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Vanguard High Yield Australian Shares

Vanguard Australian Shares High Yield is a compelling and efficient option. The cost-value balance of the strategy is a solid strength. At 0.35% per year, it is currently one of the cheapest unlisted products offering domestic high-yield equity exposure. Vanguard aims to own every stock in the FTSE Australia High Dividend Yield Index, an index Vanguard has exclusive rights to replicate. Vanguard choose to keep the some of the index’s construction rules undisclosed to ward off speculative market participants looking to capitalize on the semiannual index changes before they have been completed within the strategy.

A well-managed, close replication of the FTSE Australia High Dividend Index

Vanguard Australian Shares High Yield replicates the FTSE Australia High Dividend Index, offering investors an above-average yield in a passive, tax-efficient vehicle. The benchmark leans toward the highest-dividend payers, excluding property trusts. The index provider ranks all dividend-paying stocks based on their dividend yield forecast for the next year and constructs the index using stocks that make up the top 50% of the float-adjusted market capitalization. Industries are capped at 40% and individual stocks at 10%. The index is rebalanced semiannually, and in 2018, it changed its rules around buying and selling so that stocks are added or removed more gradually.

This should increase the portfolio to around 55 names from 45 and reduce stock turnover, though it will likely remain higher than market-cap-weighted index funds. Vanguard’s global presence allows the Australian team to leverage the U.S. team’s extensive index-tracking experience. It is worth noting the risk of dividend traps may be exacerbated in a portfolio that has an automated bias to high dividend-payers. The index attempts to minimize this risk primarily through sector and stock caps that enforce a minimum level of diversification by incorporating consensus yield forecasts and by excluding companies not forecast to pay dividends in the next 12 months.

A top-heavy portfolio with large sector and company biases

The biggest sector exposure is financial services, at around 39%-40% of the portfolio. The fund’s exposure to materials has historically been volatile. Following dividend cuts in the sector, exposure dropped to 4% in 2016 from 20%. However, a fall in Rio Tinto’s share price and corresponding increase in yield saw the stock return to the portfolio in June 2017, increasing the fund’s exposure to the sector to 21%. That came at the expense of industrials exposure, which fell to zero. As of 30 June 2021, materials exposure was at 23%. 

Mixed results over the long term

Vanguard has fared relatively well over the long term, but short- and medium-term results have been a drag. Moreover, the annual return track of the strategy is visibly inconsistent as compared with its category index. In 2012 and 2013, the strategy delivered 24.5% and 26.5%, respectively–incredible relative and absolute returns. But investors should be cautiously optimistic about a repeat of such performance as the fund delivered equally subdued relative performance in 2014, followed by a 4.22% decline in 2015 and category benchmark relative underperformance of negative 1.2% in 2016.

Source: Morning star

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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LICs LICs

Mirrabooka Investments Maintains Its Final Dividend & Declares A Special Dividend

They need an advice. Young married couple talking while sitting on the therapy session with psychologist

Mirrabooka Investments Ltd (ASX: MIR) declared a final dividend of 6.5 cents per share, fully franked, for FY21, in line with the preceding final dividend.

In addition to the final dividend, the company declared a special dividend of 2 cents per share, fully franked, bringing the total dividends for FY21 to 12 cents per share.

The full dividend (final and special) will be collected from capital gains on which the Company is or will be taxed. 

The pre-tax attributable gain (“LIC capital gain”) associated with the dividend is 12.14 cents.

The dividend will trade ex-dividend on July 28, 2021, and will be paid on August 17, 2021.

Mirrabooka Investments Ltd NTA (NET TANGIBLE ASSETS) per share is currently marked at $2.96, dividend yield at 2.40% and PE at 106.92 for the year 2021. 

The current price is $4.16 per share of Mirrabooka investments Ltd.

