Category: Financial Markets
Investment Thesis
- Higher oil prices benefit ORG’s APLNG project (higher revenues).
- Balance sheet position is being restored with management focused on getting the debt covenants back to an investment grade level.
- Achieving milestones within the APLNG project.
- On-going focus on operating cost and capital expenditure reduction.
- Increasing dividend profile and with a restored balance sheet the Company can also consider other capital management initiatives.
- Rationalization of asset portfolio, including asset sales and the IPO of its conventional upstream business should help improve the balance sheet position.
Key Risks
- Exploration and production risks.
- Lower energy prices, particularly oil prices (for its APLNG project).
- Structural change in energy markets & increased competition.
- Not meeting cost-out targets.
- Highly geared balance sheet, with the company not being able to reduce debt fast enough.
1H22 Key Highlights
- Underlying EBITDA declined -4.8% over pcp to $1,099m, as increased earnings from Australia Pacific LNG amid higher oil and gas prices were more than offset by expected lower earnings in Energy Markets reflecting lower retail tariffs (set in FY21 when wholesale electricity prices were at lows due to subdued economic activity and increased renewables penetration) and higher energy procurement costs.
- Underlying profit increased +18% over pcp to $268m, driven by strong commodity prices, however, the Company recorded statutory loss of $131m, reflecting the one-off impairment and net capital gains tax expense associated with the $2bn sale of its 10% interest in Australia Pacific LNG.
- Operating cash flow was an outflow of $79m vs inflow of $669m in pcp, amid lower earnings from Energy markets, higher working capital primarily due to timing of LNG cargo delivery and oil hedging and LNG trading losses. FCF (including major growth projects of Octopus equity investment of $260m and Kraken licence implementation costs of $37m) was an outflow of $112m vs inflow of $594m in pcp.
- Adjusted net debt increased +10.6% over 2H21 to $5.133bn, driven by the consideration associated with the investment in Octopus and higher working capital associated with the payment for an LNG cargo partially offset by APLNG cash distributions. (5) The Board declared an unfranked interim dividend of 12.5cps, representing 66% of FCF (excluding major growth projects), with partial franking expected to be restored in FY23.
Sale of 10% interest in APLNG – expected to restore balance sheet flexibility
Management executed an agreement to sell 10% of APLNG for net proceeds of $2.12bn (ORG retains 27.5% of shareholding, existing two APLNG board seats and upstream operatorship), with sale expected to be completed in 3Q22 (first half of CY22) and proceeds used to restore balance sheet flexibility with post sale adjusted Net Debt/adjusted Underlying EBITDA and gearing ratio declining to lower end of the target ranges of 2-3x and 20-30% from current levels of 3.9x and 34%, respectively. It will also provide FY22 net interest saving of $45-65m
Coal-fired generation
Management has submitted notice to AEMO for the potential early retirement of Eraring Power Station in August 2025 (vs prior targeted closure in 2032) and plans to install a large-scale battery of up to 700 MW at the site.
Company Profile
Origin Energy (ORG) is an integrated energy company with operations in exploration, production, generation and the sale of energy to millions of households and businesses across Australia. The Company has extensive operations across Australia and New Zealand and pursuing opportunities in the fast-growing energy markets of Asia and South America. The Company has two main segments: (1) Energy Markets – retail sales of electricity, gas and other customer solutions; electricity generation; and wholesale trading of electricity and gas. (2) Integrated Gas – consists of upstream exploration, development and production; the segment also holds the 37.5% ownership in Asia Pacific LNG project (APLNG).
- Sale of 10% inte(Sourc (Source: Banyantree)
General Advice Warning
Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.
Business Strategy and Outlook
EOG Resources is one of the largest independent oil exploration and production companies. It derives almost all of its production from shale fields in the U.S., with a small incremental contribution from Trinidad. The firm differentiates itself by attempting to identify prospective areas before most peers catch on, enabling it to secure leasehold at attractive rates (rather than overpaying for land after the market overheats). It has only one large-scale M&A deal under its belt, related to its 2016 entry to the Permian Basin. Nevertheless, the firm is also active in most other name-brand shale plays, including the Bakken and Eagle Ford. Additionally, the focus now includes the Powder River Basin (Wyoming) and a new natural gas play in southern Texas that the firm has christened “Dorado.”
The firm’s acreage contains over 10,000 potential drilling locations that management designates as “premium.” These are expected to generate internal rates of return of at least 30% (assuming $40/bbl WTI and $2.50/mcf natural gas). However, management is now prioritizing a sizable subset, 6,000-plus locations, designated “double premium.” These are expected to deliver twice the returns at the same commodity prices. Opportunities that don’t currently satisfy this criteria may be upgraded later, if the company can reduce the expected development cost or boost the likely flow rate of the well. During the past several years, EOG added more premium locations than it drilled, resulting in a net increase to its premium drilling opportunities, and the firm expects to do the same with its double premium inventory.
Financial Strength
Overall, EOG’s financial health is excellent compared with peers, giving it the ability to tolerate prolonged periods of weak commodity prices, if necessary. It has more cash than debt, generates substantial free cash under a wide range of commodity scenarios, and aims to retain a substantial cash cushion to enable it to take advantage of downcycles by repurchasing stock without unduly stressing the balance sheet at an inopportune time.The firm holds about $5.1 billion of debt, resulting in very low leverage ratios. At the end of the most recent reporting period, debt/capital was 19% and net debt/EBITDA was slightly negative. Furthermore, the firm also has a comfortable liquidity stockpile, with $5 billion cash and another $2 billion available on its undrawn revolver (though a portion of this will be used to fund the firm’s $600 million special dividend payable March).
Bulls Say’s
- EOG is among the most technically proficient operators in the business. Initial production rates from its shale wells consistently exceed industry averages.
- EOG’s vast inventory of premium drilling locations provides a long runway of low-cost resources.
- EOG often adds new premium drilling opportunities to its queue via exploration or by using improved knowhow and technology to “upgrade” opportunities that did not previously qualify.
Company Profile
EOG Resources is an oil and gas producer with acreage in several U.S. shale plays, including the Permian Basin, the Eagle Ford, and the Bakken. At the end of 2021, it reported net proved reserves of 3.7 billion barrels of oil equivalent. Net production averaged 829 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2021 at a ratio of 72% oil and natural gas liquids and 28% natural gas.
(Source: Morningstar)
General Advice Warning
Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.