Weatherford’s balance sheet is somewhat weak, but it is expected to ride out the rest of the oil market downturn without major financial distress. Weatherford has about $1.2 billion in available cash and no debt coming due until 2024. The company posted solid free cash flow of $135 million in 2020 despite very weak oil markets. In 2021, the company won’t have the benefit of working capital inflows, but it is still expected to be slightly positive in total free cash flow. In any case, it should have enough liquidity to meet any cash outflows as COVID-19 wreaks havoc on oil markets in 2021. Improving profitability in subsequent years should drive Weatherford solidly into positive free cash flow territory, despite a very heavy interest burden.

Bulls Say:

  • Weatherford has some hidden gems in its portfolio whose value will be revealed with the divestiture of loss-making business lines and streamlining the company. 
  • The company’s managed pressure drilling technology will become increasingly sought after as wellbores move into deeper, harsher environments.

Company Profile:

Weatherford International provides a diversified portfolio of oilfield services, with offerings catering to all geographies and different types of oilfields. Key product lines include artificial lift, tubular running services, cementing products, directional drilling, and wireline evaluation.

(Source: Morningstar)

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Newcrest’s Numerous Development Projects Maturing Nicely; Shares Remain Undervalued

the large resource base, low-cost position, and the company’s record. Barring a dip in fiscal 2024 and 2025, when the company assumes Telfer exhausts, Newcrest expects gold production to remain steady around 2.0 million ounces a year for the next decade based on the projects it has in hand. The outlook for copper production is similarly relatively flat, around 140,000 tonnes a year, but should step up from around 2029 to over 170,000 tonnes a year. Neither outlook–for gold or copper production–sounds too exciting. But beneath that apparent steadiness, the forecasts show how far Newcrest has come to offset the inevitable decline in grade at Cadia and the possible closure of Telfer.

Company’s Future Outlook

Our AUD 29.50 fair value estimate for Newcrest after incorporating the refined development plans for Havieron and Lihir. However, we continue to incorporate it separately into our fair value estimate, and the latest prefeasibility study supports our estimated standalone valuation of about AUD 2.50 per share, which is less than 10% of our overall fair value estimate. The company expects all-in sustaining costs to roughly have by fiscal 2030. In part, that depends on the copper price; Newcrest assumes USD 3.30 per pound longer term, which is above our USD 2.50 per pound assumption from 2025, but nevertheless we expect the company to remain a low-cost gold producer and well placed relative to peers.

We think these deposits have been somewhat forgotten by the market, but they contribute just over 10% to our fair value estimate, and we think the market could reasonably quickly be reminded of the valuable optionality they bring. From the base cases that Newcrest outlined for Telfer, Havieron, and Red Chris, we think the upside potential at Red Chris is likely to be the most substantial of the three, but it’s also longer-dated. The transition from lower-grade open-pit ore to bulk underground mining is expected

Company Profile 

Newcrest is an Australia-based gold and, to a lesser extent, copper miner. Operations are predominantly in Australia and Papua New Guinea, with a smaller mine in Canada. Cash costs are below the industry average, underpinned by improvements at Lihir and Cadia. Newcrest is one of the larger global gold producers but accounts for less than 3% of total supply. Gold mining is relatively fragmented.

(Source: Morningstar)

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New Jersey Resources Infrastructure Upgrades and Clean Energy Support Multiyear Growth Plan

NJR’s regulated utility business will continue to produce more than two thirds of earnings on a normalized basis for the foreseeable future as New Jersey’s need for infrastructure safety and decarbonization investments provide growth opportunities. NJR’s constructive regulation and customer growth has produced an impressive record of earnings and dividend growth.

NJR’s gas distribution business faces a potential long-term threat from carbon-reduction policies. To address that threat, NJR plans to invest $850 million in its solar business in 2021-24. These projects support aggressive renewable energy goals in New Jersey and other states. NJR also is well positioned to invest in hydrogen and biogas. NJR’s $367.5 million acquisition of the Leaf River (Mississippi) Energy Center in late 2019 paid off big in early 2021 when extreme cold weather allowed NJR to profit from its gas in storage.

Company’s Future Outlook

Our utility earnings growth estimate assumes 1% annual customer growth and $1 billion of capital investment in 2022-24, in line with management’s plan. NJR has maintained one of the most conservative balance sheets and highest credit ratings in the industry. We forecast an average debt/total capital ratio around 55% and EBITDA/interest coverage near 5 times on a normalized basis after a full year of earnings contributions from its midstream investments. NJR’s $260 million equity raise in fiscal-year 2020 will primarily go to fund the Leaf River acquisition and midstream investments. 