Company Profile

Mirrabooka Investments Ltd (ASX: MIR) was founded in 1980 by Mr. Robert Mark Freeman and is an Australian based company. Mirrabooka Investments Ltd is a publicly traded investment company that focuses on small and medium-sized businesses in Australia and New Zealand. The company has been in operation since April 1999 and debuted on the ASX on June 28, 2001. Mirrabooka seeks to offer shareholders with medium- to long-term benefits, including strong dividend yields, by making core investments in chosen small and mid-sized businesses. It invests in 50-70 companies outside of the S&P/ASX 50 Leaders Index. 

 (Source: FactSet)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Dividend Stocks Philosophy Technical Picks

Heady (ASX: JHX) Raw Materials Inflation Offering Little Challenge to Hardie in Early Fiscal 2022

After patenting cellulose-reinforced fibre cement in the late 1980s, the Australian company entered the North American market in 1990, establishing its business with the benefit of patent protection. In doing so, the company’s product line has become synonymous with the product category. The firm now enjoys 90% share in fibre cement siding in North America, its largest and most important market, with similar positions in Australia and New Zealand. Fibre cement siding possesses durability advantages and superior aesthetics over vinyl cladding, leading to vinyl’s market share eroding to about 26% today from around 39% in 2003. At this same time, fibre cement’s share has increased to 19%, almost entirely due to increased penetration for Hardie’s product.

Hardie’s siding product range is now in its seventh iteration of product innovation, known as HardieZone, under which the product formulation is tailored to the different climatic zones within North America, increasing durability. Meanwhile, the company assesses its competitors’ product as equivalent to somewhere near its second generation of product, which Hardie released in the mid-1990s. The continued reinvestment in R&D supports Hardie’s strong brand equity and thus perpetuates the price premium that Hardie’s range attracts. 

Financial Strength 

Balance sheet flexibility has improved markedly in early fiscal 2021 despite the economic shock delivered by the coronavirus pandemic. Hardie will return to its regular dividend policy from fiscal 2022 after regular dividends were suspended in early fiscal 2021 in response to the pandemic. Leverage–defined as net debt/EBITDA–stood at 1.0 times at the end of the first quarter of fiscal 2022.Hardie runs a conservative balance sheet with leverage typically within a targeted range of 1-2 net debt/EBITDA. With net debt/EBITDA of 1.0 at the end of the first quarter of fiscal 2022, significant headroom exists relative to Hardie’s leverage covenant, calibrated at a net debt/EBITDA of 3. 

Therefore, Hardie has significant capacity to return surplus capital to shareholders.Hardie’s asbestos-related liability—the AICF trust–has a gross carrying value at fiscal 2021 year-end of USD 1.135 billion and remains an overhang. However, payments to fund the liability are capped at 35% of trailing free cash flow. Narrow-moat James Hardie is off to a flying start in early fiscal 2022 despite substantial inflationary pressures in raw materials and freight which, year-to-date, have shown little sign of abating. Our revised forecast sits slightly above the midpoint of Hardie’s upwardly revised full-year fiscal 2022 net income guidance range of USD 550 million-USD 590 million. Hardie continues to execute impeccably. 

Hardie’s Growth 

First-quarter North American fibre cement volumes rose 21%, tracking significantly above the broader market for exterior wall siding. Reflecting the year-to-date momentum in Hardie’s market share gains, we upgrade our full-year expectations for Hardie’s growth above the North American market index, or PDG, to 9.6% from a prior 7.9%. We lift per share our fair value estimate by 8% to AUD 34.20/USD 25.00, due to the recent depreciation of the Australian dollar. Accordingly, the North American softwood pulp price increased 23% in Hardie’s first quarter to USD 1,598 per tonne. Hardie continues to make progress against its cost savings targets under its ongoing lean manufacturing programme. We continue to expect achievement of USD 340 million in cumulative savings under the lean manufacturing programme by fiscal 2024, a USD 233 million increment over the USD 107 million in incremental cost-out achieved through to the end of fiscal 2021.

Bulls Say’s 

  • James Hardie’s clear leadership in the fibre cement category should drive growth in market share in the North American siding market. We forecast the company retaining its 90% share of the category, while fibre cement climbs to 28% of the total housing market.
  • Hardie’s strong brand equity translates into pricing power, allowing for inflation in manufacturing costs to be easily passed on, thus protecting profitability in the face of imminent input cost inflation.
  • The Fermacell acquisition could finally unlock Europe as an avenue of significant growth following market saturation in North America.

