Category: Financial Markets

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Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

AGL Posted Strong 1H22 result with Potential Capital Management and Demerger initiative

Investment Thesis

  • Energy margins bottom out and could potentially start to improve (higher customer and volume numbers). 
  • Strong cash flow business which provided flexibility to deploy cash in growth opportunities and capital management.
  • On-going focus on costs and digitalization should support margins.
  • Potential capital management initiatives (e.g., buyback).
  • Demerger into AGL Australia and Accel may unlock shareholder value. 
  • Potential favourable changes to the regulatory environment. 
  • Potential M&A – AGL has already received a takeover bid at $7.50 per share which was rejected by the AGL Board. 

Key Risk

  • Competitive pressures leading to margin erosion.
  • Cost pressure and fuel supply issues leads to margin erosion. 
  • Increase in supply leading depressed prices. 
  • Regulatory risk (policy uncertainty), such recent regulation in electricity markets [ Victorian Default Offer (VDO) and Default Market Offer (DMO)]
  • Un-scheduled shutdowns impacting earnings. 

1H22 headline results

  • 1H22 group underlying profit after tax of $194m, was down -41% on pcp or down -23% excluding the non-recurrence of the Loy Yang outage insurance proceeds. In term of AGL Australia, the key drivers of performance were consumer energy margin was down predominantly due to the impact of milder weather on demand, higher cost of energy with increased residential solar volumes, and margin compression from customers switching to lower priced products. Further, supply and trading gas margin was lower as expected, impacted by lower priced legacy supply contracts rolling off, during the 2H21. With respect to Accel Energy, trading and origination electricity margin were lower due to lower contracted electricity prices and lower offtake sales to consumer electricity resulting from increased penetration of solar. Providing some positive offsets to underlying profit was positive movement in centrally managed expenses driven by cost-out initiatives, favourable movement in depreciation due to the asset impairments recognized in FY21 and lower tax expense (reflecting the fall in profit). 
  •  Underlying cash flow from operations was up +8% YoY, driven by a large inflow from margin calls versus an outflow pcp and positive working capital movements, which was able to more than offset the decline in underlying EBITDA
  • FY Q21 Results 
  • 1H22 headline result. C

Company Profile

AGL Energy Limited (AGL) is one of Australia’s leading integrated energy companies and the largest ASX listed owner, operator and developer of renewable energy generation in Australia. The company sells and distributes gas and electricity. Further, it also retails and wholesales energy and fuel products to customers throughout Australia. The business operates four main segments: Energy Markets, Group Operations, New Energy and Investments.

(Source: Banyantree)

  • Relative to the pcp: (1) 

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.