In mid-2019, it issued $200 million of 30- and 40-year first mortgage bonds at interest rates below 4%, among the lowest rates of any large U.S. investor-owned utility at the time. The success of the nonutility businesses and divesture of the wind investments also brought in cash to support its $2.5 billion of total investment in 2020-22. NJR will probably have to raise up to $700 million mostly through debt to help finance what we estimate will be $2 billion of capital investment in 2022-24.NJR’s board took a big step by raising the dividend 9% to $1.45 per share annualized in late 2021.

Bulls Say’s

  • NJR’s customer base continues to grow faster than the national average and includes the wealthier regions of New Jersey.
  • NJR raised its dividend 9% for 2022 to $1.45 per share, its 28th increase in the last 26 years.
  • NJR’s distribution utility has received two constructive rate case outcomes and regulatory approval for nearly all of its investment plan since 2016.

Company Profile 

New Jersey Resources is an energy services holding company with regulated and non regulated operations. Its regulated utility, New Jersey Natural Gas, delivers natural gas to 560,000 customers in the state. NJR’s non regulated businesses include retail gas supply and solar investments primarily in New Jersey. NJR also is an equity investor and owner in several large midstream gas projects.

(Source: Morningstar)

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Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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AGL’s Near-Term Outlook Looks Tough, but Earnings are expected to Recover Over the Long Term

Earnings are dominated by energy generation (wholesale markets), with energy retailing about half the size. Strategy is heavily influenced by government energy policy, such as the renewable energy target.

AGL has proposed a structural separation into two businesses; a multi-product energy retailer focusing on carbon neutrality and an electricity generator that will own AGL’s large fleet of coal fired power stations among other assets. At this stage, the announced split is only an internal separation, with more details regarding the future governance, capital structure, and asset allocation expected by June 2021. 

Low-cost electricity generators and gas producers can achieve an economic moat via low-cost production, as AGL has via its low-cost coal-fired generation plants. Wholesale electricity prices are under pressure from falling gas prices, government initiatives to reduce utility bills, and new renewable energy supply. These headwinds are likely to keep AGL’s earnings falling into fiscal 2023.

Financial Strength:

The fair value estimate for AGL is AUD 14.00 per share, which is implied by the fiscal 2022 price/earnings multiple of 32 and an enterprise value/EBITDA multiple of 9. At this valuation, the forward dividend yield is expected to be 2.3% unfranked, with strong long-term growth as earnings recover. Also, the historical dividend yields generated by AGL are phenomenal.

AGL Energy is in reasonable financial health though banks are increasingly reluctant to lend to coal power stations. From 1.4 times in 2020, net debt/EBITDA is expected to rise to 2.1 times in fiscal 2022. Funds from operations interest cover was comfortable at 12.8 times in fiscal 2021, comfortably above the 2.5 times covenant limit. AGL Energy aims to maintain an investment-grade credit rating. To bolster the balance sheet amid falling earnings and one-off demerger costs, the dividend reinvestment plan will be underwritten until mid-2022. This should raise more than AUD 500 million in equity. Dividend payout ratio is 75% of EPS.

Bulls Say: 

  • As AGL Energy is a provider of an essential product, earnings should prove somewhat defensive. 
  • Its balance sheet is in relatively good shape, positioning it well to cope with industry headwinds. 
  • Longer term, its low-cost coal-fired electricity generation fleet is likely to benefit from rising wholesale electricity prices.

Company Profile:

AGL Energy is one of Australia’s largest retailers of electricity and gas. It services 3.7 million retail electricity and gas accounts in the eastern and southern Australian states, or about one third of the market. Profit is dominated by energy generation, underpinned by its low-cost coal-fired generation fleet. Founded in 1837, it is the oldest company on the ASX. Generation capacity comprises a portfolio of peaking, intermediate, and base-load electricity generation plants, with a combined capacity of 10,500 megawatts.

(Source: Morningstar)

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CSR Responds to Structural Changes taking place in Australian Residential Construction

CSR acknowledges and is responding to the structural change taking place in Australian residential construction. Cost of construction is increasing, while detached housing lot sizes decrease and a greater share of total dwellings are multifamily. Higher energy prices are making lightweight building alternatives such as fibre cement and AAC more attractive, while energy-intensive materials like brick are losing their appeal. To this end, CSR has acted to pivot toward lightweight building materials and executed a number of acquisitions to strengthen its positioning.These investments in lightweight building material businesses, including fibre cement and AAC, are part of CSR’s strategy to drive future growth as lightweight building materials, which reduce total building cost, gain greater favour.