Company Profile 

James Hardie is the world leader in fibre cement products, accounting for roughly 90% of all fibre cement building materials sold in the U.S. It has nine manufacturing plants in eight U.S. states and five across Asia-Pacific. Fibre cement competes with vinyl, wood, and engineered wood products with superior durability and moisture-, fire-, and termite-resistant qualities. The firm is a highly focused single-product company based on primary demand growth, cost-efficient production, and continual innovation of its differentiated range. With saturation of the North American market in sight, the acquisition of Fermacell in early 2018, Europe’s leading fibre gypsum manufacturer, will provide Hardie with a subsequent avenue of growth.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Technology Stocks

Nvidia’s (NASDAQ NVDA) Revenue Continues To Rise, Despite Concerns about Cryptocurrency Demand

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The firm had record showings in both gaming and data center segments, but we are concerned with the surge of demand for Nvidia’s gaming GPUs used in cryptocurrency mining (specifically Ethereal), as we view this application as a volatile one that could lead to lower GPU sales if crypto prices trend down.

Nvidia continues to execute well in growing its data center business thanks to its A100 GPU for Artificial Intelligence and networking products from its 2020 Mellanox acquisition. Nvidia is paying a high multiple for ARM’s earnings. The Fair value estimate of Nvidia is $515 per share. First-quarter sales grew 84% year over year to $5.7 billion, with gaming and data center revenue up 106% and 79%, respectively. Data center sales benefitted from the inclusion of Mellanox and continued adoption of Nvidia’s A100 GPUs. Gross margins during the first quarter grew 100 basis points sequentially thanks to a more favorable product mix. Nvidia’s gaming’s GPUs are receiving an artificial boost from crypto mining that could be difficult to sustain.

The chief growth drivers are expected to be gaming; data center, and crypto mining processors, or CMPs. CMPs are optimized for crypto mining power efficiency and will provide Nvidia’s management some visibility into the contribution of crypto mining to total revenue.

Company’s Future Outlook
We estimate crypto mining related demand contributed around $400 million to $500 million in GPU sales during the quarter. It is expected that the firm’s automotive segment to resume growth in the coming years as its autonomous solutions are adopted and its legacy infotainment business is ramped down. Specifically, Nvidia’s automotive design win pipeline exceeds $8 billion through fiscal 2027. Management expects second-quarter sales to be at a midpoint of $6.3 billion, which implies 63% year-over-year growth and was also ahead of our estimates. For the second quarter, CMP sales are expected to be $400 million. Nvidia’s channel inventories remain lean, and management expects the firm to be supply constrained into the second half of the year. While we anticipate strong growth for Nvidia in the coming quarters, we remain vigilant of signs of weaker crypto-mining demand for its GPUs should crypto prices fall.

Company Profile
Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) is the leading designer of graphics processing units that enhance the experience on computing platforms. The firm’s chips are used in a variety of end markets, including high-end PCs for gaming, data centers, and automotive infotainment systems. In recent years, the firm has broadened its focus from traditional PC graphics applications such as gaming to more complex and favorable opportunities, including artificial intelligence and autonomous driving, which leverage the high-performance capabilities of the firm’s graphics processing units.

(Source: Morningstar)

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Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Global stocks

Raising Our BioNTech (BNTX: NASDAQ) FVE to $172 Following Q2 Update; Forthcoming Oncology Data Could Add Upside

The emerging biotech’s first commercial vaccine, for COVID-19, received its first authorization in December 2020, and its early-stage pipeline and mRNA technology platforms have caught the eye of several large pharmaceutical companies, resulting in collaborations and partnerships. BioNTech’s internal discovery platform is focused on mRNA, including off-the-shelf and personalized mRNA drugs, but opportunistic acquisitions have brought in targeted antibodies and cell therapies as well. As such, BioNTech is not overly reliant on any one key drug candidate or drug class at this point, and it is poised to tackle cancer via many different mechanisms.

