Improving Wireless Conditions and Oi Drive Telefonica Brasil’s Q2 Results

Business Strategy & Outlook

The Telefonica Brasil (Vivo) is one of the strongest telecom carriers in Brazil, vying with America Movil to offer converged wireless and fixed-line services across much of the country. But the market faces several challenges, including stiff competition, a fragmented fixed-line industry, and general economic weakness that has also hurt the value of the Brazilian real in recent years. The plan to carve up Oi’s wireless assets appears to be nearing completion, promising to significantly improve the industry’s structure, cutting the number of wireless players to three. While results will likely remain volatile, the Vivo will prosper as Brazilians continue to adopt wireless and fixed-line data services. Vivo is the largest wireless carrier in Brazil by far, holding 33% of the wireless market, including 37% of the more lucrative postpaid business. The firm generated about 60% more wireless service revenue in 2020 than America Movil or TIM, its closest rivals. The three carriers have agreed to split up the wireless assets of Oi, the distant fourth-place operator that has been in bankruptcy protection. If successful, the transaction would remove a sub-scale player from the industry.

With three large carriers remaining, the competition will grow increasingly rational, solidifying the pricing discipline seen recently. Vivo’s share would also expand to about 38%, adding additional scale that should benefit margins and returns on capital. In the fixed-line business, Vivo has struggled recently. Its share of the broadband business has slipped to 15% from 27% five years ago as it has lost customers in areas where its network is older and less capable and upstarts are investing aggressively to build fiber. Vivo is investing aggressively as well, though, at its own fiber network now reaches nearly 20 million homes, nearly 30% of the country. The firm has numerous initiatives in place, including an infrastructure joint venture, with plans to build to nearly 10 million by the end of 2024, but it remains to be seen how many carriers will be vying for these customers with networks of their own.

Financial Strengths

Vivo’s financial health is excellent, as the firm has rarely taken on material debt. The net debt load increased to BRL 4.4 billion following the acquisition of GVT in 2015, but even this amounted to less than 0.5 times EBITDA. Cash flow has been used to allow leverage to drift lower since then. At the end of 2021, the firm held BRL 500 million more in cash than it has debt outstanding, excluding capitalized operating leases. Even with the capitalized value of operating lease commitments, net debt stands at BRL 10.4, equal to 0.6 times EBITDA. Even after funding its share of the Oi transaction and assuming no incremental benefit to EBITDA, net financial leverage would stand at only 0.8 times. Parent Telefonica has control of Vivo’s capital structure. While Telefonica’s balance sheet has improved markedly in recent years, the firm still carries a sizable debt load and faces growth challenges in its core European operations. Vivo aims to pay out at least 100% of net income in dividends and the distribution has averaged BRL 5.5 billion annually over the past three years. The firm plans to pay out BRL 6.3 billion in 2022. If the business hit a rough patch, though, the dividend may not prove to be in shareholders’ interest relative to other uses of cash. For Telefonica, though, moving cash up to the parent directly helps its balance sheet. Fortunately, dividend growth isn’t sacrosanct. Reported net income declined in 2019 and the payout in 2020, based on the prior year’s income, declined about 15%. The dividend declined another 7% in 2021 based on 2020 earnings. These cuts have come despite ample free cash flow generation. The dividend would have consumed only 55% of 2020 free cash flow if the 2019 payout had been maintained. Vivo also has a share buyback program but repurchases have been minimal recently. The firm repurchased BRL 496 million in 2021, by far it largest outlay over the past several years. The buyback in 2022 is again expected to be around.

Bulls Say

Vivo is the largest telecom carrier in Brazil and benefits from scale-based cost advantages in both the wireless and fixed-line markets.
The firm is well-positioned to benefit as consumers demand increased wireless data capacity. Its network in Brazil is first-rate and its reputation for quality is second-to-none.
Owning a high-quality fiber network enables Vivo to offer converged services throughout much of the country, while buttressing its wireless backhaul, improving network speeds and capacity.

Company Description

Telefonica Brasil, known as Vivo, is the largest wireless carrier in Brazil with nearly 85 million customers, equal to about 33% market share. The firm is strongest in the postpaid business, where it has 50 million customers, about 37% share of this market. It is the incumbent fixed-line telephone operator in Sao Paulo state and, following the acquisition of GVT, the owner of an extensive fiber network across the country. The firm provides internet access to 6 million households on this network. Following its parent Telefonica’s footsteps, Vivo is cross-selling fixed-line and wireless services as a converged offering. The firm also sells pay-tv services to its fixed-line customers.

(Source: Morningstar)

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