DaVita Stays Steady on Cautious Guidance for 2022; Shares Fairly Valued

Business Strategy and Outlook

After selling the DaVita Medical Group in 2019, DaVita focuses almost exclusively on providing services to end-stage renal disease, or ESRD, patients primarily in the United States with an expanding international footprint. Over several decades, DaVita has built the largest network of dialysis clinics in the U.S., and although COVID-19-related mortality concerns look likely to constrain results through 2022, Morningstar analysts view DaVita’s long-term prospects as solid.

Once COVID-19 concerns dissipate, Morningstar analysts expect DaVita to get back to more normalized growth trends driven primarily by ESRD trends. Analysts think low- to mid-single-digit revenue growth is likely for DaVita in the long run based on the continued expansion of the U.S. dialysis patient population, mild revenue per treatment growth, and ongoing international expansion. These expectations include ongoing expansion of at-home treatments, and we think DaVita can even benefit from extending the at-home treatment stage for patients, despite its clinic infrastructure. At-home patients still have relationships with clinics and are more likely to continue working and, in turn, remain on more profitable commercial insurance plans for a more substantial part of the 33 months where that is possible before Medicare automatically takes the lead on reimbursement for ESRD treatments. Eventually, most ESRD patients will need in-clinic therapy, too, unless they receive a kidney transplant. Of note, supply and demand for transplants remain greatly mismatched with the average wait list time around four years. But if those dynamics change, DaVita may even be able to benefit, as it has invested in early-stage initiatives to improve transplants. And in general, we think DaVita stands to benefit from the continued growth in the ESRD population however they are treated, and it is even pursuing integrated care models to gain a bigger piece of the treatment pie in the long run.

With these factors in mind, management has highlighted mid-single-digit operating income and high-single-digit to low-double-digit earnings per share growth targets from 2021 to 2025, which is roughly in line with our assumptions during that period, as well.

DaVita Stays Steady on Cautious Guidance for 2022; Shares Fairly Valued

After trimming guidance for 2021 and expressing caution on 2022 during its third-quarter call, DaVita turned in solid operating results and guided in line with our 2022 expectations on its fourth-quarter call. Morningstar analyst boosts its fair value estimate to $116 per share from $110 primarily to reflect a change in our long-term U.S. corporate tax rate estimate after previously assuming the tax rate would rise on Democratic policy initiatives, which appear unlikely now. Also, our fair value depends on business conditions normalizing in 2023 and beyond, and despite the near-term constraints, Morningstar analysts continue to see significant intangible assets and cost advantages around DaVita’s top-tier position in dialysis services, which informs our narrow moat rating on the firm.

Financial Strength

Like many healthcare services providers, DaVita operates with significant leverage, especially when considering lease obligations. DaVita owed $8.9 billion of debt and held $1.2 billion of cash and short-term investments as of September 2021, or in the middle of its net leverage target range of 3.0 to 3.5 times. Its operating lease obligations of $3.1 billion add another turn, roughly, to leverage. After refinancing many of its obligations, DaVita’s maturity schedule appears easily manageable, though, with big maturities in 2024 ($1.4 billion) and 2026 ($2.6 billion) but limited maturities otherwise. During that time frame, Morningstar analysts expect DaVita to generate at least $1 billion annually of free cash flow, so the company could handle those maturities as they come due through internal means. However, given the firm’s large share repurchase plans, Morningstar analysts think DaVita will seek to refinance its obligations coming due. After $2.4 billion of share repurchases in 2019, the company made another $1.4 billion of share repurchases in 2020 and $0.9 billion of repurchases through September 2021. The company anticipates making significant share repurchases going forward to boost its adjusted EPS growth (8% to 14% goal from 2021 to 2025) above its operating income prospects (3% to 7% goal from 2021 to 2025). It had $1.0 billion remaining on its share repurchase authorization as of September 2021.

Bulls Say

Excluding recent COVID-19-mortality challenges, we expect the ESRD patient population to grow at a healthy rate in the U.S. and around the globe for the long run, which should benefit DaVita.
DaVita enjoys top-tier status in the essential dialysis business, and we do not expect competitive dynamics to negatively affect that attractive position anytime soon.
While growing at-home care could change its business model a bit, DaVita could also benefit from ESRD patients being able to continue working and staying on commercial insurance plans.

Company Profile

DaVita is the largest provider of dialysis services in the United States, boasting market share that eclipses 35% when measured by both patients and clinics. The firm operates over 3,100 facilities worldwide, mostly in the U.S., and treats over 240,000 patients globally each year. Government payers dominate U.S. dialysis reimbursement. DaVita receives approximately 69% of U.S. sales at government (primarily Medicare) reimbursement rates, with the remaining 31% coming from commercial insurers. However, while commercial insurers represented only about 10% of the U.S. patients treated, they represented nearly all of the profits generated by DaVita in the U.S. dialysis business.

(Source: Morningstar)

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Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.