Further, the company has a burgeoning vaccine pipeline for infectious diseases. In partnership with the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, BioNTech is developing vaccines for HIV and tuberculosis, and the company’s COVID-19 program in partnership with Pfizer and Fosun Pharma was built off an existing partnership with Pfizer for an influenza vaccine. The COVID-19 vaccine, Comirnaty (BNT162b2), quickly progressed through human trials, culminating in authorization in the United States and Europe in December 2020.

Financial Strength

BioNTech has historically burned through cash to fund research and development of its pipeline. The company has minimal debt on its balance sheet, as it has funded discovery and development with equity issues and collaboration payments from partnerships with large pharmaceutical firms. Outside of BioNTech’s COVID-19 vaccine candidates, we think the earliest approval could arrive in 2023, which would put the company on a path toward steady profitability. Management has taken advantage of a couple of opportunities to acquire early-stage assets and expand its geographic footprint to establish a U.S. research hub at low prices.

BioNTech’s revenue soared to EUR 5.3 billion in the second quarter, with roughly EUR 1 billion in direct revenue for its COVID-19 vaccine in BioNTech territories and EUR 4.1 billion in gross profit share and milestones from partners (chiefly Pfizer, which reported $7.8 billion in COVID-19 vaccine revenue in the quarter). BioNTech now expects full-year revenue from the COVID-19 vaccine of EUR 15.9 billion in 2021. Based on these changes, full global sales of Pfizer/BioNTech’s COVID-19 vaccine of $35 billion in 2021 and $39 billion in 2022, as sales in developing markets and third-dose booster sales to developed markets continue to grow. Increased our assumed probability of approval for Pfizer/ BioNTech’s flu program BNT161 from 60% to 70% given continuing validation of this technology in infectious diseases.

Overall, these changes boost our fair value estimate to $172 per share from $139. BioNTech (and peer Moderna) rapidly building a moat based on novel mRNA technology, although multiple potential competitors, significant uncertainty around the duration of COVID-19 revenue beyond 2022, and ongoing validation of this technology outside of COVID-19 prevent us from assigning BioNTech a moat at this time. While the initial series continues to show 90%+ efficacy at preventing severe disease, efficacy against symptomatic infection has been slowly declining, from a peak of 96% down to 84% in individuals that are more than four months past their second dose. Both Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna have early phase 2 data showing that a third dose of their authorized vaccines significantly boosts neutralizing antibody activity against the original strain and variants, including the delta variant.

Bulls Say’s

BioNTech’s pipeline, which relies on expertise in mRNA and bioinformatics, will be difficult to replicate by competitors.
BioNTech will be able to command a premium price with its personalized cancer therapies, if successful.
The rapid development of COVID-19 vaccine Comirnaty bodes well for the rest of BioNTech’s pipeline and the future of its mRNA research platform.

Company Profile

BioNTech is a Germany-based biotechnology company that focuses on developing cancer therapeutics, including individualized immunotherapy, as well as vaccines for infectious diseases, including COVID-19. The company’s oncology pipeline contains several classes of drugs, including mRNA-based drugs to encode antigens, neoantigens, cytokines, and antibodies; cell therapies; bispecific antibodies; and small-molecule immunomodulators. BioNTech is partnered with several large pharmaceutical companies, including Roche, Eli Lilly, Pfizer, Sanofi, and Genmab. Comirnaty (COVID-19 vaccine) is its first commercialized product.

(Source: Morningstar)
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Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Global stocks

Vinci SA’s (PAR: DG) Strong Construction Market Drives for First Half Recovery & Shares Are Fairly Valued

The concessions business earns high profit margins and enjoys significant barriers to entry. In contrast, the contracting business is less attractive on a stand-alone basis but allows Vinci to draw on its expertise to bid on less competitive concession Greenfield projects, where construction capabilities are needed and thus allow Vinci to selectively bid for higher-margin contracting projects compared with pure-play contracting firms.

