Dick’s investments in new full-line and specialty stores have failed to attract enough new customers.

Business Strategy & Outlook

The no-moat Dick’s Sporting Goods lacks an edge as sporting goods are sold through an increasing number of channels. Although its sales have soared during the pandemic, the impact is temporary, as growth in sporting goods retail has generally been minimal due to external competition. According to IBISWorld, sporting goods retail sales experienced average annual growth of just 1.3% in the five years before the pandemic. Dick’s competitors include e-commerce operators (such as wide-moat Amazon), mass retailers (such as wide-moat Walmart), specialty stores (narrow-moat Lululemon, Foot Locker, Bass Pro Shops/Cabela’s), and branded stores and owned e-commerce from major vendors. As an example of the latter, narrow-moat Adidas’ direct-to-consumer business constituted 39% of its 2021 sales, up from 25% in 2015. Further, the COVID-19 crisis has accelerated manufacturers’ direct-to-consumer efforts, as evidenced by Foot Locker’s acknowledgement that wide-moat Nike will reduce shipments to the firm. One cannot believe Dick’s market position is strong enough to prevent vendors from offering their merchandise in alternate channels. Its compound average yearly sales growth of 3% over the next decade, at the lower end of projected U.S. activewear growth of 3%-5%.

Dick’s recent profitability has greatly improved, but one cannot not think the gains can hold. The firm recorded a 16.5% operating margin in 2021, but this as anomalous. In 2013, Dick’s forecast its operating margin would increase to 10.5% by 2017 from 9.0% in 2012, but its actual operating margins were only in the midsingle digits in the years before the pandemic. The 2021 operating margin was the peak level and expect its operating margins will trend downward over time due to a lack of pricing power. Ultimately, one cannot think the firm needs such a large store base (about 860 stores) especially as its e-commerce has risen during the pandemic (21% of sales in 2021, up from 16% in 2019). The Dick’s investments in new full-line and specialty stores have failed to attract enough new customers.

Financial Strengths

The Dick’s is in excellent financial shape. To conserve cash while stores were temporarily closed during the pandemic, Dick’s furloughed employees, cut its planned capital expenditures, reduced salaries, and suspended its share repurchases. In April 2020, it shored up its liquidity further by completing a $575 million convertible bond offering at an interest rate of 3.25% (matures in 2025). Then, in early 2022, the firm issued $1.5 billion in bonds, with half carrying a 3.15% interest rate and maturing in 2032 and the other half carrying a 4.1% interest rate and maturing in 2052. After this offering, Dick’s ended April 2022 with $2.25 billion in cash and equivalents, long-term debt of $1.9 billion, and about $1.6 billion in available borrowing capacity under its revolver. The firm may retire the convertible debt when it becomes callable in 2023. The Dick’s will produce significant free cash flow, which it will return to shareholders as dividends and share repurchases after the crisis has passed. Dick’s will generate $8 billion in free cash flow to equity over the next decade and will use this cash to repurchase about $5.5 billion in stock and issue about $2.6 billion in dividends. Dick’s suspended repurchases during the pandemic, but then spent nearly $1.2 billion on repurchases in 2021, its largest amount in any year by far. Unfortunately, the average price paid was $109 per share, which was possibly inefficient at well above the fair value estimates and historical price levels. For comparison, due to the large share price increase, Dick’s consumed about $400 million in cash in buybacks in 2019 but repurchased more shares than it did in 2021. The annual capital expenditures will average about $450 million (3.5% of sales) over the next five years as Dick’s opens a few stores per year, invests in e-commerce, and renovates existing locations.

Bulls Say

Dick’s is the largest pure sporting goods chain in the U.S. Its has a large loyalty program that is integrated with that of Nike. Dick’s has a strong business in high school and youth sports.

Dick’s is replacing hunting with women’s activewear and other apparel in some stores. Popular activewear probably has better margin and growth prospects than hunting.

Dick’s has adapted well to a market that has changed during the pandemic. Its digital sales skyrocketed to about $2.6 billion in sales in 2021 (21% of total), up from about $1.4 billion in 2019 (16% of total).

Company Description

Dick’s Sporting Goods retails athletic apparel, footwear, and equipment for sports. Dick’s operates digital platforms, about 730 stores under its namesake brand (including outlet stores), and about 130 specialty stores under the Golf Galaxy, Public Lands, and Field & Stream names. Dick’s carries private-label merchandise and national brands such as Nike, The North Face, Under Armour, Callaway Golf, and TaylorMade. Based in the Pittsburgh area, Dick’s was founded in 1948 by the father of current executive chairman and controlling shareholder Edward Stack.

(Source: Morningstar)

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