Category: Financial Markets
In North Carolina, Duke’s largest service territory, we view the regulatory framework as average and continue to expect Duke will receive support for its investments in the state. In early 2021, regulators approved Duke’s settlement agreement that resolves historical recovery of coal ash costs and provides clarity on future recovery. Indiana remains constructive. Regulators approved a peer-average allowed return on equity. The subsidiary is allowed recovery for investments for renewable energy and recovery on and of investments for coal ash remediation, with a forward-looking test year.
Management recently entered into an agreement to sell 19.9% of the entity at an attractive valuation. Duke’s $60 billion, five-year capital investment plan is focused on clean energy, as the company works toward net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 and net-zero methane emissions by 2030. Management notes growth opportunities beyond its five-year forecast, noting expectations for $65 billion to $75 billion of capital expenditures helping to support 7% annual rate base growth. Management is transitioning Duke away from coal generation. The company, which has among the largest coal fleets in the industry, aims to reduce its coal fleet by up to 70% and install up to 20 gig watts of renewable energy by 2030, depending on the outcome of its Carolina Integrated Resource Plan.
Financial Strength
Duke Energy Corp’s (NYSE: DUK) Increase in FVE to $99 per share after 2nd quarter earnings. We expect $60 billion of capital investment over the next five years. The company has manageable long-term debt maturities. Plans to sell a minority interest in Duke Energy Indiana helps reduce equity needs to fund this plan. Duke has ample cash liquidity and borrowing capacity available under its master revolving credit facility. We believe Duke’s dividend is well covered with its regulated utilities’ earnings. Our expectations for 3.5% average annual dividend growth will represent a 70% payout based on our 2025 earnings estimate. Duke’s liquidity position and cash flow generation should give investors confidence that it can maintain and grow its dividend.
Bull Says
- Duke’s regulated utilities provide a stable source of earnings. The company’s large capital expenditure plan should drive rate base and earnings growth for the next several years. We think management’s 5% to 7% earnings growth target from 2021 to 2025 is achievable.
- The company operates in mostly constructive regulatory jurisdictions, which account for most of the company’s revenue.
- Duke’s management team has focused on core regulated operations and growth investments.
Company Profile
Duke Energy Corp (NYSE: DUK) is one of the largest U.S. utilities, with regulated utilities in the Carolinas, Indiana, Florida, Ohio, and Kentucky that deliver electricity and gas to more than 7 million customers. Duke operates in three major segments: electric utilities and infrastructure; gas utilities and infrastructure; and commercial renewable.
(Source: Morningstar)
General Advice Warning
Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.
The firm managed through a very difficult 2020 via sharply reduced capital spending, a nearly 90% dividend reduction, and expense cuts. So far in 2021, it has done a good job, reducing debt by nearly $800 million. Targa is by no means particularly conservative on capital spending plans–its initial 2021 growth spending plans were twice our original expectations, as the rest of the midstream space hunkers down. The firm has also hinted that it may spend virtually all its excess cash on rebuying assets from its Stonepeak joint venture in early 2022 at a cost of nearly $1 billion.
LPG exports are largely contracted out to 2022 and sent mainly to Asian and Latin American markets. The Grand Prix NGL pipeline will be a highly attractive asset tha takes advantage of Targa’s position in the Permian Basin to move over 350,000 barrels per day of NGLs by our estimates in 2021 (expandable to 550,000 b/d) to Mont Belvieu, and links Targa assets at both ends of the pipe, giving it more control over the molecule and ability to earn multiple fees. The Grand Prix pipeline will reduce Targa’s costs for NGLs, as it will no longer pay third-party tariffs to transport its NGLs to market.
Financial Strength
After updating our model to reflect Targa’s higher guidance, our fair value estimate increases to $38 per share. Targa’s second-quarter results benefited from higher Permian gas volumes, thanks primarily to higher activity by private operators. As a result, Targa increased its 2021 EBITDA guidance to a midpoint of $1.95 billion from its prior midpoint guidance of $1.85 billion last quarter. The incremental cash is being applied smartly toward debt reduction for the time being, as Targa’s 2021 leverage target falls to 3.5 times from 4 times last quarter.
Total consolidated debt fell to $7 billion from $7.4 billion sequentially. Year-to-date debt reduction totals $780 million, which is impressive. Targa also announced a new 250-million-cubic-feet-per-day plant in the Permian to be on line in early 2022 while holding 2021 expected capital spending flat.
Peers tend to be around 75%-85% investment-grade or letter of credit-backed.Total liquidity at the end of the second quarter was $2.9 billion with no major maturities until 2026. Targa is now targeting leverage of 3-4 times as well as an investment-grade rating, which is a marked shift from prior commentary.
Leverage now stands at 3.8 times at the end of the second quarter, and Targa expects it to be around 3.5 times by the end of the year, which our current model supports.However, it’s not clear whether Targa can achieve both its new leverage goals and execute its expected repurchase of the joint venture assets from Stonepeak (included in its May presentation), which could take place as early as the first quarter of 2022.
Bulls Say’s
- Targa is leveraged to the high-growth Permian, and its Grand Prix pipeline is expected to increase volumes 25% in 2021.
- Targa has substantial excess cash after its dividends and capital spending plans in 2021 to allocate toward reducing leverage.
- Targa is a significant fractionation player at the attractive Mont Belvieu hub.
Company Profile
Targa Resources is a midstream firm that primarily operates gathering and processing assets with substantial positions in the Permian, Stack, Scoop, and Bakken plays. It has 813,000 barrels a day of gross fractionation capacity at Mont Belvieu and operates a liquefied petroleum gas export terminal. The Grand Prix natural gas liquids pipeline recently entered full service.
(Source: Morningstar)
General Advice Warning
Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.
The deal is a $500 million cash and stock (55% stock, 45% cash) purchase of 2,302 net royalty acres in the Midland basin from Swallowtail Royalties, a private mineral rights firm where its acreage deals are financed by Blackstone funds. The price on a per acre basis is at over $200,000 per acre, roughly 80% higher than historical pricing and 40% higher than its last significant deal activity in May 2020.
Despite the high per-acre price, Viper has advantages, as 65% of the acres are operated by Diamondback with a net royalty rate of 3.6%. The value of the deal is demonstrated by the fact that Viper was able to offer a clear long-term growth trajectory for its Diamondback acres, substantially reducing uncertainty around future cash flows, but it wasn’t able to do the same for its non-Diamondback acres.
The Diamondback development plan is essentially minimal production today to 1,000 barrels of oil per day (bo/d) in 2022 to over 5000 bo/d by 2024. We expect this path to generate a solid amount of value for Viper.
Company’s Future Outlook
At first glance, it is expected some modest upside to our fair value estimate, while maintaining our narrow moat rating. The deal is expected to be completed by the early fourth quarter, and expected post-deal leverage will be about 2 times, which we consider reasonable. Based on Diamondback’s current development plan, average net oil production in 2022 is expected to be over 1000 bo/d and Production is expected to approach 5000 bo/d by 2024.
Company Profile
Viper Energy Partners (NASDAQ: VNOM) was formed by Diamondback Energy in 2014 to own mineral royalty interests in the Permian Basin. At the end of 2020, Viper owns 24,350 net royalty acres that produced 26,551 boe/d. Proved reserves are mostly oil, and at the end of 2019 stand at 99,392 mboe. Viper’s mineral and royalty interests give it significant exposure to perpetual ownership of high margin, primarily undeveloped assets with no capital requirements to generate its long-term free cash flow. Viper is a variable distribution partnership that is taxed like a corporation in the United States.
(Source: Morningstar)
General Advice Warning
Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.