Vinci’s highly profitable acquisition of its motorway concession portfolio from the French government in 2006 has formed the backbone of the firm over the past 15 years. However, subsequent public disapproval of the deal has seen the state become less generous in awarding long-term extensions to Vinci’s existing network. Mergers and acquisitions have helped Vinci become the second-largest airport operator. The acquisition of the energy contracting division of ACS will provide Vinci with exposure to the fast-growing renewable energy sector as well as eight concessions mainly in electrical transmission.

Financial Strength

Vinci has been able to withstand the worst of global travel restrictions, which have kept earnings from the group’s concessions business heavily depressed, without a significant impact on the group’s balance sheet. Vinci has enough liquidity to meet financial and operating requirements despite low visibility on the duration of the recovery for the concession segment. Vinci holds EUR 9 billion of cash and cash equivalents, which is enough to cover debt repayments until 2025. Vinci also has access to an unused EUR 8 billion credit facility, which brings Vinci’s total liquidity to EUR 17.3 billion at the end of June 2021. Both Vinci’s airport and auto routes businesses have experienced a sharp upturn in traffic once travel restrictions have eased, which is expected to continue for the rest of 2021. Vinci’s healthy balance sheet has allowed the company to refinance debt at extremely attractive rates.

Bull Says

Vinci’s portfolio of diversified concession assets is a unique opportunity for investors to own irreplaceable infrastructure across multiple assets. Returns are supported by long-term concession contracts and favorable demographics.
Vinci’s balance sheet and global presence will allow the company to be well-positioned to boost their portfolio of high-quality assets, should governments look to privatize ageing infrastructure.

A record high order book of EUR 43 billion for the contracting segment provides earnings visibility as traffic from the concessions business recovers.

Company Profile

Vinci DG (XPAR) is one of the world’s largest investors in transport infrastructure. Significant concession assets include 4,400 kilometers of toll roads in France and 45 airports across 12 countries, making Vinci the world’s second-largest airport operator in terms of managed passenger numbers. The concessions business contributes less than one fifth of group revenue but the majority of operating profit. Vinci’s contracting business is made up of three divisions, offering a broad variety of engineering and construction services.

(Source: Morningstar)
General Advice Warning
Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Global stocks

Japanese General Insurers Tokio Marine (8766:TKS) Report Stronger-Than-Expected April-June on Rate Hikes, Fewer Accidents

and JPY 5,000 for Sompo Holdings (7% upside) after the three Japanese general insurers reported strong results for April-June, the first quarter in the fiscal year ending March 2022. The shares have risen 4%, 7%, and 13%, respectively, since we published a 51-page report “Pandemic Impact on Japanese Insurers Has Passed” on June 30. 

Economic profit for April-June reached 39% of full-year guidance for Tokio Marine, 48% for MS&AD, and 43% for Sompo, while net profit on a financial accounting basis was 51% of full-year guidance for Tokio Marine, 52% for MS&AD, and 46% for Sompo.  The insurers have thus earned more than 40% of their full-year guidance in the first three months of the year; however, any upward revisions to guidance would likely come later in the year given that insurers’ quarterly earnings are subject to short-term fluctuations from seasonality and technical factors.

The main driver of the stronger-than-expected results was the core domestic nonlife business, which benefited from a continued lower frequency of auto accidents, adjustments to pricing in the voluntary auto line (though we expect price cuts ahead), and robust rate hikes in fire insurance to address rising costs from water leakage and damage. 

Rate hikes in overseas insurance as the global market hardens were a secondary driver. The safe completion of the Tokyo Olympics confirms that potential large losses that might have occurred had the event been canceled are no longer a concern.

Company Profile

Dating back to 1879, Tokio Marine is Japan’s oldest insurance company and was its top property and casualty insurer in terms of market share for many decades. After mergers of its smaller rivals in the past few years, the company is now roughly the same size in the domestic nonlife market as MS&AD and Sompo Holdings, but it remains the most valuable listed Japanese insurer in terms of market capitalization due to its larger overseas business portfolio. The majority of its overseas business is in the U.S., where it has purchased four specialty insurers since 2008: Philadelphia Consolidated, Delphi Financial, HCC, and PURE. It is a member of the Mitsubishi keiretsu group and holds minority stakes in a number of group companies that also rank among its shareholders.

