NJR’s regulated utility business will continue to produce more than two thirds of earnings on a normalized basis for the foreseeable future as New Jersey’s need for infrastructure safety and decarbonization investments provide growth opportunities. NJR’s constructive regulation and customer growth has produced an impressive record of earnings and dividend growth.
NJR’s gas distribution business faces a potential long-term threat from carbon-reduction policies. To address that threat, NJR plans to invest $850 million in its solar business in 2021-24. These projects support aggressive renewable energy goals in New Jersey and other states. NJR also is well positioned to invest in hydrogen and biogas. NJR’s $367.5 million acquisition of the Leaf River (Mississippi) Energy Center in late 2019 paid off big in early 2021 when extreme cold weather allowed NJR to profit from its gas in storage.
Company’s Future Outlook
Our utility earnings growth estimate assumes 1% annual customer growth and $1 billion of capital investment in 2022-24, in line with management’s plan. NJR has maintained one of the most conservative balance sheets and highest credit ratings in the industry. We forecast an average debt/total capital ratio around 55% and EBITDA/interest coverage near 5 times on a normalized basis after a full year of earnings contributions from its midstream investments. NJR’s $260 million equity raise in fiscal-year 2020 will primarily go to fund the Leaf River acquisition and midstream investments.
In mid-2019, it issued $200 million of 30- and 40-year first mortgage bonds at interest rates below 4%, among the lowest rates of any large U.S. investor-owned utility at the time. The success of the nonutility businesses and divesture of the wind investments also brought in cash to support its $2.5 billion of total investment in 2020-22. NJR will probably have to raise up to $700 million mostly through debt to help finance what we estimate will be $2 billion of capital investment in 2022-24.NJR’s board took a big step by raising the dividend 9% to $1.45 per share annualized in late 2021.
Bulls Say’s
- NJR’s customer base continues to grow faster than the national average and includes the wealthier regions of New Jersey.
- NJR raised its dividend 9% for 2022 to $1.45 per share, its 28th increase in the last 26 years.
- NJR’s distribution utility has received two constructive rate case outcomes and regulatory approval for nearly all of its investment plan since 2016.
Company Profile
New Jersey Resources is an energy services holding company with regulated and non regulated operations. Its regulated utility, New Jersey Natural Gas, delivers natural gas to 560,000 customers in the state. NJR’s non regulated businesses include retail gas supply and solar investments primarily in New Jersey. NJR also is an equity investor and owner in several large midstream gas projects.
(Source: Morningstar)
General Advice Warning
Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.