Musk Parting from Twitter Purchase, but Twitter Remains Attractive; FVE Downs to $47

Business Strategy & Outlook:

Twitter has captured the attention of nearly 200 million daily active users, including prominent celebrities and public figures worldwide. Its access to, and interactions around, real-time information and content create value for its users and for advertisers. While Twitter user growth has accelerated since 2018, a potential slowdown remains a concern. Slower user growth could make higher user monetization more difficult as advertisers may allocate a bit more toward other platforms such as Snap, which has a faster-growing user base. Twitter might have carved out an economic moat. Twitter is an open distribution platform for (and a conversational one around) short-form text, image, and video content. Its users can access real-time information regarding a wide array of topics or news events. They can also share information and content, interact with content, and express their reactions to other Twitter users. These types of interactions allow Twitter to compile more data about its users, which is then licensed and/or utilized by Twitter and advertisers to launch online brands and targeted ads.

While Twitter remains one of the main real-time online content distribution platforms, its user base is smaller than other social networks such as Facebook (including Instagram) and Snap’s Snapchat. As such, Twitter is not benefiting from increased spending on mobile and online video advertising as much as its peers. Product enhancements such as the Explore tab may have helped increase initial user engagement and improve user retention, but the firm’s potential network effect is weakening as its user base shrinks in size relative to rivals, which could lead to generating less data and drive advertisers to spend more on other platforms. However, Twitter has introduced some subscription products which could lessen dependence on ad revenue.

Financial Strengths:

Twitter has a strong balance sheet with net cash of $5.9 billion. The firm generates cash from operations, and expects it to generate free cash flow going forward. Twitter’s free cash flow to equity/revenue ratio averaged 18% over the past three years, and they projected this ratio to improve to over 26% in 2025.

Bulls Say:

Growth in ad revenue per user remains strong at Twitter, more than offsetting the deceleration in user growth.
Agreements with various professional sports leagues provide a platform for interaction and conversation about the games, which may attract more premium content providers to use the Twitter platform.
Investments in product enhancements and video content could return the monthly active user growth rate to the double digits.

Company Description:

Twitter is an open distribution platform for and a conversational platform around short-form text (a maximum of 280 characters), image, and video content. Its users can create different social networks based on their interests, thereby creating an interest graph. Many prominent celebrities and public figures have Twitter accounts. Twitter generates revenue from advertising (90%) and licensing the user data that it compiles (10%). (Source: Morningstar)

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