(Source: Morningstar)

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Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

Duke Energy Corp’s (NYSE: DUK) Increase in FVE to $99 per share After 2nd Quarters Earnings

In North Carolina, Duke’s largest service territory, we view the regulatory framework as average and continue to expect Duke will receive support for its investments in the state. In early 2021, regulators approved Duke’s settlement agreement that resolves historical recovery of coal ash costs and provides clarity on future recovery.  Indiana remains constructive. Regulators approved a peer-average allowed return on equity. The subsidiary is allowed recovery for investments for renewable energy and recovery on and of investments for coal ash remediation, with a forward-looking test year. 

Management recently entered into an agreement to sell 19.9% of the entity at an attractive valuation. Duke’s $60 billion, five-year capital investment plan is focused on clean energy, as the company works toward net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 and net-zero methane emissions by 2030. Management notes growth opportunities beyond its five-year forecast, noting expectations for $65 billion to $75 billion of capital expenditures helping to support 7% annual rate base growth. Management is transitioning Duke away from coal generation. The company, which has among the largest coal fleets in the industry, aims to reduce its coal fleet by up to 70% and install up to 20 gig watts of renewable energy by 2030, depending on the outcome of its Carolina Integrated Resource Plan.

Financial Strength

Duke Energy Corp’s (NYSE: DUK) Increase in FVE to $99 per share after 2nd quarter earnings. We expect $60 billion of capital investment over the next five years. The company has manageable long-term debt maturities. Plans to sell a minority interest in Duke Energy Indiana helps reduce equity needs to fund this plan.  Duke has ample cash liquidity and borrowing capacity available under its master revolving credit facility. We believe Duke’s dividend is well covered with its regulated utilities’ earnings. Our expectations for 3.5% average annual dividend growth will represent a 70% payout based on our 2025 earnings estimate. Duke’s liquidity position and cash flow generation should give investors confidence that it can maintain and grow its dividend.

Bull Says

  • Duke’s regulated utilities provide a stable source of earnings. The company’s large capital expenditure plan should drive rate base and earnings growth for the next several years. We think management’s 5% to 7% earnings growth target from 2021 to 2025 is achievable. 
  • The company operates in mostly constructive regulatory jurisdictions, which account for most of the company’s revenue. 
  • Duke’s management team has focused on core regulated operations and growth investments.

Company Profile

Duke Energy Corp (NYSE: DUK) is one of the largest U.S. utilities, with regulated utilities in the Carolinas, Indiana, Florida, Ohio, and Kentucky that deliver electricity and gas to more than 7 million customers. Duke operates in three major segments: electric utilities and infrastructure; gas utilities and infrastructure; and commercial renewable.

 (Source: Morningstar)

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Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

Raising Targa Resources (NYSE: TRGP) FVE for Targa after increasing our G&P volumes to reflect the recovery in 2021

The firm managed through a very difficult 2020 via sharply reduced capital spending, a nearly 90% dividend reduction, and expense cuts. So far in 2021, it has done a good job, reducing debt by nearly $800 million. Targa is by no means particularly conservative on capital spending plans–its initial 2021 growth spending plans were twice our original expectations, as the rest of the midstream space hunkers down. The firm has also hinted that it may spend virtually all its excess cash on rebuying assets from its Stonepeak joint venture in early 2022 at a cost of nearly $1 billion.

LPG exports are largely contracted out to 2022 and sent mainly to Asian and Latin American markets. The Grand Prix NGL pipeline will be a highly attractive asset tha takes advantage of Targa’s position in the Permian Basin to move over 350,000 barrels per day of NGLs by our estimates in 2021 (expandable to 550,000 b/d) to Mont Belvieu, and links Targa assets at both ends of the pipe, giving it more control over the molecule and ability to earn multiple fees. The Grand Prix pipeline will reduce Targa’s costs for NGLs, as it will no longer pay third-party tariffs to transport its NGLs to market.