Capacity reductions, industry consolidation, and buoyant construction markets have underpinned earnings growth, while high aluminium prices also have been a strong tailwind. This has enabled CSR to earn good but unsustainable returns on invested capital in recent years. Despite strong brands and scale, CSR exhibits sufficient pricing power or cost advantage to yield an economic moat. The balance sheet carries no debt, providing flexibility should acquisition opportunities arise.

Financial Strength 

CSR’s balance sheet remains in a position of undeniable strength, with net cash of AUD 251 million at fiscal 2021 year-end. With dividends reinstated, we forecast full-year ordinary dividends of AUD 0.24 per share in fiscal 2022-a 60% payout of forecast adjusted net profit.Substantial balance sheet flexibility remains in place for CSR. We continue to forecast ample liquidity to fund the businesses operations and with the capacity to fund the retirement of maturing debt facilities through to fiscal 2024. Absent capital management or M&A activity, we forecast a net cash position for CSR through the forecast period.

Bulls Say 

  • Rationalisation of the brick operations has improved profitability in recent years. 
  • Continued strong demand in China could see aluminium prices hold in at current levels. 
  • The balance sheet is in excellent shape, providing flexibility for share buybacks or opportunistic acquisitions amid the COVID-19 downturn.

Company Profile

CSR is one of Australia’s leading building materials companies; it produces plasterboard, bricks, roof tiles, insulation, glass, fibre cement, and aerated autoclaved concrete. Founded as Colonial Sugar Refining Co. in 1855, CSR started producing building materials in 1942 and is behind recognised brands such as Gyprock plasterboard. CSR sold the last of its sugar assets in 2010 to focus primarily on building products. CSR retains a 25% effective interest in the Tomago aluminium smelter and periodically advances surplus industrial land to property developers.

 (Source: Morningstar)

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Strong Fiscal 2021 Trends Persist Into First-Quarter Fiscal 2022

While dominating the fragmented Australian market, and being a large global player in commodity and environmental testing, it is trumped by the majors, Bureau Veritas, SGS, and Intertek in nondestructive testing and inspection. Services include laboratory testing for the mineral, coal, environmental, food, and pharmaceutical segments.

Excellent reputation, technical capabilities, a global network, and established relationships with global clients are key advantages over often fragmented competitors.ALS’ global network of more than 350 laboratories provides a geographically diverse revenue base: 37% Asia-Pacific, 36% Americas, 24% EMENA, and the balance Africa. This global network reduces region reliance and gives it the capability to leverage experience across borders and serve an international client base.

Financial Strength

ALS is in only reasonable financial health. At the end of fiscal 2015, acquisitions and capital expenditure had pushed net debt to AUD 776 million and gearing (net debt/equity) to 63%. A subsequent AUD 325 million capital raising meant gearing fell to near 40% and net debt/EBITDA from 2.6 times to a manageable 2.0 times. Incremental acquisitions in the life sciences segment’s EBITDA had been accompanied by a sharp rise in group net debt. This has since been paid down to AUD 675 million at end-March 2021. Somewhat elevated leverage (ND/ND+E) of 36% reflects ongoing incremental acquisitions in the life sciences segment, albeit within the limits of ALS’ sub-45% target ratio. Fiscal 2021 net debt/EBITDA of 1.6 is reasonable.

Bulls Say’s

  • ALS has diversified the earnings base to mitigate exposure to highly cyclical commodity markets. Expansion into food and pharma testing, as well as inspection and certification markets, should provide growth despite a significant slowdown in minerals testing.
  • Large clients are unlikely to move away on price alone, with quality and skills essential requirements.
  • Exposure to mineral and coal testing could once again provide earnings growth if the global economy’s appetite for commodities increases.

Company Profile 

Founded in the 1880s and listing on the ASX in 1952, ALS operates three divisions: commodities, life sciences, and industrial. ALS commodities traditionally generated the majority of underlying earnings, providing geochemistry, metallurgy, inspection and mine site services for the global mining industry. Expansion into environmental, pharmaceutical and food testing areas and commodity price weakness have lessened earnings exposure to commodities.

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Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Rio Tinto’s most recent profit report

Investment Thesis

  • One of the largest miners in the world with a competitive cost structure.
  • Tier 1 assets globally, which are difficult to replicate. 
  • Highly cash generative assets with attractive free cash flow profile. 
  • Shareholder return focused – ongoing capital management initiatives.  
  • Commodities price surprises on the upside (potential China stimulus to combat Coronavirus impact). 
  • Strong balance sheet position.
  • Electrification and light-weighting trends in automobile industry provide long-term growth runway for aluminium demand.

