Raising the Valuation of Carlsberg After Margins Expand in First Half

Business Strategy & Outlook

Until recently, Carlsberg had underperformed its close peers. Although it has a very strong competitive positioning in its native Denmark and other Scandinavian markets, in other major developed markets it is a second-tier player and has suffered shelf space loss, including the high-profile removal of the flagship brand from Tesco’s shelves in 2015. In addition, Carlsberg’s second-largest market, Russia, has been undergoing volume declines since 2012 due to a decadelong government clampdown on the availability and affordability of beer and a shrinking drinking age population. Returns on invested capital were regularly below the cost of capital, and the low-teens operating margin was below that of the firm’s largest competitors. Yet, under new management at around the same time as the Tesco incident, Carlsberg has come out fighting and now looks in far better shape. SAIL’22, an umbrella for strategic initiatives designed to cut costs and reignite growth, has been a coherent set of strategies to deliver the margin opportunity that for several years was possible. Progress has been decent, with organic sales having grown by over 3% annually over the five years of the program, in spite of the COVID-19-related declines in 2020, and almost 200 basis points being added to the operating margin, which stood at 16.3% on an adjusted basis in 2021. Benchmarking against competitors, however, there is further room for improvement, and the encouragement was that the recently unveiled SAIL’27 strategy suggests more profitability improvement to come. Mix should play a pivotal role. Some of Carlsberg’s markets, including China, are undergoing structural premiumization, and Carlsberg’s premium and above portfolio, including the Tuborg and 1664 brands, as well as line extensions to the Carlsberg brand, should continue to grow at rates well above the market. Medium-term guidance under SAIL’27 is 3%-5% organic revenue growth. The medium-term growth slightly below the midpoint of that guidance, primarily because of Carlsberg’s heavy presence in developed markets, in which beer is likely to lose share to other categories including wine and spirits.

Financial Strengths

Carlsberg is in sound financial shape, and after a multiyear period of paying down debt, it is now less leveraged than Heineken and AB InBev. Following the S&N acquisition in 2008, Carlsberg’s net debt/EBITDA ratio increased to 4.1 times. Since that time, debt has fallen from DKK 48 billion to just DKK 29 billion at year-end 2021, when the adjusted net debt/EBITDA ratio stood at just under 1.4 times. Under the SAIL’22 initiative, management targets a net debt/EBITDA ratio of 2 times, so Carlsberg has some room for releveraging for M&A, increasing the dividend, or repurchasing shares. Carlsberg increased its annual dividend 60% in 2018 and after a further 9% increase in 2021, its payout ratio was 49% last year. This is more or less in line with the large-cap consumer staples peer group. The free cash flow to average over DKK 12 billion over the next five years, and with leverage under control and an average of DKK 4 billion paid out in dividends at the new annualized rate, Carlsberg now has more balance sheet optionality than it has had in several years. The company completed a share-repurchase program of DKK 4 billion and announced an additional program to repurchase a further DKK 1 billion in the first quarter of 2022. Acquisitions could be one use of the company’s excess cash. That said, it showed little interest publicly in the assets being divested by AB InBev as part of the SABMiller acquisition, and most deals have been bolt-on in nature in recent years. The Grolsch and Peroni brands, sold to Asahi, had the potential to be value-accretive to Carlsberg. With cash and stock, Carlsberg could enter into a transformative deal, especially as the company delivers on its SAIL’22 and SAIL’27 targets of strengthening the core business.

Bulls Say

Although Carlsberg is under indexed in premium segments, it does have a presence with brands such as Tuborg and 1664 Blanc, and the premiumization of the portfolio could be seen as a long-term opportunity.
Carlsberg is present in the attractive market of Vietnam and has the opportunity to raise its economic interest in its local subsidiary, Habeco.
Management’s medium-term guidance around its SAIL’27 strategy implies that there is more margin expansion to come in the years ahead, which will further close the financial performance gap to Heineken.

Company Description

Carlsberg is the fourth-largest brewer in the world following the combination of Anheuser-Busch InBev and SABMiller, with major operations in Russia, Europe, and Asia. It holds leading shares in Russia, Scandinavia, Laos, Cambodia, and parts of western China. Its key brands include Carlsberg, Tuborg, Baltika, Holsten, and Somersby. The company’s 2021 beverage volume was split among Northern and Western Europe (30%), Eastern Europe (39%), and Asia (31%).

(Source: Morningstar)

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