Financial Strength

After updating our model to reflect Targa’s higher guidance, our fair value estimate increases to $38 per share. Targa’s second-quarter results benefited from higher Permian gas volumes, thanks primarily to higher activity by private operators. As a result, Targa increased its 2021 EBITDA guidance to a midpoint of $1.95 billion from its prior midpoint guidance of $1.85 billion last quarter. The incremental cash is being applied smartly toward debt reduction for the time being, as Targa’s 2021 leverage target falls to 3.5 times from 4 times last quarter. 

Total consolidated debt fell to $7 billion from $7.4 billion sequentially. Year-to-date debt reduction totals $780 million, which is impressive. Targa also announced a new 250-million-cubic-feet-per-day plant in the Permian to be on line in early 2022 while holding 2021 expected capital spending flat. 

Peers tend to be around 75%-85% investment-grade or letter of credit-backed.Total liquidity at the end of the second quarter was $2.9 billion with no major maturities until 2026. Targa is now targeting leverage of 3-4 times as well as an investment-grade rating, which is a marked shift from prior commentary.

 Leverage now stands at 3.8 times at the end of the second quarter, and Targa expects it to be around 3.5 times by the end of the year, which our current model supports.However, it’s not clear whether Targa can achieve both its new leverage goals and execute its expected repurchase of the joint venture assets from Stonepeak (included in its May presentation), which could take place as early as the first quarter of 2022.

Bulls Say’s 

  • Targa is leveraged to the high-growth Permian, and its Grand Prix pipeline is expected to increase volumes 25% in 2021.
  • Targa has substantial excess cash after its dividends and capital spending plans in 2021 to allocate toward reducing leverage.
  • Targa is a significant fractionation player at the attractive Mont Belvieu hub.

Company Profile

Targa Resources is a midstream firm that primarily operates gathering and processing assets with substantial positions in the Permian, Stack, Scoop, and Bakken plays. It has 813,000 barrels a day of gross fractionation capacity at Mont Belvieu and operates a liquefied petroleum gas export terminal. The Grand Prix natural gas liquids pipeline recently entered full service.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

Viper Energy Partners (NASDAQ: VNOM) Acquires Attractive Acreage for $500 Million from Swallowtail

investment stockbroker risk analysis. Financial analysis using phone app and laptop. Market trading profit.

The deal is a $500 million cash and stock (55% stock, 45% cash) purchase of 2,302 net royalty acres in the Midland basin from Swallowtail Royalties, a private mineral rights firm where its acreage deals are financed by Blackstone funds. The price on a per acre basis is at over $200,000 per acre, roughly 80% higher than historical pricing and 40% higher than its last significant deal activity in May 2020.

Despite the high per-acre price, Viper has advantages, as 65% of the acres are operated by Diamondback with a net royalty rate of 3.6%. The value of the deal is demonstrated by the fact that Viper was able to offer a clear long-term growth trajectory for its Diamondback acres, substantially reducing uncertainty around future cash flows, but it wasn’t able to do the same for its non-Diamondback acres. 

The Diamondback development plan is essentially minimal production today to 1,000 barrels of oil per day (bo/d) in 2022 to over 5000 bo/d by 2024. We expect this path to generate a solid amount of value for Viper. 

Company’s Future Outlook

 At first glance, it is expected some modest upside to our fair value estimate, while maintaining our narrow moat rating. The deal is expected to be completed by the early fourth quarter, and expected post-deal leverage will be about 2 times, which we consider reasonable. Based on Diamondback’s current development plan, average net oil production in 2022 is expected to be over 1000 bo/d and Production is expected to approach 5000 bo/d by 2024.

Company Profile

Viper Energy Partners (NASDAQ: VNOM) was formed by Diamondback Energy in 2014 to own mineral royalty interests in the Permian Basin. At the end of 2020, Viper owns 24,350 net royalty acres that produced 26,551 boe/d. Proved reserves are mostly oil, and at the end of 2019 stand at 99,392 mboe. Viper’s mineral and royalty interests give it significant exposure to perpetual ownership of high margin, primarily undeveloped assets with no capital requirements to generate its long-term free cash flow. Viper is a variable distribution partnership that is taxed like a corporation in the United States.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.