Key Risks

We see the following key risks to our investment thesis:

  • Further deterioration in global macro-economic conditions.
  • Deterioration in global iron ore/aluminium supply & demand equation.
  • Production delay or unscheduled site shutdown.
  • Natural disasters such as Tropical Cyclone Veronica.
  • Unfavourable movements in AUD/USD.
  • Company not achieving its productivity gain targets. 

1H21 results summary

Relative to the pcp (1H20), and in US$: 

  • Net cash generated from operating activities of $13.7bn was +143% higher on higher pricing for iron ore, aluminium, and copper. 
  • $10.2bn free cash flow reflected stronger operating cash flows partially offset by a +24% rise in Capex of $3.3bn (driven by higher replacement and development capital as the Company ramp up its projects).
  • $21.0bn underlying EBITDA was 118% higher (on 61% margin). 
  • $12.2bn underlying earnings (reflecting underlying EPS of 751.9cps) was +156% (with underlying effective tax rate of 29%). 
  • The Board declared cash return of 561cps, broken into interim dividend of 376cps and special dividend of 185cps. Payout is 75% of underlying earnings. (6) Balance sheet was stronger with net cash of $3.1bn versus net debt of $0.7bn in the pcp.

Company Description  

Rio Tinto Limited (RIO) is an international mining company with operations in Australia, Africa, the Americas, Europe and Asia. RIO has interests in mining for aluminium, borax, coal, copper, gold, iron ore, lead, silver, tin, uranium, zinc, titanium dioxide feedstock and diamonds.  

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Whitehaven Coal is cheap in spite of soaring thermal coal futures

The portfolio of export-orientated mines is based in New South Wales, Australia. Salable coal production expanded from 10 million tonnes in fiscal 2014 to about 15 million tonnes in fiscal 2021, largely due to the ramp-up of Maules Creek and the expansion of the Narrabri mine. Equity output is expected to grow to approach 19 million tonnes by fiscal 2023. 

Whitehaven focused on increasing resources, reserves, and production through the boom. Maules Creek was developed despite a challenging external environment, and the subsequent ramp-up and improved coal prices from 2016 saw the weak balance sheet quickly repaired. Favourable coal prices are critical to generating excess long-term returns, but on this front we are circumspect. However, from near-break even profit levels in fiscal 2020, we see material longer-term earnings upside as coal prices recover.

Financial Strength:

The last traded price of the Whitehaven Coal is AUD 3.30 and the fair value as per the analysts is AUD 4.30, which shows that the share is undervalued.

Whitehaven’s financial position is relatively weak. The balance sheet deteriorated with the rapid decline in the coal price in fiscal 2020 and the payment of about AUD 300 million of dividends declared with the final result from fiscal 2019. The speed of the decline in the coal price, the production issues at Maules Creek and Narrabri, and the impact on unit cost drove a spike in net debt to about AUD 820 million at end 2020. At this level, Whitehaven is carrying more debt and leverage than most of its peers. The company had liquidity of about AUD 410 million at end 2020 with about AUD 100 million cash and AUD 310 million remaining undrawn on the company’s AUD 1 billion debt facility, which matures in July 2023.

Bulls Say:

  • It is increasingly difficult for new coal mines to gain approval. This could dampen future supply to the benefit of existing coal producers with long life. 
  • Whitehaven’s Maules Creek and Narrabri mines will likely provide a core of low-cost production, while Maules Creek brings a meaningful proportion of metallurgical coal. 
  • The company is development rich with projects including the Vickery and Winchester South deposits. This underpins a strong pipeline of production growth, including some coking coal, for Whitehaven for years to come.

Company Profile:

Whitehaven Coal is a large Australian independent thermal and semisoft metallurgical coal miner with several mines in the Gunnedah Basin, New South Wales. It also owns the large undeveloped Vickery and Winchester South deposits in New South Wales and Queensland respectively. Coal is railed to the port of Newcastle for export to Asian customers. Equity salable coal production expanded from 10 million tonnes in fiscal 2014 to about 15 million tonnes in fiscal 2021, largely due to Maules Creek. The Maules Creek and Narrabri mines should be the key driver of an expansion in equity coal production to approach 19 million tonnes from fiscal 2023. Development of the Vickery deposit could see approximately 8 million tonnes of additional equity production from around 2025.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.