Ferragamo’s New CEO Has Similar Goals to Predecessors but a Bigger Budget; Shares Fairly Valued

Business Strategy & Outlook

Salvatore Ferragamo is an Italian monobrand company mainly known for its footwear and accessories. The firm benefits from relatively strong control over distribution (almost 70% of revenue is retail, versus more than 70% for Burberry, Prada, and Gucci, but in line with Hugo Boss), while its strong

representation in airport locations (about 150 travel retail stores) positions it well to benefit from growth in global travel flows and tourist luxury spending (about half of industry spending is done while travelling).

The Ferragamo has not carved a moat. It is a relatively small player in the fragmented luxury footwear category (43% of revenue). The luxury footwear industry is fragmented and largely wholesale (thus prone to discounting), with fast product life cycles, exposing industry players to fashion risk. The leather goods category (44% of Ferragamo’s revenue) as more conspicuous, but Ferragamo is much less established there than market leaders (with 1% market share versus over 15% for Louis Vuitton, 10% for Gucci and 6.5% for Hermes). Moreover, its more affordable price points (EUR 800-1,500 handbags versus EUR 800-4,000 for luxury peers) reduce the prestige value of purchases. The Ferragamo’s pricing power as in line with or toward the lower end of a luxury coverage.

The company is taking actions that could bring it back to the industry average growth after several years of underperformance. The actions such as increasing the firm’s share of “newness” to engage the existing and younger consumer, reining in a subpar distribution channel, and focusing on retail efficiency and supply chain transformation with more flexibility, less pre-committed inventory, and more capacity open to late orders. Still, Ferragamo’s lack of critical mass versus very well-established competition in leather goods and generally a more competitively intense environment in footwear could make a turnaround challenging.

Financial Strengths

Ferragamo’s financial position is solid, with net cash on the balance sheet. Dividend payments have been suspended as the pandemic hit in 2020 and 2021 but resumed from 2022.

To consider a low use of debt to be appropriate, given the operating leverage of the business model (the estimation is around 60%-70% of operating expenses to be fixed in a normal environment) and its cyclicality (revenue declined by 10% during the financial crisis in 2009 and over 30% in 2020). The capital expenditures to be boosted in the near term to over 7% from 3%-5% in the recent five years, focusing on renovations, supply chains and technology, in line with new management’s strategic plan. To moderate after 2026. The average free cash flow margin to be around 9% (versus 7% in 2019 and 23% in 2021). The Ferragamo to be able to meet its financial obligations and business investment needs in the future.

Bulls Say

Ferragamo is an early entrant in emerging markets, with strong presence and brand recognition in Asia and South America. This positions it to benefit from middle-class growth in those markets.

Ferragamo has an above-industry presence in airport locations. Around half of luxury purchases are already done while travelling and the number of outbound travelers is expected to grow as incomes rise.

Ferragamo’s profitability could improve as new collections and store refurbishments drive improving store density (currently on the lower end of the peer group).

Company Description

Founded in 1927, Salvatore Ferragamo is an Italian monobrand company mainly known for its footwear and accessories. The company generates about 43% of revenue in the footwear category, 44% in leather goods, 6% in apparel, 6% in accessories. It was one of the pioneers in establishing a

presence in Asia, where it generates 38% of sales, and other emerging markets (6% of sales in Central and South America). Ferragamo generates 19% of revenue in Europe, 29% in the U.S., and 8% in Japan.

(Source: Morningstar)

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