Home Depot should continue to capture sales growth, bolstered by an aging housing stock

Business Strategy & Outlook

Home Depot is the world’s largest home improvement retailer, on track to deliver $157 billion in revenue in 2022. It continues to benefit from healthy long-term housing dynamics and improvements in its merchandising and distribution network. The firm earns a wide economic moat rating due to its economies of scale and brand equity. While Home Depot has produced strong historical returns as a result of its scale, operational excellence and concise merchandising remain key tenets underlying the modest margin expansion forecast. Its flexible distribution network will help elevate the firm’s brand intangible asset, with faster time to delivery improving the do-it-yourself experience and market delivery centers catering to the pro business. The success of ongoing initiatives should allow for modest operating margin expansion above pre pandemic levels longer term, despite inflationary pressures. Home Depot should continue to capture sales growth, bolstered by an aging housing stock, a shortage in home inventory, and rising home prices, even when lapping robust COVID-19 demand. Other internal catalysts for topline growth could come from the firm’s efficient supply chain, improved merchandising technology, and penetration of adjacent customer product segments (through the acquisition of HD Supply).

Expansion of newer categories (like textiles from the Company Store acquisition) as well as existing ones (such as appliances) could also drive demand. Perpetual improvements in the omnichannel experience should support the firm’s competitive position, even as existing-home sales and turnover become more volatile. The commitment to better merchandising and an efficient supply chain has led the firm to achieve operating margins and adjusted returns on invested capital, including goodwill, of 15.2% and 34.9%, respectively, in 2021 (both quantitative peaks). Additionally, Home Depot’s focus on cross-selling products in both its DIY and its maintenance, repair, and operations channel should support stable pricing and volatility in the sales base, helping achieve further operating margin lift, with the metric remaining above 15% on average over the next decade.

Financial Strengths

Since the beginning of the pandemic, Home Depot has had no concerns tapping the credit markets. The company raised $5 billion in long-term debt in March 2020 to ensure it could weather COVID-19 without disruption, and raised another roughly $3 billion in the fourth quarter of 2020 to help facilitate the acquisition of HD Supply. In 2021, Home Depot issued another $3 billion in debt. This led the firm to end fiscal 2021 with a total debt load of around $40 billion and a debt/capital ratio of 1.04. There aren’t any concerns about near-term cash constraints as forward debt maturities are staggered, with just $1.2 billion of short and long-term debt maturing in the next 12 months (from Oct. 30, 2022). Moreover, EBIT is forecast to cover interest expense 15 times at the end of 2022. Strong free cash flow to equity that has averaged about 10% of sales over the past five years supports higher leverage, and the company will stay within its targeted adjusted debt/EBITDAR metric of 2 times over the long term. The balance sheet’s $25 billion in net property, plant, and equipment provides an asset base to secure more debt if necessary. Given Home Depot’s ability to generate tremendous free cash flow to equity, the management has no problem facilitating dividend payments and remaining near its long-term dividend payout ratio target of 55%. Given the outsize performance despite COVID-19, share repurchases will continue, with the new $15 billion share repurchase program authorized in August 2022.

Bulls Say

Home Depot’s focus on distribution and merchandising should increase productivity and grow domestic share in a stable housing market, helping stimulate sales and protect margins.
The company has returned $67 billion to its shareholders through dividends and share buybacks over the past five years, above 20% of its market cap. Home Depot would be returning another $90 billion to shareholders over the next five years.
The addressable MRO market is around $100 billion, and Interline and HD Supply make up a low-double-digit share, leaving meaningful upside up for grabs.

Company Description

Home Depot is the world’s largest home improvement specialty retailer, operating more than 2,300 warehouse-format stores offering more than 30,000 products in store and 1 million products online in the United States, Canada, and Mexico. Its stores offer numerous building materials, home improvement products, lawn and garden products, and decor products and provide various services, including home improvement installation services and tool and equipment rentals. The acquisition of distributor Interline Brands in 2015 allowed Home Depot to enter the maintenance, repair, and operations business, which has been expanded through the tie-up with HD Supply (2020). The addition of the Company Store brought textile exposure to Home Depot’s lineup.

(Source: Morningstar)

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